V-shaped reversal from 1.4228, higher lows into Friday close.
USDCAD fell below the Asian range to a 1.4228 ppi low after the soft US PPI. That break failed, and price climbed through NY to a 1.42737 session high into the Friday close, back above the 1.4270 London high. Price sits above the ema20 and ema50 with RSI(14) at 62.3 and ATR compressed to 4.3 pips. The recovery trend and fib off the ppi low frame the structure into the weekend.
Support: 1.42651, 1.42633, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.42737, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Holding the 1.42633 swing low and the recovery trend keeps the higher-low chain intact. A break puts ema50 1.42609 and the 1.4250 area in play.
Acceptance above the 1.42737 session high opens the 1.4300 round number and the 1.4299 high.
Fed's Jefferson speaks at 00:00 UTC with FX shut. Weekend headlines raise gap risk at the Asia open.
Canada CPI Mon 13:30 UTC and Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
Higher lows off the NY low, stalling at the London high.
The softer US PPI drove a sweep below the Asian range to the NY low at 1.4228. Price then recovered the whole move in a steady NY rally, holding above the rising ema20 and ema50. Late NY probed above the London high at 1.4270 to a session high of 1.4274 but slipped back under it as ATR(14) compressed to 4.3 pips and RSI held near 62.
Support: 1.42651, 1.42609, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.42702, 1.42737, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4274 session high extends the NY rally toward the 1.4300 round number
Failure to hold the ema20 near 1.4265 and the trendline support breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the ema50 at 1.4261
Fed's Jefferson in ~90 minutes, with Friday close liquidity thin ahead of Monday's Canada CPI, could materially shift this read
22:25 UTC
Uptrend off PPI low, momentum flattening · RSI 62 · price 1.42695
Higher lows since 1.4228; pressing London high in thin late-NY trade.
The soft US PPI print knocked USDCAD through the Asian low to a 1.4228 ppi low. That false break fully reversed, and a higher-low chain carried price to a 1.4274 session high, marginally above the 1.4270 london high. Price holds above the ema20 at 1.4265 with RSI(14) at 62. ATR has compressed to 4.3 pips in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 1.42651, 1.42633, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.42737, 1.42702, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4263 swing low and rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain, opening the 38.2% PPI-low fib near 1.4256
Acceptance above the 1.4274 session high puts the 1.4300 round number in view; failure keeps the london high area capping
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could jolt thin liquidity
Weekend gap risk into Monday's Canada CPI (13:30 UTC) and Warsh (17:00 UTC)
21:48 UTC
Uptrend, volatility compressing into Friday close · RSI 64 · price 1.42691
Higher lows from the 1.4228 PPI low; late wick at the session high.
The soft US PPI print knocked USD/CAD to a 1.4228 PPI low early in NY hours. Price then built higher lows along a rising line and retook the London high near 1.4270. The late push to a 1.4274 session high left a rejection wick, with RSI(14) at 63.8 and ATR down to 4.5 pips as price holds above the ema20 at 1.4265 into Friday's close.
Support: 1.42646, 1.42633, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.42737, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4263 swing low, and the ema20 just above it, breaks the higher-low chain and the rising line.
A close above the 1.4274 session high opens the 1.4300 round number cited in the digest as the 1.4299 cap.
A full retracement toward the 1.4228 PPI low would erase the NY recovery.
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and weekend gap risk ahead of Monday's Canada CPI (13:30 UTC) and Warsh could materially shift this read.
Higher lows since the PPI low, now compressing under the session high.
The soft US PPI at 13:30 UTC knocked USDCAD to 1.4228. NY hours fully reversed the drop, putting in a higher low at the 1.4252 swing low and a rebound high at 1.4269, just under the 1.4270 session high. Late NY price is compressing in a 1.4264–1.4269 band, holding the range low and the ema20 at 1.4263, with ATR down to 4.4 pips and RSI(14) at 62.
Support: 1.42643, 1.42627, 1.42522
Resistance: 1.42702, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4270 session high opens the path to the 1.4300 round number.
Loss of the 1.4264 range low and the ema20 exposes the 1.4252 swing low. A break there breaks the rebound line and the higher-low chain.
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift this read in thin Friday-close liquidity.
20:31 UTC
Uptrend off the PPI low, momentum flattening · RSI 61 · price 1.42665
Higher lows since 14:45 UTC, tight consolidation just under the London high.
The soft US PPI print knocked the pair below the Asian range to a 1.4228 low, but NY hours fully retraced the drop on a higher-low chain along a rising trendline. Late NY is now compressing in a 5-pip band between the 1.4264 micro low and the 1.4270 London high, with price above a rising ema20 (1.4262). RSI(14) is cooling to 61 and ATR is down to 4.6 pips from 6.9.
Support: 1.42643, 1.42622, 1.42522
Resistance: 1.42702, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4270 London high puts the 1.4300 round number in view
Loss of the 1.4264 micro low and the ema20 at 1.4262 breaks the rising trendline and ends the consolidation
Break below the 1.4252 swing low negates the higher-low chain off the PPI low
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, then Monday's Canada CPI, could materially shift this read
Higher lows from the 1.4228 NY low, retesting the London high.
The soft US PPI at 13:30 UTC knocked USD/CAD to a 1.4228 swing low. NY then retraced the whole drop on a higher-low chain and is now retesting the 1.4270 London high late in the session, holding above the 1.4264 micro low and the ema20 at 1.4262. ATR(14) has compressed from 6.9 to 4.7 pips into the Friday close and RSI(14) has eased to 61 from 65, so momentum is fading at the level.
Support: 1.4264, 1.4262, 1.4252
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4270 london high clears the session high and opens the 1.4300 round number
Rejection at 1.4270 plus a loss of the 1.4264 micro low and ema20 at 1.4262 would mark a lower high against the London high
Break of the 1.4252 higher low, near the 38.2–50% of the NY rally fib, undoes the recovery structure
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC into thin late-Friday liquidity could shift this read
V-shaped NY rebound from the post-PPI low, now retesting the London high.
The 13:30 UTC PPI miss pushed USD/CAD through the asian low at 1.4252 to a ppi low of 1.4228. That break was fully reversed during NY hours, and late in the session price is retesting the london high at 1.4270, where the latest bar was capped at 1.42694. Price holds above the ema20 at 1.4261, RSI(14) has cooled from 65 to 61.1 and ATR(14) has compressed to 4.9 pips.
Support: 1.42612, 1.4252, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4270 london high opens the 1.4300 round number, the digest's upside cap.
Losing the ema20 at 1.4261 and then the 1.4252 asian low puts the 50% of the NY rebound fib near 1.4249 in focus.
A break back below the 1.4228 ppi low negates the false-break read.
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift this read in thin Friday liquidity; Canada CPI is Monday.
19:46 UTC
Recovering uptrend off the PPI low, momentum steady · RSI 65 · price 1.42687
V-recovery with higher lows, pressing the session high.
The soft US PPI at 13:30 UTC broke the asian low and ran to the 1.4228 ppi low, then fully reversed during NY hours on a chain of higher lows. Late NY, price is retesting the 1.4270 session high above a rising ema20 (1.4261), with RSI(14) at 65 and ATR compressing to 4.9 pips.
Support: 1.42606, 1.4252, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.42702, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4270 session high opens the 1.4300 round number
Loss of the ema20 at 1.4261 and the higher lows line turns the read to range
Back below the 1.4252 asian low puts the recovery fib 61.8% near 1.4244 in play
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift the read into the close
19:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum steady into late NY · RSI 64 · price 1.42672
V-recovery from PPI low, higher lows, pressing day high.
The soft US PPI headline at 13:30 UTC pushed price through the London low to the 1.4228 PPI low. That break failed, and the move was fully retraced during NY hours as the hawkish-Fed USD bid held. Price is now late-NY at 1.4267, just under the 1.4270 day high, with RSI(14) at 64. ATR has compressed to 5.1 pips and the ema20 at 1.4260 is rising beneath.
Support: 1.42597, 1.42522, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.42702, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4270 day high opens the path to the 1.4300 round number
Loss of the ema20 at 1.4260, then the 1.4252 swing low, breaks the higher-low chain off the 1.4228 PPI low
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift the read in thin post-NY trade
Canada CPI on Mon 13:30 UTC is the next major CAD-side risk
19:16 UTC
Uptrend since NY low, momentum firm but ATR compressing · RSI 65 · price 1.42675
V-shaped recovery from post-PPI low; higher-low chain pressing the London high.
The soft-headline PPI drop broke the Asian range low and ran to a post-PPI low at 1.4228, but the move failed and the pair has climbed back through late NY hours on a higher-low chain, now just under the london high at 1.4270. Price sits above both EMAs with RSI(14) at 65 and ATR easing to 5.3 pips as the rally slows into resistance.
Support: 1.4261, 1.42589, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.42702, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4270 london high opens the 1.4300 psych cap cited in the news
Break of the 1.4261 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain; ema20 at 1.4259 sits just beneath
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift the USD leg into the weekly close
19:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend since NY low, pressing session high · RSI 64 · price 1.42674
V-recovery from post-PPI false break; higher lows stacked into the 1.4270 range top.
The softer US PPI print at 13:30 UTC pushed USDCAD through the Asian low near 1.4250 to a 1.4228 NY low, with RSI at 22. The move was fully retraced during NY hours on a rising trendline of higher lows. Price now retests the 1.4270 session high from above ema20 (1.4258), with ATR compressing to 5.6 pips into the late-Friday session.
Support: 1.4258, 1.4250, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4270 session high clears today's range top and opens the 1.4300 round number
Loss of ema20 at 1.4258 and the NY trendline puts the 1.4250 Asian low back in play
Break below the 1.4228 NY low negates the false break read
Fed's Jefferson speaks at 00:00 UTC (~5h) into thin late-Friday liquidity
18:46 UTC
V-shaped recovery from the post-PPI low, momentum firm · RSI 64 · price 1.42656
Higher lows since 1.4228, price pressing the 1.4270 London high.
The softer US PPI print at 13:30 UTC flushed USDCAD through the Asian and London lows to the 1.4228 PPI low, but NY reclaimed about 90% of the PPI drop on a recovery line of higher lows. Late in the NY session, price is pressing the 1.4270 London high, above both EMAs with RSI(14) at 63.5, while ATR(14) has eased to 5.8 pips from 6.9.
Support: 1.4257, 1.42522, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.42702, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4270 London high opens the path to the 1.4300 psych level and the 1.4299 prior high.
A rejection at the London high that loses the 1.4252 swing low breaks the recovery line, with ema20 at 1.4257 the first test.
Failure to hold above the 1.4228 PPI low would turn the post-PPI false break into a lower low.
Jefferson speaks at 00:00 UTC into thin post-NY trade; Canada CPI on Mon 13:30 UTC is the larger risk to this read.
V-shaped NY recovery from PPI low, higher lows into resistance.
The slightly soft US PPI at 13:30 UTC drove a false break below the London low to the 1.4228 ppi low. NY hours then fully reversed it, putting price back above the ema20 at 1.4256 as it crosses over the ema50, with RSI at 59.5 and ATR easing to 5.9 pips. Late NY is stalling at the recent high of 1.4266, just under the 1.4270 london high.
Support: 1.4256, 1.42522, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.42659, 1.42702
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4270 london high clears the session top and puts 1.4300 in view
Rejection at the 1.4266 recent high and a slip back below the ema20 at 1.4256 stalls the recovery
Failure to hold the 1.4252 swing low (recovery line, near the 38.2% of the recovery fib) undercuts the higher-low chain toward the 1.4228 ppi low
Fed's Jefferson speaks at 00:00 UTC, and thin late-Friday liquidity could exaggerate moves
18:15 UTC
Intraday rebound, higher lows since PPI dip · RSI 60 · price 1.42633
V-recovery from 1.4228 back inside the prior 1.4249–1.4270 range.
The soft US PPI headline knocked the pair through the day's range floor to a 1.4228 ppi low. That break failed: NY hours produced a steady higher-low chain back above the ema20 and ema50, which are converging near 1.4255, and a session high at 1.4265. RSI(14) recovered from 22 to 60 and ATR is easing to 6.1 pips as the rebound matures, with the move now pressing the top of the PPI drop fib just below the 1.4270 day high.
Support: 1.42553, 1.42522, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.42652, 1.42702
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4270 day high takes price out of the 24h range
Rejection at the 1.4265 session high with a break of the 1.4252 swing low ends the higher-low chain
Loss of the rebound trendline and ema20 (1.4255) reopens the 1.4228 ppi low
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, in roughly 6h, could shift the read into the weekly close
18:02 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since PPI · RSI 63 · price 1.42636
V-shaped rebound from 1.4228 low, higher-low chain under 1.4270 session high.
The slightly soft US PPI at 13:30 UTC pushed USDCAD below the London low to a 1.4228 ppi low. That break failed, and a steady chain of higher lows through NY hours reclaimed both EMAs, with the ema20 at 1.4255 now rising. Price is pressing back toward the 1.4270 session high, RSI(14) at 62.8 after an oversold 22 dip, and ATR easing to 6.2 pips.
Support: 1.42545, 1.42522, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.42702
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4270 session high marks a fresh day high and extends the recovery line
Failure to hold the 1.4252 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and reopens the 1.4228 ppi low
Rejection at 1.4270 would leave price ranging between the session high and the ema20
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~6h) could shift the read into the weekly close
17:45 UTC
V-shaped recovery after PPI dip, momentum rebuilding · RSI 58 · price 1.42597
Higher lows off the NY low, price at the 78.6% retrace of the PPI drop.
The soft US PPI print at 13:30 UTC triggered a false break below 1.4250 to a 1.4228 NY low, with RSI(14) bottoming at 22.4. Price has since retraced to the 78.6% of the London high–NY low drop near 1.4260 and sits back above both EMAs. Late NY trade is pressing the 1.4262 recent high, with the rising NY-low trendline and the 1.4252 swing low underneath.
Support: 1.42544, 1.42522, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.42617, 1.42702
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4262 recent high puts the 1.4270 London high back in play
Loss of the 1.4252 swing low and ema50 at 1.4254 breaks the NY-low trendline and reopens 1.4228
ATR(14) has expanded to 6.7 pips from 4.6 pre-PPI, so expect wider intraday swings into the NY close
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift the read in thin Asia trade
17:31 UTC
Intraday recovery after PPI flush, rising lows · RSI 58 · price 1.42599
False break below Asian/London lows reclaimed; back inside Asian range.
Soft US PPI at 13:30 UTC sent price through the London low to a 1.4228 NY low. The drop was fully reclaimed and price now sits back inside the 1.4252–1.4268 Asian range, above ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 58 and ATR up to 6.7 pips from 4.6. Rising lows since 1.4228 run into supply at the 1.4262 rebound high, with the 1.4270 session high above.
Support: 1.42544, 1.42522, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.42617, 1.42702
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4262 rebound high exposes the 1.4270 session high
Break of the 1.4252 swing low and ema50 at 1.4254 snaps the rising-lows sequence
Loss of the rising-lows trendline reopens the ny rebound fib retracement toward 1.4245
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC; Canada CPI Mon 13:30 UTC is the larger swing risk
The soft US PPI headline at 13:30 UTC knocked USDCAD from the 1.4270 London high to a 1.4228 PPI low, with RSI(14) at 22.4. The drop proved a false break and was faded into late NY, with a higher-low chain carrying price to a 1.4262 rebound high. Price is now holding just above the ema50 at 1.4254 and the ema20 at 1.4252, with ATR(14) expanded to 6.8 pips and RSI back to a neutral 53.9.
Support: 1.42541, 1.42504, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.42617, 1.42702
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 higher low breaks the rebound sequence and exposes the 50% fib near 1.4245, then the 1.4228 PPI low
M15 close above the 1.4262 rebound high reopens the 1.4270 London high
Loss of the ema50 at 1.4254 and the higher-lows trendline would signal the recovery stalling
Fed's Daly speaking now and Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could jolt USD pricing in thin post-London-close trade
False break below the 1.4249 range floor, V-rebound back inside the range.
The soft US PPI at 13:30 UTC pushed USDCAD through the 1.4249 range floor to a 1.4228 session low. The break failed: NY reclaimed the range and retraced about 80% of the drop from the 1.4270 London high before stalling at the 1.4262 rebound high. Price holds just above the ema50 (1.4254) and the 61.8% fib, with RSI back at 54 from a 22 oversold dip and ATR expanded to 6.8 pips.
Support: 1.42541, 1.4249, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.42617, 1.42702
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4249 range floor revives the post-PPI break and puts the 1.4228 session low back in focus
Loss of the rebound line from the 1.4228 low signals the recovery is fading
Close above the 1.4262 rebound high opens a retest of the 1.4270 London high
Fed's Daly speaking now and Jefferson at Sat 00:00 UTC could jolt USD into a thin Friday close
Canada CPI Mon 13:30 UTC is the next major risk for this range
16:46 UTC
V-shaped recovery after PPI-driven drop · RSI 57 · price 1.42585
Higher lows off the 1.4228 NY low, back inside the London range.
The soft US PPI headline at the NY open broke the London lows near 1.4249 and ran to a 1.4228 NY low. That break failed: price rebuilt along a recovery line of higher lows and is back above the ema20 and ema50, past the 61.8% of the London high-to-NY low drop, with RSI(14) up from 22 to 57 and ATR expanded to 6.9 pips. It is now testing the pre-PPI area at 1.4260.
Support: 1.4254, 1.4251, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.4260, 1.4270
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly speaks at 17:00 UTC, which could materially shift this read
An M15 close above 1.4260 pre-PPI area exposes the 1.4270 London high
A break of the recovery line and a close back below the ema50 at 1.4254 and ema20 at 1.4251 would undo the false-break read
Loss of the 1.4228 NY low would confirm a lower-low
16:31 UTC
Range, recovering from a post-PPI flush · RSI 50 · price 1.42513
False break below 24h range floor, V-recovery stalling under ema50.
Soft US PPI at 13:30 UTC, with firmer oil supporting CAD, pushed price through the 1.4249 range floor to a 1.4228 session low in NY hours. Price then V-recovered to sit just above the ema20 at 1.4250. The bounce met rejection at the 1.4257 rebound high near the 61.8% fib, with the ema50 at 1.4254 overhead. RSI(14) is back to 49.7 from 22.4 and ATR(14) has expanded to 6.8 pips.
Support: 1.42502, 1.42417, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.42538, 1.42566, 1.42702
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4242 ppi low reopens the 1.4228 session low and weakens the false-break read
Acceptance above the ema50 and the 1.4257 rebound high puts the 1.4270 day high back in play
Fed's Daly at 17:00 UTC could jolt the post-London-close tape
Canada CPI Mon 13:30 UTC is the bigger risk to the range
16:16 UTC
Ranging, recovering from a PPI-driven flush · RSI 50 · price 1.42502
False break below 1.4250 range floor, reclaimed and now retesting it.
The soft US PPI at 13:30 UTC broke the 1.4250 range floor and extended to the 1.4228 PPI low in the first hour of NY, with RSI(14) bottoming at 22.4. Price then reclaimed the floor, and the recovery line from that low held. The rebound high at 1.4257 sits just above the ema50 (1.4254) and the 61.8% of the London high to PPI low drop. Price is now retesting the range floor at the ema20 (1.4250), with ATR expanded to 6.9 pips.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.42539, 1.42566, 1.42702
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.4250 range floor and ema20 turns the reclaim into a failed retest and reopens the 1.4228 PPI low
A break of the recovery line from the 1.4228 low would undercut the rebound structure
A close above the 1.4257 rebound high and the ema50 puts the 1.4270 London high back in reach
Fed's Daly speaks at 17:00 UTC in thin post-London trade and could shift this read
Range break lower, retest of range base from below.
The softer US PPI headline at 13:30 UTC broke USDCAD below the 1.4249–1.4270 range that held through Asia and London. Price printed a 1.4228 PPI low, then a higher low at 1.4242, and NY has since lifted it back to the range base at the flat ema20 near 1.4250. RSI(14) has recovered from 22 to 48 and ATR has expanded to 6.9 pips, with the ema50/61.8% retrace of the session high-to-PPI low drop sitting just above at 1.4254.
Support: 1.4242, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.4249, 1.4254, 1.4270
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4254 (ema50/61.8%) puts price inside the prior range and reopens the 1.4270 session high
Rejection at the 1.4249 range base keeps the break intact; losing the 1.4242 higher low exposes the 1.4228 PPI low
Fed's Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Bowman remarks still being digested
Rebound higher-low line from 1.4228 to 1.4242 is the near-term support trendline
15:46 UTC
Down-leg after range break, rebounding · RSI 47 · price 1.42478
1.4249–1.4270 range broken lower on PPI, retracing toward base.
The soft headline US PPI at 13:30 UTC broke the day's 1.4249–1.4270 range lower, and the NY-hours extension to a 1.4228 day low was bought back to the 50% fib of the London session high-to-low move. Price is now retesting the old range base just under ema20 (1.4250). RSI(14) recovered from 22 to 47, while ATR expanded to 6.8 pips.
Support: 1.4242, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.42499, 1.42542, 1.42702
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman in minutes could swing the retest of the 1.4250 range base
M15 close above ema50 / 61.8% fib near 1.4254 puts price back inside the range
Failure back below the 1.4242 ppi bar low reopens the 1.4228 day low
Session high 1.4270 caps the range top if the rebound extends
15:30 UTC
Down after the PPI break, sharp rebound underway · RSI 46 · price 1.42472
Range break lower, now retesting the range floor from below.
The softer US PPI print at 13:30 UTC broke the day's 1.4249–1.4270 range lower, and the NY low printed at 1.4228 with RSI(14) washed out at 22.4. Price has since retraced about 64% of the drop and is pressing the old range floor near 1.4249. It sits just below EMA20 (1.4250) and the ema50 at 1.42544, while ATR has expanded to 6.7 pips from 4.4.
Support: 1.42417, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.4249, 1.42544, 1.42702
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.4249 range floor and the ema50 at 1.4254 would turn the PPI move into a false break, with the 1.4270 london high next
Rejection at the range floor followed by a loss of the 1.4242 ppi low would reopen the 1.4228 ny low
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC could shift this read within the next few bars
15:15 UTC
Downtrend after range break, bounce off lows · RSI 33 · price 1.42371
Broke 1.4249 range low on PPI; lower highs, 1.4228 session low.
The softer US PPI print at 13:30 UTC broke the 1.4249–1.4270 range, and the PPI leg ran from the 1.4270 session high to a 1.4228 session low before an NY-session bounce. Price sits below the ema20 (1.4250) and ema50 (1.4255) after a bearish ema cross. RSI(14) has recovered to 32.5 from 22.4 and ATR has expanded to 6.4 pips, with the old range low now overhead along the descending highs.
Support: 1.4228, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4249, 1.42547, 1.42702
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 1.4249 range low would turn the breakdown into a false break and put the ema50 at 1.4255 in play
Failure to hold the 1.4228 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 round number
A move through the descending highs and the 1.4270 session high negates the post-PPI downtrend read
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after range break · RSI 22 · price 1.42338
Lower highs from London high; day range broken lower post-PPI.
The softer-than-expected US PPI at 13:30 UTC broke the 1.4249–1.4270 day range lower. That extended a lower-highs sequence off the 1.4270 london high to a 1.4228 session low in the first hours of NY. RSI(14) at 22.4 is oversold, ATR has expanded to 6.1 pips, and price sits below both EMAs, with the ema20 at 1.4252 just above the broken range low.
Support: 1.4228, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42488, 1.42516, 1.42702
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 1.4249 range low (50% fib of the post-PPI leg) would mark a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4228 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
A close above the lower-highs trendline and the ema20 at 1.4252 would break the intraday sequence
Range break lower after PPI; lower highs since London high at 1.4270.
The softer US PPI print at 13:30 UTC knocked USD/CAD out of the 1.4249–1.4271 range that had held through Asia and London. The NY session extended to a session low at 1.4232, with price below both EMAs, RSI(14) oversold at 25.8 and ATR expanding to 5.9 pips.
Support: 1.42322, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42417, 1.42488, 1.42537
What it said to watch
A recovery above the 1.4249 range low would turn the PPI move into a false break
The 1.4242 PPI low is first overhead; failure there keeps the lower-high sequence from the London high intact
Reclaiming ema20 at 1.4254 neutralises the break
Below the session low, 1.4200 psych is the next reference
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Downside break, price below both EMAs · RSI 35 · price 1.42467
24h range floor broken on PPI, basing just beneath it.
The soft US PPI headline at 13:30 UTC pushed USD/CAD through the day's 1.4249 range floor to a 1.4242 PPI low. Early NY is basing just under the broken floor, below the ema20 (1.4256) and ema50, with RSI(14) at 34.9 and ATR up to 5.5 pips from ~4.4. Descending highs off the 1.4270 London high have capped every bounce since.
Support: 1.42417, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42488, 1.42555, 1.42702
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4249 range floor returns price to the range and weakens the break
Failure to hold the 1.4242 PPI low extends the break, with 1.4200 psych the next round number
Reclaiming the ema20 at 1.4256 and the descending highs line near 1.4262 would neutralise the downside read
A move toward the 1.4270 London high is needed to retest the top of the prior range
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Short-term downtrend after range break · RSI 36 · price 1.42483
24h 1.4250–1.4271 range broken lower on PPI; lower highs since London high.
The soft US PPI headline (0.3% m/m vs 0.4%) pushed USDCAD through the 1.4250 range floor to a 1.4242 PPI low in the first hour of NY. Price is now retesting that broken low from beneath, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 36 off 64 and ATR expanding to 5.5 pips. Lower highs have stepped down from the 1.4270 session high since late London, capping the fib 38.2% near 1.4253.
Support: 1.42417, 1.4240
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.42564, 1.42702
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4250 broken low negates the range break
Failure to hold the 1.4242 PPI low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4240 round number
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.4256, the 50% fib, breaks the lower-high trendline
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
14:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London high · RSI 33 · price 1.42468
Lower highs from 1.4270; 24h range floor broken on PPI.
The soft US PPI headline at 13:30 UTC pushed USDCAD through the 1.4249–1.4250 range floor that held through Asia and London, printing a 1.4242 ppi low and extending the lower-high sequence from the 1.4270 london high. In the first hour of NY, price sits below the ema20 at 1.4257 and the ema50, with RSI(14) at 33.4 (not oversold) and ATR expanding to 5.4 pips.
Support: 1.42417, 1.4232
Resistance: 1.42495, 1.42573, 1.42702
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4250 range floor would mark the PPI move as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4242 ppi low exposes yesterday's 1.4232 prior low
Close above the descending lower-highs line and the ema20 near 1.4257 neutralises the downtrend read
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:45 UTC
Intraday range broken lower, momentum turning down · RSI 34 · price 1.42476
24h range 1.4249–1.4271 broken on PPI, lower highs since London.
Sellers capped the range top near 1.4270 twice, and London has printed lower highs since. The soft US PPI headline at 13:30 UTC then pushed USD/CAD through the 1.4249 london low to a 1.4242 ppi low. Price sits below the flat ema20/ema50 cluster near 1.4258, RSI(14) 33.6 is not yet oversold, and ATR(14) has expanded to 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.42417, 1.42268
Resistance: 1.42488, 1.42583, 1.42702
What it said to watch
A return above the 1.4249 london low would turn the PPI move into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4242 ppi low exposes Thursday's ny low at 1.4227
The 61.8% fib of the London-PPI leg at 1.4259 aligns with the ema20 cluster, a zone to watch for rejection or reclaim
A break of the lower highs trendline and a close above the 1.4270 range top would void the break read
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Range, drifting lower since late London · RSI 43 · price 1.42505
Lower highs off 1.4270 London high; PPI bar wicked below range floor.
The softer US PPI headline (6.5% vs 6.6%, core in line) knocked USDCAD through the 1.4249 London low to a 1.4245 PPI low before a bounce to 1.4250 in the forming bar. Price sits below the ema20 at 1.4260 after a run of lower highs from the 1.4270 London high, with RSI(14) at 42.6 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.42488, 1.42448, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42595, 1.42702
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.4249 London low keeps the PPI dip a sweep inside the 1.4249–1.4270 range
Acceptance below the 1.4245 PPI low opens the 1.4224 prior low from yesterday's NY session
M15 close back above the ema20 at 1.4260 breaks the lower-highs sequence; 1.4270 London high is the range top
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
13:16 UTC
Sideways, flat EMAs · RSI 49 · price 1.4259
24h range 1.4249–1.4271, lower highs off London high.
London faded a dip below the Asian low to the 1.4249 london low, then rallied to the 1.4270 london high and was rejected. The pullback reached the 78.6% fib of that leg at the 1.4253 intraday low, and price now sits at 1.4259 just under the ema20, with lower highs capping it as the dollar pauses into US PPI. RSI(14) 48.7 is neutral and ATR(14) is 4.8 pips.
Support: 1.4253, 1.4249, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4260, 1.4270, 1.4300
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (14 min) can break the range either way; core MoM vs 0.3% f/c is the swing factor
M15 close above the 1.4270 london high breaks the 24h range top and opens the 1.4300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4253 intraday low and 1.4249 london low exposes yesterday's 1.4224 prior low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.4260 and a break of the lower highs line would neutralise the post-London fade
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC is the next scheduled event risk in NY hours
London range 1.4249–1.4270, both Asian extremes poked and rejected.
London dipped under the Asian low to a london low at 1.4249, then pushed above the Asian high to a london high at 1.4270. Both moves failed, and a higher low at 1.4254 has price back mid-range near 1.4258, under the ema20 (1.4260) and ema50 (1.4259) with RSI at 45.8. The pair is coiling into US PPI as the USD holds near 19-month highs, and an ATR of 4.7 pips understates the release risk.
Support: 1.42539, 1.42488, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42601, 1.42702, 1.4300
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (28 min) can break this range in either direction. Core above 0.3% MoM firms the Fed-hike bid, a soft core risks a USD unwind
A close back above the ema20 at 1.4260 reopens the london high at 1.4270
Acceptance above 1.4270 brings the 1.4300 round number into view
Losing the higher low at 1.4254, then the london low at 1.4249, breaks the range floor and exposes the prior low at 1.4224
Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could extend any post-PPI move during NY hours
12:46 UTC
Range-bound, pulling back from range top · RSI 46 · price 1.42587
Range of 1.4249–1.4271 since yesterday's NY rebound. The London leg up was rejected at the range top and is now retracing..
USDCAD has held a 1.4249–1.4271 range since yesterday's NY rebound off 1.4224. London's push up from the 1.4249 london low stalled at 1.4270, a rejection just under the range top. Price is now drifting around the 50–61.8% retrace, a touch below the ema20 (1.4260) and ema50 (1.4259), with RSI at 45.8 and ATR at 4.6 pips as the pair goes quiet into US PPI.
Support: 1.42539, 1.42488, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42603, 1.42714
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (44 min) could materially shift this read. Core is forecast at 0.3% MoM / 5% YoY against a USD rally the digest flags as stretched.
An M15 close above the 1.4271 range top breaks the 21-hour range.
Failure to hold the 1.4249 london low opens yesterday's 1.4224 prior low.
Holding the 1.4254 pullback low keeps the London higher-low intact, with the ema20 at 1.4260 the first cap.
12:31 UTC
Intraday range, pulling back from London high · RSI 45 · price 1.42579
London swept Asian low, rallied to session high, now retracing.
London took out the Asian low at 1.42488 (london low), then ran to a 1.42702 session high that stalled just under yesterday's 1.42714 prior high. Price has since slipped back below ema20 (1.42606) and ema50 into the 61.8% fib of that leg near 1.4257, with a 1.42554 pullback low in place. RSI(14) has eased from 64 to 45 as USD pauses ahead of PPI.
Support: 1.42554, 1.42488
Resistance: 1.42606, 1.42702, 1.42714
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, under an hour out, could blow well past the 4.7-pip ATR and reset the session range
An M15 close below the 1.42554 pullback low exposes the 1.42488 london low
Reclaiming ema20 at 1.42606 restores the London leg. A break of the 1.42702 session high and 1.42714 prior high extends the range top
London swept the Asian low, then rejected below the prior high; pullback holding a higher low.
London dipped below the Asian range to the 1.4249 london low, then ran through the Asian high to a 1.4270 session high. It was rejected just under yesterday's 1.4271 prior high as the USD paused ahead of PPI. The pullback low at 1.4255 sits near the 61.8% of the London leg; the last close is below the ema20 (1.4261) and EMA50 (1.4259), with RSI 46 and ATR 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.42554, 1.42488, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.42702, 1.42714
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, early in the London-NY transition, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4270 session high and 1.4271 prior high breaks the range top
Failure to hold the 1.4255 pullback low and the London rising line exposes the 1.4249 london low
A break of the london low leaves little intraday structure until yesterday's 1.4224 prior low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.4261 restores the higher-low sequence from London
12:02 UTC
Range-bound, pulling back from range top · RSI 51 · price 1.42593
1.4249–1.4271 intraday range; London swept Asian low then rallied, rejected under prior high.
Early London swept the Asian low at 1.4252 to 1.4249, then rallied to a London high of 1.4270, stalling just shy of yesterday's NY prior high at 1.4271. Late-London pullback now sits on the ema50 at 1.4259 and the 50% retrace of that leg, with price just under the ema20 and RSI(14) cooled to 50.8 from 64.
Support: 1.42593, 1.42518, 1.42488
Resistance: 1.42613, 1.42702, 1.42714
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, in roughly 90 min, could materially shift this read; ATR(14) is only 4.5 pips ahead of the release
M15 close back above the ema20 at 1.4261 and then 1.4271 prior high breaks the range top
Failure to hold the ema50 exposes the asian low at 1.4252 and the london low at 1.4249; a close below 1.4249 breaks the London low
London false break below Asian low reversed; price pressing 24h range top.
London dipped below the Asian low at 1.4252 to a London low of 1.4249, then reversed in a higher-low rally that has tagged the Asian high and stalled at 1.4270, just under yesterday's NY prior high at 1.4271. Price holds above a rising ema20 (1.4261) with RSI(14) at 59, cooling from 64, and ATR at 4.3 pips as the dollar pauses ahead of US PPI.
Support: 1.42614, 1.42518, 1.42488
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4299
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4271 prior high breaks the 24h range top and puts the 1.4299 YTD high in view
Loss of the ema20 at 1.4261, which sits near the 50% retrace of the London rally, would show the rally losing traction
Break back below the 1.4252 Asian low and 1.4249 London low would negate the false-break read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) in under 2h could materially shift this read
11:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low, stalling at prior high · RSI 56 · price 1.4265
Higher lows since 1.4249, capped below 1.4271 day-range top.
London briefly broke below the Asian low at 1.4252 and reversed from the london low at 1.4249. Price then rallied through the Asian high and met rejection at 1.4270, just under yesterday's 1.4271 prior high, with RSI(14) easing from 64 to 56. Price holds above the ema20 (1.4261) inside the 38.2–50% zone of the london leg fib, with USD underpinned by Fed-hike pricing ahead of US PPI.
Support: 1.42608, 1.42518, 1.42488
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%), about 2h out, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4271 prior high opens the 1.4300 round number and YTD high area
Loss of the ema20 at 1.4261 and the 61.8% london leg fib (1.4257) puts the 1.4252 asian low back in play
A break below the 1.4249 london low negates the higher-low sequence
11:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low, testing prior high · RSI 64 · price 1.4269
Higher-low chain off the London sweep of the Asian low, now through the Asian high.
London swept the Asian low to 1.4249 and reversed. A higher-low chain has since carried price through the Asian high near 1.4265 and into yesterday's post-claims prior high at 1.4271, with EMA20 crossing back above EMA50 and RSI(14) climbing to 64. USD is holding firm into the 13:30 UTC PPI release, which lands in the first hour of NY.
Support: 1.42652, 1.42605, 1.42488
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4271 prior high opens the path to the 1.4300 round number
Slip back below the 1.4265 Asian high turns the push into a false break
Break of the rising trendline and the ema20 at 1.4260 stalls the higher-low chain
Loss of the 1.4249 London low reverts the session to range
US Oct PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Intraday higher lows, pressing range top · RSI 62 · price 1.42672
London false break of Asian low, HL chain back to Asian high.
Early London dipped through the Asian low to 1.4249 in a false break, then printed higher lows back to the Asian high at 1.4268, with price above a rising ema20 and RSI(14) at 62. Yesterday's prior high at 1.4271 caps the 24h range as USD consolidates ahead of US PPI.
Support: 1.42596, 1.42518, 1.42488
Resistance: 1.42684, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4271 prior high breaks the 24h range top; stalling there marks a rejection at the Asian high
Loss of the rising support and ema20 near 1.4260 (50% of the London leg) weakens the higher-low chain
Break below the Asian low 1.4252 and London low 1.4249 negates the false-break read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read; ATR at 4.4 pips likely to expand on the release
10:46 UTC
Range-bound, intraday bid off London low · RSI 60 · price 1.42665
Asian low swept in early London, higher lows since; pressing Asian high.
Early London swept the Asian low to a 1.4249 London low and reversed. Price has since built rising support with higher lows, reclaimed the ema20 at 1.4259 and is now testing the Asian high at 1.4268, just under yesterday's 1.4271 prior high. Both caps sit inside the range that has held since the post-claims swing off the 1.4224 prior low. RSI(14) at 60.2 is firm but not stretched, and ATR(14) of 4.4 pips points to a quiet tape ahead of US PPI.
Support: 1.42589, 1.42488, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4271 prior high breaks the range top and opens the 1.4300 round number
Rejection at the 1.4268 Asian high and a close back below the ema20 at 1.4259 returns price to mid-range
Loss of the 1.4249 London low breaks the rising support and exposes the 1.4224 prior low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~2.7h) could materially shift this read; a hot core print aligns with the digest's 1.43 retest scenario
10:31 UTC
Sideways range, intraday recovery from London low · RSI 56 · price 1.42622
Range 1.4249–1.4271 since NY afternoon; higher lows off the London low.
USDCAD has ranged between 1.4249 and 1.4271 since the NY afternoon. London's dip below the 1.4252 Asian low was a false break, reversed at the 1.4249 london low near the 50% fib of yesterday's post-claims rally. Price is back above both EMAs at 1.4262 and pressing the 1.4265 london high / 1.4268 asian high zone, with RSI(14) at 56 and ATR at 4.4 pips as the USD holds steady ahead of US PPI.
Support: 1.42583, 1.42488, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42652, 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4268 asian high breaks the range top and exposes the 1.4271 prior high
Rejection at the 1.4265 london high keeps the range intact
Loss of the ema20 at 1.4258 and the London higher-low trendline turns focus back to the 1.4249 london low
Close below 1.4249 negates the false break and opens the 1.4224 prior low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman follows at 15:50 UTC
10:16 UTC
Sideways, flat EMAs · RSI 55 · price 1.42611
Asian range 1.4252–1.4268 intact after London false break lower.
USDCAD is holding inside the Asian range after the London session dipped through the asian low to a london low at 1.4249, near the 50% of yesterday's post-claims rally from 1.4224 to the ny high at 1.4271, and reclaimed it. Price sits just above the flat ema cluster at 1.4258 with RSI(14) neutral at 54.5 and ATR(14) at 4.5 pips, as the dollar holds firm ahead of US PPI.
Support: 1.42578, 1.42518, 1.42488
Resistance: 1.42626, 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could break the 1.4252–1.4268 Asian range either way
M15 close above the london high at 1.4263 puts the asian high at 1.4268 and ny high at 1.4271 back in play
Loss of the ema cluster at 1.4258 and a close below the asian low at 1.4252 reopens the london low at 1.4249
A break of the london low would extend the post-claims rally retracement beyond 50%
10:02 UTC
Sideways, flat EMAs · RSI 51 · price 1.4259
Range 1.4249–1.4268 since late NY; London low reclaimed.
Ranging 1.4249–1.4268 since late NY, after the rally off the claims low faded from the 1.4271 prior high. London briefly broke under the Asian range to 1.4249, near the 50% retrace of that rally, then reclaimed it. Price now sits back above the flat ema cluster, with ATR(14) up to 4.6 pips from 3.7 as USD holds firm into US PPI.
Support: 1.42575, 1.42488, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42626, 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4263 session high puts the 1.4268 asian high and 1.4271 prior high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4249 london low and 50% fib opens a deeper retrace toward the 1.4224 claims low
Loss of the ema cluster near 1.4257 returns price to the lower half of the range
09:46 UTC
Sideways, mild upturn from London low · RSI 56 · price 1.42621
Range 1.4249–1.4271 held since yesterday's post-claims spike; Asian-low false break reclaimed.
London dipped through the 1.4252 Asian low to a 1.4249 London low, near the 50% retrace of yesterday's post-claims rally fib, then reclaimed it. Price is back above the flat ema20/ema50 pair near 1.4257 at 1.4262, with RSI(14) at 55.8 and ATR 4.6 pips, as USD pauses ahead of PPI. The 1.4249–1.4271 range is intact, with the 1.4268 Asian high the next cap.
Support: 1.42575, 1.42488, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4268 asian high and 1.4271 prior high breaks the range to the topside
Loss of the 1.4249 london low turns the false break into a range break, exposing the 1.4224 claims low
Slipping back below the ema20 at 1.4257 puts price back in the middle of the range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%, core MoM f/c 0.3%) could materially shift this read
Range inside Asian range after London false break.
USDCAD is ranging inside the 1.4252–1.4268 Asian range. London dipped to 1.4249, below the asian low, and then reclaimed it, a false break that held near the 50% of yesterday's NY rally off the post-claims low. Price sits on flat ema20/ema50 (1.4257) with RSI(14) neutral at 49.8 as the dollar pauses ahead of US PPI.
Support: 1.42571, 1.42518, 1.42488
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4249 london low breaks the range floor and the NY rally 50% retracement
M15 close above the 1.4268 asian high opens a retest of the 1.4271 NY high
Holding the ema20 near 1.4257 keeps price in the upper half of the range
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; ATR at 4.6 pips is compressed ahead of it
09:16 UTC
Sideways, flat EMAs · RSI 51 · price 1.42572
Range 1.4249–1.4268 after post-claims rally; London false break of Asian low.
Ranging between the 1.4249 London low and the 1.4268 Asian high since Thursday's rally off the 1.4224 claims low to the 1.4271 prior high, with soft crude and firm USD keeping the pair pinned. London dipped below the 1.4252 Asian low and reclaimed it near the 50% fib of that rally. Price sits just above flat EMA20/EMA50 near 1.4257, with RSI 50.9 and ATR expanding to 4.7 pips.
Support: 1.42518, 1.42488, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4249 London low negates the false break and exposes the 1.4224 claims low
M15 close above the 1.4268 Asian high puts the 1.4271 prior high in play
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; Bowman follows at 15:50 UTC
09:02 UTC
Drifting lower, lower highs since Asia open · RSI 41 · price 1.42511
Testing base of 1.4252–1.4268 Asian range, below both EMAs.
London has pressed USDCAD to the floor of the Asian range, printing a 1.4249 london low and stalling around 1.4251–1.4254. Lower highs have formed since the 1.4268 asia high, price sits under the ema20 at 1.4257, RSI(14) is at 40.9 and ATR(14) has widened to 4.5 pips from 3.7. Thursday's claims-day dip to the 1.4224 prior low was fully recovered in NY, so the 24h picture is still a range ahead of today's US PPI.
Support: 1.42488, 1.42406, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.4257, 1.42622, 1.42681
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4249 london low exposes the 1.4241 swing low, then the 1.4224 prior low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.4257 and the 1.4262 london high breaks the lower-high sequence; 1.4268 asia high sits above
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Sideways, soft below both EMAs · RSI 44 · price 1.42539
Asian range 1.4252–1.4268; London printed lower highs and swept the range low.
London dipped below the Asian range low to a london low at 1.4249, then closed back near 1.4254, which is the 38.2% fib of yesterday's claims-low rally. Price sits below the ema20/ema50 (~1.4257) under a London lower-high trendline, with RSI(14) at 43.6 and ATR(14) expanding to 4.6 pips as the market waits for US PPI.
Support: 1.42488, 1.42406, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42575, 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4249 london low confirms a range break and opens the 1.4241 swing low
Close back above the 1.4258 ema20 and the lower-high trendline restores the range read toward the 1.4268 asian high
Break of the 1.4271 prior high puts the 1.4224 claims low to 1.4271 swing fully back in play upward
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; Bowman follows at 15:50 UTC
08:31 UTC
Sideways, mild downside drift in London · RSI 43 · price 1.42529
Asian range 1.4252–1.4268; London probing the range low.
Early London dipped marginally under the Asian range low to a 1.4251 London low, leaving price below the flat EMAs near 1.4258 with RSI(14) at 43 and ATR edging up to 4.4 pips. Price is holding the 38.2% retrace of yesterday's post-claims rally (1.4224–1.4271), with the move contained ahead of US PPI.
Support: 1.42508, 1.42478, 1.42406
Resistance: 1.42579, 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4251 London low and the fib 50% at 1.4248 opens the 1.4241 swing low
Recovery above ema20 at 1.4258 puts price back inside the Asian range, with the Asian high 1.4268 and NY high 1.4271 capping above
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Sideways, soft at range base · RSI 40 · price 1.42518
1.4250–1.4271 range since NY afternoon, lower highs.
USDCAD has held a 1.4250–1.4271 range since the jobless-claims spike to the 1.4224 claims low reversed into a NY high at 1.4271. Lower highs at 1.4268 and the 1.4265 London high are capping each push. Early London is pressing the Asian low near 1.4252 just above the 1.4250 rollover low, with price below the 1.4258 ema cluster, RSI(14) at 40 and ATR(14) edging up to 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.42495, 1.42406, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.4258, 1.42652, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 rollover low breaks the range base and exposes the 50% fib near 1.4248 and the 1.4241 swing low
Reclaim of the 1.4258 ema cluster returns price to mid-range
Close above the 1.4265 london high breaks the lower-high trendline; the 1.4271 ny high caps above
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
Tight 1.4252–1.4268 range since Asia, floor tested twice.
The jobless-claims dip to the 1.4224 ny low reversed into a rally to the 1.4271 ny high. Since then the pair has held a 1.4252–1.4268 Asian range, with the range low defended twice near the 38.2% fib. At London open price is pinned between a flat ema20 (1.4259) and ema50 (1.4258), and RSI 48.8 with ATR at 4.3 pips points to compressed conditions.
Support: 1.42579, 1.42518, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.4259, 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4252 range low exposes the 50% fib near 1.4248 and the ny low further out
M15 close above the 1.4268 asian high and 1.4271 ny high ends the range read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read and expand ATR from 4.3 pips
07:46 UTC
Sideways, EMAs flat and tightly stacked · RSI 51 · price 1.4259
Range inside the Asian range, London open tested the Asian low and was rejected.
Ranging between the 1.4252 Asian low and the 1.4268 Asian high. The London open dip to 1.4252 was rejected and price is back just above the ema50 at 1.4258, with RSI(14) 51 and ATR 4.3 pips. Yesterday's claims leg, from the 1.4224 prior low to the 1.4271 prior high, still frames the session.
Support: 1.42579, 1.42518, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42652, 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
Swing high at 1.4265 caps the London recovery so far; an M15 close above the 1.4268 asian high exposes the 1.4271 prior high and ends the range read
M15 close below the 1.4252 asian low breaks the range; the claims leg 61.8% retrace near 1.4242 and the 1.4224 prior low are the next references
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Flat, range-bound after the post-claims rally · RSI 48 · price 1.42593
Tight Asian range 1.4252–1.4268 holding into early London, EMAs flat.
USDCAD is boxed inside the 1.4252–1.4268 Asian range. The London-open dip to the asian low at 1.4252 was rejected, and the 07:15 close at 1.42578 sat just under both flat EMAs with RSI(14) neutral at 48.3. ATR(14) at 4.3 pips shows compression after Thursday's rebound from the 1.4224 claims low to the 1.4271 prior high, with price holding near the 38.2% fib of that leg as a firm USD tone waits on PPI.
Support: 1.4252, 1.42495, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42652, 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~6h) is the main input likely to break the range compression
M15 close below the asian low at 1.4252 and the late-NY low at 1.42495 breaks the range floor and the 38.2% fib, opening the 50% near 1.4248
Close above the london high at 1.4265 and the asian high at 1.4268 puts the 1.4271 prior high in play
Failure to hold above 1.4224 claims low would erase Thursday's post-claims rally
07:16 UTC
Sideways after Thursday's NY rebound, highs drifting lower · RSI 49 · price 1.42591
Asian range 1.4252–1.4268 intact; London open swept the range low and recovered.
Early London dropped from the 1.4265 session high into the 1.4252 Asian low, which also held at 01:15 UTC, and snapped back. The close sits just under the EMA20 at 1.4259 and above the EMA50 at 1.4258, with RSI(14) neutral at 48.6. ATR is ticking up from 3.6 to 4.4 pips, while lower highs from the 1.4271 prior high cap the range top; the dip held near the 38.2% fib of Thursday's NY rally.
Support: 1.4252, 1.4241, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4268, 1.4271
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4252 Asian low opens the 1.4241 prior low, then the 1.4224 window low
Break of the lower highs trendline and the 1.4268 Asian high puts the 1.4271 prior high in play
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman follows at 15:50 UTC
The NY rally from the post-claims low at 1.4224 to the 1.4271 NY high has given way to an Asian range of 1.4252–1.4268, with firm Fed hike pricing keeping USD supported. The pre-London rejection at 1.4265 has pushed price back below a flat ema20 and ema50 and onto the asian low, around the 38.2% retracement of the NY rally, and the rising Asia trendline is under pressure.
Support: 1.4252, 1.4250, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4258, 1.4268, 1.4271
What it said to watch
A sustained break below the asian low and the 1.4250 round number opens the 50% retracement near 1.4248 and then the claims low at 1.4224
Recovery above the ema50 at 1.4258 returns price to mid-range, with the asian high at 1.4268 and the 1.4271 NY high as the cap
ATR at 4.2 pips shows a compressed range ahead of London open
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Sideways, Asia grinding higher · RSI 54 · price 1.4262
Asian range 1.4252–1.4268 holding above the post-claims rally base; higher lows since 04:00 UTC.
The claims rally from 1.4224 to the 1.4271 prior high has held above its 38.2% retracement. Asia is in a 1.4252–1.4268 range, with higher lows since 04:00 UTC pressing price toward the Asian high into London open. Price is above the EMA20 at 1.4260 and the EMA50, RSI(14) is neutral at 54.4 and ATR(14) is compressed at 4 pips.
Support: 1.42596, 1.42518, 1.42495
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4268 asian high and the 1.4271 prior high opens the path to the 1.4300 round number
A break of the Asia higher lows line and the ema20 near 1.4260 points back to the 1.4252 asian low
Failure to hold the 1.4250 swing low exposes the 50% retracement of the claims rally near 1.4248
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (about 6.7h away) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the Asian low, pressing toward the Asian high.
Late Asia session is grinding higher on a rising lows chain off the 1.4252 Asian low. Price at 1.4264 sits just under the 1.4268 Asian high, above ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 59. The pullback from yesterday's 1.4271 NY high, set after the post-claims rally, held near the 38.2% of the NY rally fib, and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.7 pips into London open.
Support: 1.42594, 1.42567, 1.42518
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4268 Asian high exposes the 1.4271 NY high
Break of the rising lows trendline and ema20 near 1.4259 reopens the 1.4252 Asian low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Sideways, mild upward drift in Asia · RSI 54 · price 1.42617
Rising lows inside the Asian range, pre-London.
Ahead of the London open, USDCAD sits in the upper half of a 1.4252–1.4268 Asian range. Lows are rising off the 1.4252 Asian low, and the Asian dip held near the 38.2% retrace of Thursday's post-claims rally from 1.4224 to the 1.4271 prior high. Price is above the ema20 at 1.4259 and the EMA50, RSI(14) is a neutral 54 and ATR has compressed to 3.7 pips, with a firm USD and soft crude underpinning the pair ahead of US PPI.
Support: 1.4259, 1.42537, 1.42518
Resistance: 1.42641, 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4264 swing high and the 1.4268 Asian high opens the 1.4271 prior high
Break of the asia rising lows line and the 1.4254 swing low exposes the 1.4252 Asian low
Losing the ema20 at 1.4259 shifts the read back to mid-range chop
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
Late Asia, higher lows inside the 1.4252–1.4268 Asian range.
Late Asia session: price has printed higher lows off the 1.4252 asian low and a 1.4254 higher low. It now holds 1.4260, just above the ema20 at 1.4259 and EMA50, and is capped by the 1.4264 session high. ATR(14) has compressed to 3.6 pips and RSI is neutral at 52.9, with the whole Asian range sitting inside yesterday's NY swing from the 1.4224 jobless-claims low to the 1.4271 prior high.
Support: 1.42588, 1.42537, 1.42518
Resistance: 1.42641, 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4268 asian high breaks the range and brings the 1.4271 prior high into view
Loss of the 1.4254 higher low and the 1.4252 asian low breaks the higher-low trendline and reopens the range floor
London open in roughly 2h is the first test of the Asian range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Sideways, mild upward drift through Asia · RSI 57 · price 1.4262
Higher lows inside the 1.4252–1.4268 Asian range, below the NY high.
Late Asia session has USDCAD grinding off the 1.4252 Asian low on higher lows. It sits at 1.4262, above the ema20 (1.4259) and ema50, with RSI(14) at 56.7. The cap is the Asian high at 1.4268 and the NY high at 1.4271, set in the rebound from the post-claims flush to the 1.4224 NY low, and ATR has compressed to 3.7 pips ahead of US PPI.
Support: 1.42587, 1.42518, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4271 ny high breaks the range top, with the 1.4300 round number next
Loss of the 1.4252 asian low and the rising trendline negates the Asia higher-low sequence
Slip back below the ema20 at 1.4259 returns price to mid-range chop
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~7.7h) could materially shift this read; the 1.4224 ny low is the reference for a downside spike
05:31 UTC
Sideways, compressing in Asia · RSI 54 · price 1.42606
Range inside 1.4252–1.4268 Asian range, mild higher lows.
NY's claims-time drop to 1.4224 reversed to a 1.4271 NY high, and every pullback since has held near the fib 38.2% of that rally, keeping a firm-USD tone intact. Asia is coiling between the 1.4252 Asian low and the 1.4268 Asian high with rising lows. Price is just above flat EMA20/EMA50, and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.6 pips ahead of US PPI.
Support: 1.42571, 1.42537, 1.42518
Resistance: 1.42622, 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4262 swing high puts the 1.4268 asian high and the 1.4271 ny high back in play
Loss of the ema50 at 1.4257 and the 1.4254 swing low breaks the rising lows trendline
Close below the 1.4252 asian low and the fib 38.2% (~1.4253) shifts the read toward a deeper retrace
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could break the compressed Asian range either way
05:16 UTC
Sideways, compressing just above both EMAs · RSI 55 · price 1.42606
Tight Asian range inside the post-claims rally; higher lows since 02:15 UTC.
Late Asia session, USDCAD is boxed inside a 1.4252–1.4268 Asian range after Williams' remarks briefly lifted it to the 1.42681 Asia high. Price sits above both flat EMAs with RSI(14) at 55 and ATR(14) compressing to 3.7 pips. The NY rally off the jobless-claims low at 1.42241 to the 1.42714 NY high has retraced only to around the 38.2% fib, and the Asia low at 1.42518 has held.
Support: 1.42537, 1.42518
Resistance: 1.42622, 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.42622 swing high puts the 1.42681 Asia high and 1.42714 NY high back in focus
Loss of the 1.42537 swing low and the 1.42518 Asia low breaks the higher-low sequence and opens the 50% fib near 1.4248
London open is the first test of the Asian range after the ATR compression
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC, could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Flat, compressing after NY rally · RSI 49 · price 1.42572
Tight range inside Asian range, lower highs from 1.4268.
Late Asia session is coiling between the 1.4254 swing low and 1.4262 swing high, inside the 1.4250–1.4268 Asian range. ATR has compressed to 3.7 pips and price sits between the flat EMAs, just below the EMA20 and above the EMA50. Yesterday's NY rally ran from the 1.4224 NY low, set around the jobless claims release, to the 1.4271 NY high and is still holding above the 38.2% level of the NY rally fib, while lower highs off the Asian high cap the upside ahead of US PPI.
Support: 1.42537, 1.42495, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42622, 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the main catalyst to break this compression, with Bowman following at 15:50 UTC
An M15 close above the 1.4268 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.4271 NY high in play
Failure to hold the 1.4250 asian low opens the 50% NY rally fib near 1.4248 and leaves the 1.4224 NY low exposed
ATR expanding from 3.7 pips into London open would mark the end of the range read
Asian range 1.4252–1.4268 inside the NY rally, small higher lows.
Late Asia session, USDCAD is rotating mid-range at 1.4259 between the asian high at 1.4268 and the asian low at 1.4252. That low held near the 38.2% retrace of the NY rally, which ran from the post-claims ny low at 1.4224 to the ny high at 1.4271. Price is holding just above a flat ema20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral at 52 and ATR(14) compressing to 3.8 pips ahead of US PPI, while the firm-USD tone keeps dips shallow.
Support: 1.42579, 1.42518, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42622, 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4262 swing high and then the 1.4268 asian high puts the 1.4271 ny high back in play
A loss of the ema20 at 1.4258 and the rising support line exposes the 1.4252 asian low
A break of the asian low below the NY rally fib 38.2% opens a deeper pullback toward the 1.4224 ny low
London open in about 2h is likely to set the range break direction
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
Late-Asia range 1.42518–1.42681, higher low at 1.42537.
Late Asia is ranging between the 1.42518 Asian low and the 1.42681 Asian high, after the pop around Williams' remarks faded. Price is back above a flat ema20 and ema50, with a higher low at 1.42537 and RSI(14) at 56.9. ATR(14) has compressed to 3.8 pips, and yesterday's NY high at 1.42714 caps the post-claims recovery from 1.42241.
Support: 1.42578, 1.42537, 1.42518
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.42681 asian high exposes the 1.42714 NY high
Failure to hold the 1.42537 higher low and 1.42518 asian low breaks the range lower
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
Close back below the ema20 at 1.42578 flattens the higher-low sequence
04:16 UTC
Sideways, EMAs flat · RSI 55 · price 1.42605
Late-Asia range 1.4251–1.4268 inside NY rebound.
Late Asia session is coiling between the 1.4251 asian low and the 1.4268 asian high, which was set after Williams' 'still has work to do' remarks. Price sits back above the flat ema20 (1.42574) and ema50, with RSI(14) a neutral 54.7 and ATR compressed to 3.9 pips. Thursday's rebound from the 1.4224 claims low is holding above its 38.2% retracement, while supply has capped price below the 1.4271 ny high.
Support: 1.42574, 1.42506, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4268 asian high puts the 1.4271 ny high back in play
Loss of the 1.4251 asian low exposes the 50% retracement of the NY rally near 1.4248
Failure to hold the ema20 at 1.42574 returns price to the middle of the Asian range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could break the session range; Bowman follows at 15:50 UTC
Asian lower highs under the NY high, tight band above the Asian low.
The NY rally off the 1.4224 claims low topped at the 1.4271 NY high. Asia then put in a lower high at the 1.4268 asian high after Williams' hawkish remarks, and price has given back about a third of that rally on the fib. Price is now compressed in a 1.4252–1.4260 band just above the 1.4252 asian low. It is trading below the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 46.3 and ATR(14) easing to 3.7 pips.
Support: 1.42518, 1.42495, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42571, 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4252 asian low and the 1.4250 rollover low opens a deeper retracement of the claims-low rally fib toward the 1.4224 claims low.
A close back above the ema20 at 1.4257 and the Asian lower highs trendline puts the 1.4268 asian high and 1.4271 ny high back in play.
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is likely to break the current compression.
Asia range 1.4252–1.4268 inside the NY spike range, contracting.
The claims-print dip to 1.4224 reversed into a 1.4271 NY high. Williams' hawkish remarks then lifted the pair to the 1.4268 Asian high, and that move has since faded into a tight Asia range above the 1.4252 Asian low. Price sits just above a flat ema20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) at 52 and ATR(14) compressing to 3.6 pips: no setup in play.
Support: 1.42573, 1.42518, 1.4250
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4268 Asian high exposes the 1.4271 NY high
Loss of the 1.4252 Asian low reopens the 1.4250 round number and a deeper retracement of the claims rally
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.4252–1.4268 inside the 1.4224–1.4271 day range.
Williams' 'still has work to do' remarks lifted the pair to the 1.4268 Asia high, but the move faded back into a 1.4252–1.4268 Asian range. Price sits just above a flat ema20/ema50 with RSI(14) at 51.7 and ATR compressing to 3.8 pips. The range is nested inside yesterday's 1.4224 claims low to 1.4271 NY high, with the Asia low aligned with the 38.2% fib of that leg.
Support: 1.42563, 1.4252, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4268, 1.4271
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4271 NY high breaks the range and clears the 1.4265 four-week high
Failure to hold the 1.4252 Asia low and 38.2% fib exposes the 1.4224 claims low
Loss of ema50 at 1.4256 shifts price back below both flat EMAs
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Flat, ranging at the EMAs · RSI 50 · price 1.42571
Asian range 1.4250–1.4268, lower highs off the Asian high.
The NY claims-hour dip to 1.4224 reversed into a NY rally to the 1.4271 NY high. Since then price has held a 1.4250–1.4270 range. In Asia, a spike to the 1.4268 Asian high after Williams' hawkish remarks was faded to a 1.4252 swing low, leaving a lower high at 1.4260. Late in the Asia session, price is pinned at EMA20/EMA50 with RSI 50 and ATR compressing to 3.9 pips, so there is no setup in play.
Support: 1.42518, 1.42495
Resistance: 1.42596, 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.4252 swing low and the 1.4250 Asian low would mark a lower-low and a deeper retrace of the NY rally
M15 close above the 1.4260 lower high, then the 1.4268 Asian high, would reopen the 1.4271 NY high
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman and Daly speak later in NY hours
Asian range 1.4250–1.4268, lower high under NY high.
Williams' 'still has work to do' remarks lifted USDCAD to the 1.4268 asian high, which capped below the 1.4271 ny high set on the rebound from the 1.4224 ny low after US claims. The Asia session is now holding inside 1.4250–1.4268, with price pinned between the ema20 and ema50, RSI(14) at 49.5 and ATR(14) contracting to 4 pips.
Support: 1.42518, 1.42495, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42572, 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close under the 1.4252 swing low and the 1.4250 asian low breaks the Asian range lower
Close above the 1.4268 asian high and the 1.4271 ny high breaks the lower-highs line
ema20 at 1.4257 capping closes; a reclaim shifts the range to its upper half
Failure of the ny rally fib 50% near 1.4248 exposes the 1.4224 ny low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.4252–1.4268 inside NY's 1.4224–1.4271 span.
Williams' hawkish remarks lifted USD/CAD to the asian high at 1.4268 early in the Asia session. That level saw rejection, and price slipped back to the asian low at 1.4252 before recovering above a flat ema20 (1.4257), with RSI(14) neutral at 53 and ATR(14) compressed at 4.1 pips. The claims rally off the 1.4224 claims low topped at the 1.4271 NY high, and price now sits about 26% back into that move.
Support: 1.42572, 1.42518, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4268 asian high and 1.4271 ny high breaks the range to the upside
Failure to hold the 1.4252 asian low opens a deeper retracement of the claims rally toward 1.4224
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman (15:50) and Daly (17:00), could materially shift this read
ATR(14) at 4.1 pips signals a tight range likely to persist until London open
The post-claims dip to the 1.4224 claims low reversed into a claims rally that peaked at the 1.4271 NY high. Williams' hawkish remarks then lifted price to a 1.4268 Asian high, which was rejected back to the 1.4251 Asian low, leaving lower highs inside the 1.4251–1.4271 range. Price sits just above a flat EMA20/EMA50, with RSI(14) at 50.6 and ATR 4.1 pips: mid-range, no setup in play.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4268, 1.4271, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4251 asian low breaks the range and opens the 1.4224 claims low
Close above the 1.4271 ny high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.4300 round number in view
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Bowman at 15:50 and Daly at 17:00 UTC follow
02:16 UTC
Sideways after NY spike, momentum neutral · RSI 48 · price 1.42561
1.4250–1.4271 range, lower high in Asia.
The jobless-claims flush to 1.4224 reversed into a 1.4271 NY high, and price has since ranged within the upper half of that move. Early Asia pushed to 1.4268 on Williams' hawkish remarks but met rejection at that lower high. Price now sits just below the ema20 at 1.4257, with RSI(14) at 48 and ATR at 4.3 pips. No setup is in play.
Support: 1.42518, 1.42495, 1.42406
Resistance: 1.4257, 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4268 asian high and 1.4271 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.4252 swing low and the 1.4250 asian low exposes the 50% fib of the claims spike near 1.4248, then the 1.4241 london low
Reclaiming the ema20 at 1.4257 returns price to mid-range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman at 15:50 UTC, could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Sideways, momentum fading in Asia · RSI 45 · price 1.42532
1.4250–1.4270 range since NY afternoon, lower high in Asia.
Asia has faded the pop to the 1.4268 asian high that followed Williams' hawkish remarks, and price is back at the 1.4251 asian low. That level coincides with the 38.2% fib of yesterday's claims rally, which ran from the 1.4224 claims low to the 1.4271 ny high. Price sits below the ema20 (1.4257) and ema50 (1.4256) with RSI 45 and ATR compressed at 4.3 pips; the session is mid-Asia, and the 1.4250–1.4270 range has been intact since the NY afternoon.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4241, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.42571, 1.4268, 1.4271
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4251 asian low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.4241 london low
Reclaiming the ema20 at 1.4257 and the Asian lower-highs line puts the 1.4268 asian high and 1.4271 ny high back in focus
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly later Friday, could materially shift this read
1.4250–1.4271 range since NY; lower highs off Asian high.
The claims swing from the 1.4224 claims low to 1.4271 has settled into a 1.4250–1.4271 range. Williams' hawkish remarks lifted the pair to a 1.4268 Asian high early in the Asia session, but that high was rejected and a chain of lower highs has followed. Price now sits below the ema20 (1.4257) and ema50 (1.4256) with RSI at 42, pressing the 1.4250 Asian low, and ATR is steady at 4.4 pips.
Support: 1.42495, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42561, 1.42574, 1.42681
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 asian low breaks the range floor and exposes the 38.2–50% zone of the claims swing toward 1.4247
Reclaiming the ema50/ema20 at 1.4256–1.4257 and clearing the lower highs trendline turns focus back to the 1.4268 asian high
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) and Bowman at 15:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-NY range 1.4250–1.4271, testing range floor in Asia.
The pair has held a 1.4250–1.4271 range since the NY rebound off the 1.4224 day low after the claims print. Williams' hawkish remarks drove an Asia leg up to the 1.4268 Asia high, which was rejected. Price has faded back to the 1.4250 swing low, below the ema50 (1.4256) and ema20 (1.4258), with RSI(14) at 41.1 and ATR(14) at a quiet 4.4 pips.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4244, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4256, 1.4268, 1.4271
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 swing low exposes the london low at 1.4244, then the 1.4224 day low
Reclaim of the ema50/ema20 at 1.4256–1.4258 puts price back mid-range toward the asia high at 1.4268
Break of the 1.4271 day high would end the range read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Range, fading off the Asia high · RSI 45 · price 1.42543
Lower high at 1.4268 under the 1.4271 NY high; price in the lower half of the Asia range.
The post-Williams pop to the 1.4268 Asia high was rejected, and price has slipped under both EMA20 (1.4259) and EMA50 (1.4256), retracing most of the Asia rally. RSI(14) at 45 is neutral and ATR(14) is compressed at 4.4 pips. The pair sits mid-range inside Thursday's 1.4224 NY low to 1.4271 NY high span.
Support: 1.42506, 1.42406, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42564, 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4251 Asia low opens the 1.4241 London low
Reclaim of ema50 at 1.4256 and EMA20 at 1.4259 puts the 1.4268 Asia high back in play
A break above the 1.4271 NY high ends the range read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Sideways after NY rally, momentum neutral · RSI 53 · price 1.42583
Range 1.4251–1.4271 since NY session; early Asia fading its spike high.
The claims-time flush to the NY low at 1.4224 reversed into a 47-pip rally to the NY high at 1.4271. Since then the pair has held a 1.4251–1.4271 range, staying above the 38.2% retracement of that rally. Williams' hawkish remarks lifted price to an Asia high at 1.4268, but it was rejected. Price is now sliding back toward the ema50 at 1.4257, with RSI(14) neutral at 52.7 and ATR(14) compressed at 4.3 pips.
Support: 1.42565, 1.42506, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4271 NY high breaks the range top
Failure to hold the 1.4251 swing low exposes the 50% retracement near 1.4248 and the NY low at 1.4224
Loss of the ema50 at 1.4257 shifts the Asian session into a range-low test
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Range 1.4251–1.4271 after NY reversal; lower high in early Asia.
The claims-hour drop to the 1.4224 day low reversed fully into the 1.4271 NY high, and price has ranged between the 1.4251 swing low and that high since. Williams' hawkish remarks lifted the pair late NY. Early Asia stalled at 1.4268, a lower high, and price sits just above the ema20 at 1.4259 with ATR(14) at 4.4 pips.
Support: 1.42589, 1.42506, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42714
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4271 ny high breaks the range top and the lower highs line
Rejection at the 1.4268 lower high keeps the range intact
Failure to hold the 1.4251 swing low exposes the 50% fib of the NY rally near 1.4248, then the 1.4224 day low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC and Bowman/Daly Fedspeak could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Sideways after NY reversal, mild upside drift · RSI 56 · price 1.42635
Consolidation 1.4251–1.4271 above the NY low sweep.
The jobless claims release swept below the London low to the NY low at 1.42241, then reversed to the NY high at 1.42714, with the pullback holding the swing low near 1.4251, around the 38.2% of that rally. Early Asia tagged 1.42681 and slipped back. Price sits just above the ema20 at 1.42587, RSI(14) 55.9 is mid-range and ATR(14) has compressed to 4.4 pips.
Support: 1.42587, 1.42506, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.42714 NY high breaks the consolidation top and brings the 1.4300 round number into view
Rejection at the 1.42681 asia high keeps price inside the range
Loss of the ema20, then a break of the 1.42506 swing low, exposes the 50–61.8% fib zone 1.4248–1.4242
US PPI at 13:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
Higher low at 1.4251 above the 1.4224 NY low; testing the top of the post-NY consolidation.
USD/CAD reversed the claims-hour drop to the 1.4224 NY low into a claims rally that topped at the 1.4271 NY high, then held a 1.4251–1.4261 range through NY afternoon. Early Asia session swept the 1.4251 range floor at rollover and has since lifted above the ema20 to the 1.4268 asia high, with RSI(14) at 64 and ATR(14) a quiet 4.3 pips.
Support: 1.42584, 1.42506, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4271 ny high breaks the consolidation top and opens the 1.4300 round number
Loss of the ema20 near 1.4258 returns price toward the 1.4251 range floor
Close below the range floor shifts focus back to the 1.4224 ny low
Failure at the asia high and ny high leaves a double rejection near 1.4270
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-claims rally range 1.4251–1.4271, pressing top.
USD/CAD reversed from the claims low at 1.4224 to a NY high of 1.4271 on firm USD, then held a range above 1.4252. A late-session dip to 1.4251 was a false break of the range floor, reclaimed quickly. Early Asia is now back near the range top, above the ema20 at 1.4258, with RSI(14) at 60.5 and ATR(14) compressed to 4.3 pips.
Support: 1.42576, 1.42506, 1.42241
Resistance: 1.42714, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4271 ny high breaks the range and opens the 1.4300 round number
Close back below the ema20 at 1.4258 returns price to the range middle; failure of the 1.4251 late low exposes the claims-rally fib 61.8% near 1.4242
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.3%) could materially shift this read; the claims low at 1.4224 anchors the move