Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:05 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 1.4300 · RSI 70 · price 1.42861
HH/HL chain since Sep 8 low, now a 6-session range 1.4205–1.4298.
The month-long uptrend began at the Sep 8 low, which completed a double bottom with the Aug 21 trough near 1.3730. The Aug–Oct rally has added roughly 560 pips and cleared the June–July highs near 1.4248, with the CAD selloff fed by a wide US-Canada rate spread. Since Oct 5, price has consolidated between the range low at 1.4205 and the range high at 1.4298, an 18-month high. Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss pushed the latest close to 1.4286, near the top of the range, with RSI near 70 showing momentum stretched as the advance stalls.
Support: 1.4205, 1.4135, 1.4082
Resistance: 1.4298, 1.4400
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 1.4298 range high opens the path to the 1.4400 round number
- Close below the 1.4205 range low exposes the Sep 28 swing low at 1.4135 and the 38.2% fib of the Aug–Oct rally at 1.4082
- Macklem (Wed 06:05 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
- RSI rolling below 60 while price holds the range would mark the advance losing momentum
18:37 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below 1.4300 · RSI 71 · price 1.42871
Double-bottom breakout, now a two-week box 1.4205–1.4300.
Uptrend since the late-August and early-September double bottom at 1.3732/1.3759. The break of the 1.3939 neckline carried price through the June highs near 1.4248, and EMA(50) has turned higher beneath price. Since late September the advance has slowed into a 1.4205–1.4300 consolidation, with six daily highs capped just under the 1.4300 18m high, and RSI near 71 shows stretched momentum; Friday's -68.3K Canadian jobs miss lifted the pair back to the top of the box.
Support: 1.4205, 1.4128, 1.3939
Resistance: 1.4300, 1.4400
What it said to watch
- D1 close above the 1.4300 18m high clears the supply capping since late September and opens the 1.4400 round number
- D1 close below the 1.4205 range low ends the consolidation and exposes the 1.4128 july high and the 38.2% Sep rally fib near 1.4080
- The steep Sep rally line has already given way to sideways trade; a move back under 1.4128 would turn that into a deeper retracement
- Loss of the 1.3939 neckline, near the 61.8% Sep rally fib, would negate the double bottom
- Macklem Wed 06:05 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Canada CPI follows Mon Oct 19