Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.4299 spike high; price below EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Wednesday's NY-session spike to 1.4299 was rejected within hours, and the pair has printed lower highs since. The slide ran through Thursday and Friday as dovish Fed talk and lower US yields outweighed hot US PPI and retail sales, while firmer oil and a modestly hawkish Macklem supported CAD. Friday's NY session set a week low at 1.4134, and the bounce stalled at the 1.4164 ny high, just under the 1.4170 prior low. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.4134, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4164, 1.4170, 1.4222
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.4170 prior low and the lower-highs trendline would break the sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold the 1.4134 week low exposes the 1.4100 round number, with 1.40 the next reference
Recovery through the 1.4222 lower high reclaims the 50% fib of the week's drop and neutralises the downtrend read
Canada Sep CPI (Mon 12:30 GMT): a core trim/median print away from ~1.9% could materially shift this read
Weekend IMF meetings bring gap risk into the Monday open
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.4299 week high.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's NY-session rejection at the 1.4299 week high, as falling Treasury yields and firmer BoC pricing narrowed spreads. Thursday's US data bars whipsawed between 1.4222 and 1.4169 but closed flat as hot prints failed to lift the dollar, and Friday's London and early-NY selling set a 1.4134 week low near the ~1.4140 fair value cited in the CAD digest. The bounce from that low has stalled under the EMA(20) at 1.4164 and the 1.4173 lower high, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.4134, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4164, 1.4173, 1.4198
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4173 lower high and the descending lower-high trendline breaks the sequence; the 38.2% fib at 1.4198 is the next reference
Failure to hold the 1.4134 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4100 round number
Canada Sep CPI Mon 12:30 GMT: core trim/median versus ~1.9% could materially shift this read
Weekend IMF meetings and Fed-speak headlines could reprice the Monday open
18:03 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing into EMA20 · RSI 43 · price 1.41615
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4299 rejection.
Wednesday's CPI-driven spike to the 1.4299 week high in the first hour of NY was fully unwound by Thursday's Asian session. Since then the pair has printed a sequence of lower highs as falling US yields weighed on USD and firmer oil supported CAD, reaching a 1.4134 week low early in Friday's NY session. The late-Friday bounce has brought price back to the ema20 (~1.4166) and the lower-highs line, with RSI(14) recovering only to the low 40s and still below 50.
Support: 1.4134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4166, 1.4200, 1.4299
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 and the lower-highs line near 1.4166 would end the current lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the 1.4200 round number, close to the 38.2% fib of the week's decline, would shift the read toward a range
Failure to hold the 1.4134 week low extends the lower-low pattern and puts the 1.4000 psych level in focus
Canada Sep CPI Mon 12:30 UTC, core vs ~1.9%, could materially shift this read
A rebound in US yields would challenge the downtrend; the 1.4299 week high marks the top of this week's structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4299 rejection.
The NY-session spike on Wednesday's hot US CPI print to 1.4299 was fully rejected, and price has since printed a clean sequence of lower highs as softer Treasury yields and firmer oil weighed on the pair. Friday's London session extended the slide, and NY hours set a week low at 1.4134 before a bounce toward 1.4160. Price is still trading under the EMA(20) near 1.4167, which has capped each recovery since Thursday, and RSI(14) has lifted only to the low 40s.
Support: 1.4145, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4167, 1.4173, 1.4197
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4173 swing high and the ema20 would mark the first break in the lower-high sequence
Recovery through the lower-highs trendline and the 38.2% fib at 1.4197 would neutralise the downtrend read
Loss of the 1.4145 swing low and the 1.4134 week low confirms another lower-low
Canada CPI on Mon Oct 19 12:30 UTC, followed by the BoC Business Outlook Survey, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.4299 CPI spike.
Wednesday's hot-CPI spike to the 1.4299 week high was fully reversed during NY hours. Lower highs followed at the 1.4222 Thu high and 1.4173 Friday as falling US yields and a firmer loonie drove the slide. Friday's London session extended the move and NY printed a fresh week low at 1.4134 before a bounce toward 1.4157, leaving price below the EMA(20) near 1.4166 with RSI(14) around 40.
Support: 1.4134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4166, 1.4197, 1.4222
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and the ema20 near 1.4166 would break this week's sequence; the 38.2% fib at 1.4197 sits above
Reclaim of the 1.4222 thu high would neutralise the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.4134 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.40 psych level
US Budget Statement 18:00 UTC today, weekend IMF Fed commentary and Monday's Canada CPI (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
15:03 UTC
Downtrend, extending to new week lows · RSI 29 · price 1.41393
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4299 rejection.
The hot US CPI spike in Wednesday's NY session printed the week high at 1.4299 and was rejected within hours. Since then the pair has carved a clean sequence of lower highs (1.4222 thu high, then 1.4173 friday high) as falling US yields and firm oil weighed on the USD side. Friday's NY-session pop to 1.4173 faded straight through the broken low at 1.4145 to a fresh week low at 1.4134, with price below EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) sitting in oversold territory near 28.
Support: 1.4134, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4145, 1.4173, 1.4222
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.4173 friday high breaks the lower-high trendline and the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.4134 week low leaves the 1.4100 round number as the next reference
A recovery above the 1.4145 broken low with RSI lifting out of oversold would mark the first stall in the sequence
Reclaiming the 1.4222 thu high, near the 38.2–50% week fib zone, would neutralise the post-rejection structure
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and weekend IMF-meeting Fed remarks could shift the read into the close
Canada September CPI on Mon Oct 19 at 12:30 UTC is the next high-impact CAD risk
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.4299, with price pressing the week low.
Wednesday's US CPI spike to 1.4299 was fully unwound into the NY session. Since then H1 has printed lower highs and lower lows, as falling Treasury yields and oil near three-week highs weigh on the pair. Friday's London session broke Thursday's prior base near 1.4195 and extended to 1.4145, and an early-NY bounce stalled at EMA(20) near 1.4170 before a fresh low at the 1.4141 friday low. RSI(14) sits near 29, oversold with no bullish divergence yet against the prior low.
Support: 1.4141, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4170, 1.4195, 1.4222
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 near 1.4170 would break the lower-highs trendline from Wednesday's high
Failure to hold the friday low at 1.4141 exposes the 1.4130 channel floor cited in the CAD digest, then the 1.4100 round number
A reclaim of the 1.4195 prior base brings the 38.2% retracement near 1.4201 into play, and the thu high at 1.4222 sits near the 50% level
Weekend IMF Fed-speak and Canada CPI on Mon 19 Oct at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows below EMA20/EMA50 after the CPI reversal.
Wednesday's CPI spike to 1.4299 was fully unwound in the NY session, and that CPI reversal has since produced lower highs at the 1.4222 prior high and under the 1.4200 psych level. Softer USD on falling yields and firm oil kept the pair heavy. Price set a week low at 1.4145 during London on Friday, then the hot import-price print gave a 20-pip bounce into the NY open that stalled under EMA20 near 1.4176 and the descending lower-highs line.
Support: 1.4145, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4176, 1.4200, 1.4222
What it said to watch
An H1 close above EMA20 and the lower-highs trendline near 1.4176 would interrupt the sequence; acceptance back above the 1.4200 psych level invalidates the downtrend read
A break below the 1.4145 week low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 1.4100 round number in view
Rejection at the 1.4222 prior high (50% of the CPI reversal) would keep the lower-high structure intact
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could move the pair within the next bars
Canada CPI and the BoC Business Outlook Survey on Monday could reset the weekly structure
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, stretched into oversold · RSI 26 · price 1.41501
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's CPI spike high.
Wednesday's CPI spike to 1.4299 was fully rejected through the NY session. Since then the pair has printed lower highs, with Thursday's high at 1.4222 and Friday's asian high at 1.4198 capping each bounce. London extended the slide to a fresh week low at 1.4145 as a softer USD and firm oil kept pressure on the pair. Price now sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 26, and the broken 1.4170 thu low is the first level overhead.
Support: 1.4145, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4170, 1.4198, 1.4222
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4170 thu low reclaims broken support and tests the lower highs line
Break of the 1.4198 asian high negates the lower-high sequence; 1.4222 thu high, near the 50% of the CPI spike fib, is next
Failure to hold the 1.4145 week low exposes the 1.4100 round number
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read; Canada CPI on Monday is weekend gap risk
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4299 spike high.
Wednesday's CPI spike was rejected at 1.4299 and price has posted lower highs since. Thursday's NY rally after the US data capped at 1.4222, and Friday's Asia bounce stalled under the lower-highs trendline. Falling UST yields and firm oil extended the slide through the London session, breaking the 1.4170 prior lows to a fresh week low at 1.4149, with price below EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.4149, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4170, 1.4200, 1.4223
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.4170 prior lows would turn this week's break into a false break
A close through the lower-highs trendline and the 1.4200 psych level breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 50% fib at 1.4223 the next cap
Failure to hold the 1.4149 week low leaves the 1.4100 round number in view
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read; Canada CPI on Monday is the next CAD-side risk
Lower highs since Wednesday's CPI spike high; Thursday range broken lower.
Wednesday's CPI spike to 1.4299 met rejection and was fully reversed through NY and Asia. Price has carved lower highs since, as falling Treasury yields and firm oil outweighed Thursday's hot PPI and retail beats, and the 1.4192–1.4222 range gave way during NY hours. Friday's Asia slide after Warsh and the London extension to a new week low at 1.4161 leave price below EMA(20) near 1.4181, with RSI(14) near 33 and the 1.4200 prior floor now overhead.
Support: 1.41608, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4181, 1.4200, 1.42217
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4200 prior floor reclaims Thursday's range and weakens the lower-high sequence
Break of the lower highs trendline (near 1.4184) and the 1.4222 lower high, near the 38.2% retrace of the CPI spike decline, would neutralise the downtrend read
Sustained trade below the 1.4161 week low leaves the 1.4100 round number as the next reference
US Industrial Production and import prices at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read; Monday's Canada CPI is the larger event risk
Lower highs since Wednesday's CPI spike high; Thursday low broken.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's CPI spike to the 1.4299 week high was rejected, with the dollar fading on falling Treasury yields despite a run of hot US data. Friday's Asia and early London sessions pushed through Thursday's 1.4169 thu low to a fresh week low near 1.4161, with price below EMA(20) at about 1.4180 and RSI(14) near 33. A descending trendline from Thursday's 1.4222 high has capped each rebound, and the 1.4150 psych level sits just beneath.
Support: 1.4161, 1.4150, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4169, 1.4180, 1.4198
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4198 lower high breaks the descending trendline sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4150 psych level opens the 1.4100 round number
A rebound into the 38.2% retrace of the CPI-spike decline near 1.4214 would test whether the lower-high structure holds
Reclaiming the thu low at 1.4169 and the ema20 near 1.4180 would mark Friday's break as a false break
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Canada CPI on Monday 12:30 GMT is the next scheduled event risk for this structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's CPI spike.
Wednesday's NY-session CPI spike to 1.4299 fully reversed. The pair has since printed a run of lower highs: the Thursday high at 1.4222 during NY data, then a lower high at 1.4198 in Friday's Asia session, as soft USD on falling yields and oil near three-week highs outweighed the US data beats. London session pushed through the 1.4169 Thursday low to a fresh week low at 1.4163, with price below EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 35, short of oversold.
Support: 1.4163, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4169, 1.4198, 1.4222
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4169 thu low would mark the break as a false break
Price holding below the lower-highs line from the thu high keeps the sequence intact; a reclaim of the 1.4198 lower high breaks it
1.4150 round number aligns with the cited channel base; acceptance below extends the week low
Recovery into the 38.2% retrace of the CPI spike move near 1.4215 tests the thu high
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC today and Canada CPI Monday 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.4299 rejection, compressing at 1.4169.
USD/CAD has given back all of Wednesday's NY-session CPI spike to the 1.4299 week high. It has printed lower highs since, and EMA(20) near 1.4189 capped Friday's Asia session. Thursday's NY wick to the 1.4169 week low after the hot US PPI rebounded, but USD gains faded as yields fell. That low was retested through Asia and is under pressure into London open, with RSI(14) near 40 still holding off oversold.
Support: 1.4169, 1.4150, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4189, 1.4222, 1.4299
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4169 week low confirms a lower low, exposing the 1.4150 psych level and then the 1.4100 round number
A close above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.4222 Thu high (38.2% fib of the Wed-Thu drop) breaks the sequence
Reclaiming ema20 would signal the Friday compression is turning into a range rather than continuation
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC today could shift this read; USD has faded hot data all week
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 GMT is the next CAD catalyst for the week-low area
Lower highs since CPI spike, twin lows near 1.4170.
Wednesday's hot US CPI spike to the 1.4299 week high in NY hours poked above Monday's high and fully reversed. That false break set a lower-high sequence into a 1.4169 week low in Thursday's NY session, as USD faded strong PPI and retail sales data on falling yields. Friday's Asian session retested the week low at 1.4171 around Warsh's remarks and held, but price sits below EMA(20) near 1.4192 with RSI(14) near 41, capped by the lower-high trendline off Thursday's 1.4222 high (thu high).
Support: 1.4170, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4192, 1.4222, 1.4299
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the lower-high trendline and EMA(20) near 1.4192 would mark the first break of the post-CPI sequence. The 1.4222 thu high sits just above the 38.2% retrace of the CPI spike.
Failure to hold the 1.4170 week low confirms a fresh lower low and exposes the 1.4150 round number.
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC and the Treasury yield path could materially shift this read. Recent hot US prints have been faded.
Only a recovery toward the 61.8% retrace near 1.4250 would challenge the rejection from the 1.4299 week high.
Lower highs from 1.4299 CPI spike, equal lows near 1.4170.
Wednesday's US CPI spike to the 1.4299 cpi high was rejected within the same NY session. Since then the pair has printed lower highs: the 1.4222 Thu NY high capped near the 38.2% retracement of the fade, and this morning's Asia session topped at the 1.4198 lower high, with falling Treasury yields keeping USD heavy. Price trades below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 35, pressing the 1.4169–1.4171 equal lows set in Thursday's NY session and again in today's Asian range.
Support: 1.4170, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4198, 1.4222, 1.4299
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4169 equal lows extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4150 psych level
H1 close above the 1.4198 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.4222 Thu NY high back in view
Reaction to Macklem's BoC remarks and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
A rebound in US Treasury yields would challenge the CPI-spike fade structure
Lower highs since Wednesday's CPI spike; 1.4195 floor broken.
Wednesday's CPI spike to 1.4299 during NY hours briefly cleared Monday's 1.4287 high, then failed and has fully unwound, printing a lower high at 1.4222 after Thursday's US data and another near 1.4198 in the Asia session. Thursday's NY session broke the 1.4195 broken floor as Treasury yields slid despite the PPI and retail sales beats. Price is now testing the 1.4169 week low with RSI(14) near 36, below EMA(20) at 1.4188, which has capped every bounce since Thursday.
Support: 1.4169, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4188, 1.4195, 1.4222
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 1.4195 broken floor would negate the range break
Failure to hold the 1.4169 week low opens the 1.4150 round number, the ascending-channel base flagged in the CAD read
Reclaiming the 1.4222 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence off the CPI spike and the downtrend line
Warsh and Macklem remarks early Friday could materially shift this read; a US yield rebound is the main threat to the downtrend
Range break lower, then tight consolidation under the old floor.
From the 1.4257 weekly open, the pair spiked to 1.4299 on Wednesday's CPI print during NY hours, then fully reversed as US yields fell. Thursday broke the 1.4196–1.4203 prior floor, and the 1.4222 thu high on the hot PPI and retail data faded fast, with NY driving the pair to a 1.4169 week low. Since then the pair has compressed between the 1.4182 pullback low and 1.4198 through the Asia session. It sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50), RSI(14) is near 40, and the lower-highs line from the data spike caps each bounce.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4169, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4196, 1.4222, 1.4257
What it said to watch
Warsh at 03:30 UTC and Macklem at 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read inside the next two bars
H1 close back above the 1.4196 prior floor (also the 23.6% fib of the week's drop) would turn Thursday's break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4182 pullback low exposes the 1.4169 week low, with the 1.4150 round number below
A push through the lower-highs line and the 1.4222 thu high would bring the 1.4257 weekly open back into play
Lower highs since Wednesday's CPI spike; former 1.4200 floor now being retested from below.
USD/CAD has fully unwound Wednesday's CPI-driven spike to 1.4299, a rejection that led into a week low of 1.4169 during NY hours Thursday as falling US yields outweighed hot PPI and retail sales; the PPI pop to 1.4222 left another lower high. The 1.4195–1.4200 area that held from Tuesday through Thursday's Asian session is now a broken floor, and Friday's Asian drift has stalled just beneath it, where EMA(20) near 1.4197 and the 23.6% retracement of the CPI-spike fib also converge. RSI(14) sits around 40 and H1 lower highs remain intact, with the fib 50% at 1.4234 the next reference above.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4222, 1.4234
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC and Macklem at 04:15 UTC, both within ~2h, could materially shift this read
Hourly close back above the 1.4200 broken floor and the lower highs trendline weakens the retest read; the 1.4222 lower high and the 1.4234 fib 50% sit above
Failure at 1.4200 followed by a break of the 1.4182 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4169 week low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC during the NY session is a secondary risk to the range
Lower highs from Wednesday's 1.4299 spike; higher lows off the 1.4169 week low.
Wednesday's US CPI spike to the 1.4299 week high was fully rejected through Thursday as falling Treasury yields weighed on USD. Thursday's NY session printed the week low at 1.4169 even after hot PPI and retail sales. Since then the pair has built higher lows above the 1.4182 late-NY low into the Asia session. Price is now retesting the 1.4200 round number, where EMA(20) also sits, while EMA(50) remains overhead and RSI(14) near 44 holds below 50.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4222, 1.4299
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC and Macklem at 04:15 UTC fall inside the next few H1 bars and could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.4200 round number and EMA(20) turns the retest into a reclaim, with the 1.4222 thu high (near the 38.2% fib) next
Rejection at 1.4200 and a break of the 1.4182 late-NY low would undo the higher-lows sequence and put the 1.4169 week low back in focus
Recovery toward the 1.4299 week high would require a reversal of the yield-driven USD selloff
Lower highs from the 1.4299 spike; lower low at 1.4169, tight base above.
Wednesday's CPI spike through Monday's 1.4287 high to the 1.4299 week high was a false break, fully unwound into Thursday as falling Treasury yields overrode hot PPI and retail sales. The NY open on Thursday swept to the 1.4169 week low and broke the Monday-Wednesday range floor near 1.4196. Since then the pair has held a tight 1.4182-1.4195 band just beneath EMA(20) at 1.4198, with RSI(14) in the low 40s, and price is pressing the falling trendline drawn from 1.4299 through Thursday's 1.4222 high.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4169
Resistance: 1.4198, 1.4222, 1.4299
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC and BoC's Macklem at 04:15 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above EMA(20) at 1.4198 and the falling trendline opens Thursday's high at 1.4222, near the 38.2% fib
Failure to hold the Thursday NY low at 1.4182 exposes the 1.4169 week low and extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 50% fib at 1.4234 would undercut the downtrend read, with the 1.4299 week high as the upper cap