Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:04 UTC
Transitioning: October downtrend checked by a sharp rebound · RSI 56 · price 1.41293
Triple top at 1.4299 resolved lower, Oct–Nov base broken to the upside.
The September rally capped in a triple top near 1.4299 through mid-October. The break of the 1.4196 neckline drove a three-week slide into a 1.3929–1.4068 base, with the swing low printed on Nov 4. Friday's jobs divergence (US NFP 165K vs Canada -4.7K) produced a ~127-pip outside-range day that cleared the range top and closed at 1.4129, back above EMA20 and a flattening EMA50, at the 50% retracement of the October–November drop.
Support: 1.4068, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.4158, 1.4196, 1.4299
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 1.4158 fib 61.8 opens the 1.4196 neckline as the next test of the October top structure
- A close back below the 1.4068 range top would mark Friday as a false break and return price to the base
- Loss of the 1.3929 swing low extends the lower-low sequence from the triple top
- US CPI and the BoC Summary of Deliberations, both on Tue Nov 10, could materially shift this read
19:26 UTC
October correction stalled, sharp rebound off a two-week base · RSI 58 · price 1.41293
Triple top at 1.4293–1.4299 led to a three-week decline. That decline found a base above 1.3929, and Friday's bar broke out of the base and back above the EMAs..
USD/CAD topped in mid-October after three daily tests of 1.4293–1.4299 failed (Oct high), then slid for three weeks to a 1.3929 swing low on Nov 4, where the decline flattened into a two-week base under the 1.4068 base top. Friday's jobs divergence (US NFP 165K vs Canada -4.7K) produced a 127-pip daily range that cleared the base top, the ema20 near 1.4051 and the Oct downtrend line in one session. Price now sits just above the 50% retracement of the Oct–Nov drop, with the 61.8% fib at 1.4158 the next reference overhead.
Support: 1.4068, 1.4051, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.4158, 1.4299
What it said to watch
- US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
- BoC Summary of Deliberations Tue Nov 10 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
- Daily close back below the 1.4068 base top returns price to the Nov range
- Daily close above the 61.8% fib at 1.4158 opens the path back toward the 1.4299 Oct high
- Failure to hold the 1.3929 swing low confirms a lower-low below the base