Lower highs and lower lows, consolidating near 1-month lows.
USDCAD has trended lower since early in the window, printing a steady sequence of lower highs and lower lows into fresh 1-month lows near 1.4006. Price is now grinding sideways just above the 1.4000 psych level with ATR(14) compressing, both EMAs capping overhead. BoC's dovish-lean hold and firmer oil have underpinned CAD strength, with Monday's Canada CPI the next catalyst.
Support: 1.4006, 1.4000, 1.3974
Resistance: 1.4051, 1.4077, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4000 psych opens the 1.3974 fair value zone
Reclaim of 1.4130 (ema50) would question the lower-high structure
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Downtrend intact since the 1.4247 highs, with a sharp leg lower over the past week as CAD firmed on oil and softer US inflation cooled Fed pricing. Price is now compressing in a tight 1.4020-1.4057 range just above the 1.4006 swing low, and ATR is contracting off the impulse. Descending lower highs cap rallies below 1.4077.
Support: 1.4006, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4057, 1.4077
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4006 confirms a fresh lower low and extends the downtrend
Reclaim of 1.4077 breaks the descending resistance and neutralises the decline
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 GMT is the next catalyst and could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, consolidating above 1.4000.
USDCAD is in a clean H4 downtrend, printing lower highs and lower lows since the mid-window rollover as the pair fell toward a one-month low and pinned just above the 1.4000 psychological support. The slide has been driven by broad USD softness and a firm oil bid; ATR(14) has compressed to ~20 pips as price stalls in a tight range near the lows. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, keeping the bearish structure intact.
Support: 1.4000, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4000 opens the fair-value zone toward 1.3974/1.3981
Reclaim of 1.4130 nine-day EMA would challenge the lower-high sequence
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has trended lower for two weeks, printing successive lower highs and lower lows from 1.4248 down to the 1.4010 swing low as USD softness and firmer oil pressured the pair. Price is now basing in a tight 1.4020-1.4058 band just above the 1.4000 psych level, with ATR compressing as the selloff loses pace. Both EMAs sit overhead, keeping the descending structure intact into next week's Canada CPI.
Support: 1.4000, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4058, 1.4130, 1.4171
What it said to watch
Decisive H4 close below 1.4000 psych extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.4058 swing high then 1.4130 9-day ema would question the downtrend
Canada CPI (Mon 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
09:03 UTC
Downtrend, extended · RSI 38 · price 1.40274
Lower highs, lower lows since mid-window.
USDCAD has broken and held below the 1.41 shelf, extending a clean lower-high, lower-low sequence off the 1.4248 area, with the loonie firm near four-week highs after the mildly-toned BoC hold and higher oil. Price is pinned under both EMAs and pressing the 1.4010 swing low, with the 1.40 handle the immediate pivot. ATR remains elevated from the recent impulse leg, keeping the down-move directional rather than compressive.
Support: 1.40101, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4130, 1.42476
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.4130 (9-day EMA) would neutralise the lower-high structure
Failure to hold 1.4010 opens the path toward the 1.3970 four-week low zone
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC is the next domestic catalyst and could reset this read
US UoM sentiment / inflation expectations today 14:00 UTC could revive USD bid
Lower highs and lower lows since early-month peak.
USDCAD has been rolling over since the 1.4247 peak, carving lower highs and lower lows and breaking the 1.4100 shelf as CAD firmed on higher oil and a hawkish-toned BoC hold. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 with ATR(14) expanding, confirming trend extension rather than compression. RSI near 34 shows momentum stretched but not yet at capitulation.
Support: 1.40101, 1.3970, 1.3974
Resistance: 1.40769, 1.41316, 1.42019
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4010 opens the path toward the 1.3970 four-week low zone
Reclaim of 1.4077 would question the lower-high structure
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC is the next domestic catalyst that could reshape this read
USDCAD extended a multi-day downtrend, rolling over below the 1.4230 shelf and sliding to a four-week low near 1.4010 as soft US PPI and firm oil kept CAD supported into the balanced BoC hold. Price is now compressing in a tight 1.4030-1.4058 band above that low, with ATR(14) contracting as the slide stalls. Both EMA20 and EMA50 sit above price, capping bounces.
Support: 1.4010, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4058, 1.4090
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4010 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.4090 would challenge the lower-high structure
Michigan sentiment today and Canada CPI Mon Jul 20 could shift this read
USDCAD has carved a clean sequence of lower highs from the 1.4240 area down to a four-week low at 1.4010, with the firmer USD data run and BoC hold framing the slide. The last ten bars have compressed into a tight 1.4020-1.4058 range just above the low, and price trades well below both EMAs. ATR is easing off the impulse-leg spike, consistent with the stall into consolidation.
Support: 1.40101, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40577, 1.40769, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4010 swing low confirms the next lower-low
reclaim of 1.4130 9-day ema would neutralise the downtrend read
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC is the key catalyst into next week
Clean downtrend since the mid-window highs near 1.4247, with lower highs and lower lows accelerating after soft US CPI/PPI drove the dollar to a one-month low, while firm oil kept CAD supported. Price is now consolidating in a tight 1.4040-1.4058 band just above the 1.4010 swing low, with ATR(14) still elevated from the recent leg down. Momentum is heavy but not yet oversold as the market coils near the lows.
Support: 1.4010, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4058, 1.4100, 1.4135
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4000 round number opens the next leg lower
Reclaim of the 1.41 prior range would signal short-covering
Canada CPI Mon Jul 20 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD remains in a clear H4 downtrend, printing lower highs and lows since the 1.4248 area and breaking the 1.41 pivot as soft US CPI/PPI pressured the dollar and firm oil supported CAD. Price has since carved a tight consolidation between 1.401 and 1.408 just above the 1.40101 swing low, with ATR still elevated after the impulsive leg down. Both EMAs sit above price and slope lower, keeping the bearish structure intact.
Support: 1.40101, 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.40769, 1.4130, 1.4225
What it said to watch
Sustained close back above 1.41300 would signal short-covering and challenge the downtrend read
Failure to hold 1.40101 opens the path toward 1.40000 psych and 50d ma near 1.3970
Canada CPI Mon 12:30 UTC could materially reprice this move