USDCAD spent three weeks ranging between 1.4170 and 1.4250 before decisively breaking the 1.41 pivot, printing a fresh low at 1.40244. The move follows soft US CPI/PPI that unwound stretched USD longs while firm oil underpinned CAD, and ATR(14) has expanded on the impulse. Price trades well below EMA20 and EMA50 with the shorter average crossing under — structure is a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
Support: 1.40244, 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4130, 1.4250
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.41 pivot would negate the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.40244 confirms continuation toward the 1.40 psych level
Canada CPI Mon 20 Jul and US Retail Sales Thu could materially shift this read
USDCAD has rolled over out of a two-week 1.4180-1.4250 range and accelerated lower after slicing the 1.41 pivot, printing a fresh cycle low at 1.4024. The move fits the CAD-firm backdrop of higher oil and a softer USD following the cool US CPI/PPI prints. ATR(14) is expanding as the down-leg extends, with price trading well below both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.4024, 1.3970, 1.3850
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4130, 1.4250
What it said to watch
Reclaim and H4 close above 1.4100 pivot would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.4024 opens the path toward 1.3970 (50-dma)
Canada CPI on Jul 20 12:30 UTC is the next material driver for this pair
USDCAD rolled over from the 1.4250 area and sliced through the 1.4100 round level and the 1.4130 pivot as soft US CPI/PPI and an oil-driven CAD bid weighed all week. Price is now probing the 1.4039 swing low with successive lower highs and price pinned under both EMAs. ATR remains contained, so the move is grinding rather than blowing out.
Support: 1.4039, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Decisive H4 close below 1.4039 swing low opens the path toward the 50-day ma near 1.3970
Reclaim of the 1.4100 round level and 1.4130 pivot would ease downside pressure
Thursday US Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
USDCAD rolled over from the 1.4250 region and has printed successive lower highs and lows, slicing through the 1.41 breakdown level and the 1.4130 pivot into a fresh 1.4039 swing low. The move follows soft US CPI/PPI misses undercutting the dollar while an oil bid keeps CAD firm. Price sits well below both EMAs with RSI in oversold territory, showing sellers in control.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4130, 1.4250
What it said to watch
A decisive H4 close below 1.4039 swing low opens the path toward the 1.3970 50-day ma
Recovery back above 1.41 breakdown / 1.4130 pivot would ease the downside pressure
US Retail Sales Thursday 12:30 UTC is a high-impact event that could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since mid-window rollover.
USDCAD has rolled over from the 1.4245 region and broken down out of the multi-day 1.4180-1.4250 range, printing a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows into a 4-wk low at 1.4040 — the move carried by the oil surge and back-to-back soft US CPI/PPI. Price sits below both EMAs with ATR expanding, and a modest bounce off 1.4040 has stalled below the broken 1.4130 support. Structure is firmly bearish while capped under 1.4130.
Support: 1.4040, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4130, 1.4185
What it said to watch
BoC decision (13:45 UTC) + Warsh testimony (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read within the next bar
H4 close back above 1.4130 broken sup would ease the breakdown; reclaim of the 1.4185 lower high challenges the downtrend
Failure to hold 1.4040 4-wk low opens the path toward the 1.4000 psych pivot
USDCAD has broken down out of the two-week 1.4150-1.4240 range, printing successive lower highs and lows into 1.4069 as CAD firms on rising oil and back-to-back soft US CPI/PPI prints. Price is now hugging the 1.4039 swing low with the broken range base at 1.4150 flipping to resistance overhead. ATR(14) around 24 pips reflects the impulse expansion off the range, with the 1.40 psych level the next reference below.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4150, 1.4240
What it said to watch
BoC rate decision + MPR at 13:45 UTC today could materially shift this read within the next bar
An H4 close back above 1.4150 range base invalidates the breakdown
A close below the 1.40 psych level confirms extension of the lower-low sequence
Lower highs and lower lows; broke a multi-week range.
USDCAD rolled over out of the 1.4180-1.4240 range that held for most of the window and has printed a clean series of lower highs into the four-week low at 1.4040. The slide reflects firm oil and last week's Canadian jobs beat against a softer USD after the CPI miss, with EMA20 now below EMA50 confirming the bearish swing shift. Price is probing the 1.4040 shelf with RSI near oversold but no reversal structure yet.
Support: 1.4040, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4120, 1.4155
What it said to watch
BoC rate decision + MPR at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close below 1.4040 four-week low opens the path to the 1.4000 psych level
Reclaim of 1.4120 prior support would negate the range break
USDCAD has broken below the multi-week 1.4165-1.4235 band and pressed to a four-week low at 1.4040, with CAD firm on rising oil and a soft US CPI print flushing USD lower. Price trades below both EMAs and the ATR has expanded on the way down, consistent with trend extension rather than compression. RSI sits in oversold territory but shows no divergence yet.
Support: 1.4040
Resistance: 1.4165, 1.4235
What it said to watch
BoC decision + MPR at 13:45 UTC today could materially shift this read
Break/hold of the 1.4040 four-week low defines momentum
H4 reclaim of 1.4165 prior support would neutralise the downtrend read
USDCAD has rolled over from the 1.4238-1.4247 range top, breaking the prior 1.4155 shelf and printing successive lower lows into a fresh 4-week low at 1.4039. The slide reflects oil-driven CAD strength and the soft US June CPI print, with price now trading well below both EMAs and RSI pressing oversold. ATR is expanding as the down-leg accelerates.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4092, 1.4155, 1.4238
What it said to watch
BoC rate decision + MPR at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Break below 1.4000 round number opens further downside
Recovery above 1.4092 broken support would ease the downside pressure
USDCAD spent nearly two weeks pinned in a 1.4155-1.4247 range before breaking sharply lower this week to 4-week lows near 1.4039. The drop tracks CAD strength from surging crude and the soft US June CPI print, with price now well below both EMA20 and EMA50. ATR(14) has expanded on the breakdown, and RSI is stretched into oversold territory.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4090, 1.4155, 1.4247
What it said to watch
BoC rate decision + MPR at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
A close below 1.4039 confirms downside continuation
Recovery back above 1.4155 range floor would negate the breakdown
US PPI at 12:30 UTC feeds directly into the softer-USD theme
USDCAD has rolled over from the 1.4247 multi-day high into a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows, accelerating this week as soft US June CPI weighed on the dollar and firm oil plus a jobs beat kept CAD supported. Price has broken the 1.4130 support pivot and printed a fresh swing low at 1.4047, trading below both EMA20 and EMA50. ATR(14) is expanding with the decline, and RSI sits in oversold territory.
Support: 1.40473, 1.4000, 1.39922
Resistance: 1.4130, 1.4171, 1.42476
What it said to watch
A close back above 1.4130 would neutralise the breakout and reopen 1.4171
Failure to hold 1.4047 confirms continuation toward the 1.4000 round number
US PPI 12:30 UTC and Warsh testimony 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, extending · RSI 32 · price 1.40534
Range floor broken, lower highs and lows.
USDCAD rolled over from the 1.4247 area and has now sliced through the 1.4130 floor that capped the multi-week 1.4130-1.4250 range, extending losses to a 1.4047 swing low. The move fits a firm CAD on oil strength and the June jobs beat against a soft USD after this week's downside CPI miss. ATR(14) is expanding as the trend extends, with price trading well below both the EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.40473, 1.4000, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.4130, 1.4200
What it said to watch
BoC rate decision + MPR could materially shift this read
A close back above 1.4130 broken floor would neutralise the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.4047 swing low opens 1.4000 psych then 50-dma near 1.3950