21:05 UTC
Pullback inside a two-month uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 39 · price 1.40666
Triple top at 1.4300 broke its neckline; price testing the 50% fib of the Aug–Oct rally.
The rally from the late-August low at 1.3732 stalled in mid-October, where three daily tests of 1.4290–1.4299 formed a triple top. The pair then broke the 1.4196 neckline and the September rally line, falling about 270 pips as BoC October hike pricing, oil at five-month highs and a soft USD lifted CAD. Price now trades below the EMA(20) and is pressing the EMA(50) near 1.4085. The 1.4032 swing low and the 50% fib at 1.4016 are the next floor, with RSI near 39 and not yet oversold.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4016, 1.3949
Resistance: 1.4085, 1.4196, 1.4299
What it said to watch
- A daily close below the 1.4032 swing low and the 50% fib at 1.4016 would confirm a deeper retracement toward the 61.8% fib at 1.3949
- A reclaim of the EMA(50) near 1.4085 and the 1.4196 neckline would neutralise the triple top read
- BoC decision on Oct 28 (~80% hike priced): a hold or a one-off 'insurance' hike could reverse the CAD leg sharply
- Friday's Canada retail sales and US flash PMIs could shift rate pricing ahead of next week's Fed and BoC meetings
- Oil and US-Iran headlines: a drop in crude would weaken the CAD support behind this decline