Higher highs and higher lows, recent sharp rejection from range top.
Multi-week uptrend from the 1.3580 base remains intact, with price stair-stepping into a 1.3869 swing high before a sharp rejection that traded back to 1.3770 session low. The leg from 1.3869 down to 1.3789 — partly driven by softer US Dollar after weak GDP — broke the short-term higher-low rhythm and left a bearish divergence on the H4 RSI. Buyers stepping in around the 1.3770 area, with EMA50 still rising below, keeps the broader structure constructive even as upside momentum cools.
Support: 1.3770, 1.3730, 1.3690
Resistance: 1.3829, 1.38515, 1.38695
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.37700 session low opens path toward the 1.37300 prior swing
Reclaim of 1.38290 intraday high needed to re-engage the 1.38515 range top
Ongoing US-Iran headlines and USMCA auto-sourcing proposal could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows, recent lower-high forming.
USDCAD pushed to a 1.38695 swing high before a sharp rejection drove price back through the 1.38200 zone, printing a clear lower-high against the prior peak. Higher-low structure since early-month remains intact above 1.37320, but the bearish RSI divergence into the latest top and failed reclaim of EMA20 point to momentum cooling. Soft Canadian Q1 GDP today failed to push USDCAD higher, reinforcing the rejection read.
Support: 1.37733, 1.3732, 1.3690
Resistance: 1.38236, 1.38695
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.38236 prior high would neutralise the rejection read
Loss of 1.37733 swing low confirms a lower-low and breaks the uptrend structure
Sustained trade below 1.37320 prior pivot opens the 1.36900 range base
Three-week uptrend off 1.3550 stalled at the 1.3870 swing high, with a sharp rejection candle dumping price ~80 pips back into the prior range. Structure now sits at a decision point: EMA20 lost, EMA50 (around 1.3780) holding for the moment, and price has bounced off the 1.37733 swing low. ATR(14) is steady near 17 pips and RSI cooled from overbought into neutral, suggesting the impulsive leg has paused rather than fully reversed.
Support: 1.37733, 1.37307, 1.3690
Resistance: 1.3820, 1.38693
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.37733 swing low confirms a lower-low and breaks the multi-week uptrend
Reclaim of 1.38200 broken support reopens the path to the 1.38693 swing high
Failure at the 1.38200 area on a retest would reinforce the rejection read
Higher-highs sequence broken by rejection from 1.3870.
Multi-week uptrend from 1.3550 carried price into the 1.3870 area where sellers stepped in firmly, producing a wide rejection bar back through the EMA20 to retest 1.3773. The swing-high at 1.38695 stands as a clear cap and the latest push made a marginally lower high before the sharp reversal, hinting at bearish RSI divergence at the top of the run. Price now sits between the EMA20 above and EMA50 near 1.3705, with structure intact only while 1.3773 holds.
Support: 1.3773, 1.3743, 1.3705
Resistance: 1.3829, 1.38695
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.37730 confirms a lower-low and breaks the uptrend structure
Reclaim of 1.38290 (ema20) puts the 1.38695 range high back in play
Failure to hold 1.37430 prior pivot opens the path back to the EMA50 near 1.37050
Canada GDP release later today could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows, sharp pullback from range top.
Multi-week uptrend from 1.3550 stretched to 1.3869 before a sharp rejection drove price back through the EMA20 in two impulsive bars. Higher-low structure is still intact while 1.3740 holds, but the rejection high at 1.38693 paired with cooling momentum points to a deeper consolidation. ATR remains elevated after the impulse leg lower, signalling expansion rather than compression.
Support: 1.37733, 1.3740, 1.3705
Resistance: 1.38236, 1.38693
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.3740 breaks the higher-low structure and exposes the 1.3705 ema50
Reclaim of 1.38236 swing high reasserts trend continuation
Failure at 1.3740 confirms a lower-low and shifts the swing read