1.4205–1.4285 range; false break to 1.4298 on Friday, lower highs since.
USDCAD held a 1.4205–1.4285 range from Tuesday to Thursday. Demand defended the week low twice, while a run of slightly lower highs capped the range top. Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs shock sent price to the 1.4298 week high in the NY session, but the move slipped back below the range top within hours, a false break followed by lower highs. Sunday's gap high near 1.4273 has already faded toward the gap fill at 1.4254, leaving price at the 38.2% retrace of the jobs spike, just above EMA(20) at 1.4256 and EMA(50) at 1.4245.
Support: 1.4254, 1.4245, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4273, 1.4285, 1.4298
What it said to watch
A full gap fill to Friday's 1.4254 close and an H1 close below EMA(20) would extend the post-spike fade toward the 50% retrace near 1.4252
An H1 close back above the 1.4273 gap high and the 1.4285 range top reopens the 1.4298 week high and 1.4300
Failure to hold EMA(50) near 1.4245 shifts focus back to the 1.4205 week low
BoC's Macklem Tue 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:05 UTC
Sideways, holding upper half of range · RSI 58 · price 1.42653
1.4205–1.4300 range; Friday spike rejected below 1.43, Sunday gap up.
USDCAD has spent the week inside a 1.4205–1.4300 range, with demand stepping in at the week low after Tuesday's London-NY transition drop and again in Friday's Asia session. The -68.3K Canadian jobs miss drove Friday's 12:00 UTC spike through the lower highs line to the 1.4298 week high, but supply capped it under 1.4300 and price faded back to the Friday close at the 50% retracement of that impulse. Sunday's open gapped up to 1.4270, sitting above EMA(20) near 1.4255 with RSI(14) at 58.
Support: 1.4254, 1.4241, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4298
What it said to watch
H1 close below the Friday close at 1.4254 fills the weekend gap and exposes the 61.8% fib near 1.4241
Prior highs at 1.4280 are the area to watch for rejection or break
An H1 close above the week high at 1.4298 breaks the repeated 1.43 cap and ends the range read
Failure at 1.4205 week low would break the range floor
Macklem Tue 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
1.4205–1.4285 range since Tuesday; spike above range top rejected.
USDCAD has rotated inside a 1.4205–1.4285 range from Tuesday to Friday, with NY sessions driving both the Tuesday and Thursday drops and the Wednesday rally. Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss spiked the pair to a 1.4298 week high just under 1.43. Price could not hold above the range top, which leaves a false break, and the post-LFS fade has since pulled back to the 50% fib of Friday's impulse, right on EMA(20) near 1.4251. RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-50s from the spike.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4223, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4298
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.4251 ema20 and the 61.8% fib near 1.4241 exposes the pre-lfs base at 1.4223, then the range floor at 1.4205
Acceptance above the 1.4285 range top and 1.4298 week high would turn the false break into a range break toward 1.4300
BoC Macklem Tue 06:05 UTC is the first BoC reaction to the jobs miss and could materially shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.6% y/y) is the week's main USD risk to the range