USDCAD has carved a sequence of lower highs from 1.3852 down to the 1.3572 swing low, with each push lower met by a basing attempt rather than a clean continuation. Price is now coiling between the range low near 1.3603 and the prior high at 1.3710, with last bar rejection from 1.3694 reinforcing supply overhead. ATR has compressed back to ~23 pips and RSI sits mid-range, consistent with a wedge-like consolidation inside a broader downtrend.
Support: 1.3572, 1.3603, 1.3643
Resistance: 1.3710, 1.3767, 1.3852
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3710 prior high invalidates the lower-high sequence
Break and hold below 1.3603 range low confirms downtrend continuation toward 1.3572 swing low
US CPI release this week could materially shift this read
05:01 UTC
Downtrend, attempting to base · RSI 52 · price 1.3689
Lower-highs intact, recent higher-low forming.
USDCAD has carved out a multi-week downtrend from 1.3860, with the late-April capitulation to 1.3550 followed by a basing attempt that now looks like a double bottom near the range floor. Price has reclaimed the EMA20 and pushed back to 1.3690, but the EMA50 around 1.3820 still caps and the swing high at 1.3710 is the immediate test. Firmer crude and a softer USD tone (per Monday's session commentary) are limiting follow-through on either side, keeping ATR compressed.
Support: 1.3580, 1.3550, 1.3497
Resistance: 1.3710, 1.3750, 1.3820
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3710 swing high opens path to the ema50 near 1.3820
Loss of 1.3580 swing low re-engages the downtrend toward the april low at 1.3497
Sustained crude strength keeps pressure on the range floor
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, basing attempt · RSI 49 · price 1.3685
Lower highs into 1.3580 base, early recovery.
Three weeks of lower highs from 1.3860 carried price into a 1.3580 swing low, where a double bottom formed and the bounce has reclaimed EMA20 around 1.3660. RSI lifted off oversold while price held the base, leaving a bullish divergence into the recovery, but EMA50 above near 1.3710 still caps the move. ATR(14) remains elevated at ~84 pips, so the basing attempt is still inside an active downtrend until the recent high gives way.
Support: 1.3580, 1.3650
Resistance: 1.3710, 1.3775
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3710 recent high would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.3580 swing low invalidates the double bottom read
Iran-Hormuz headlines remain a tail risk for USD and oil-linked CAD