USD/CHF AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 1 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CHF 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into early Asia · RSI 51 · price 0.8308
Lower highs after NY flush; tight 0.8302–0.8313 range.
London's spike to the 0.8382 high gave way in NY hours. CHF regained ground despite firm US data, and the pair flushed through 0.8300 to a day low at 0.8292. The rebound was rejected at the 0.8330 bounce high near the 50% retracement, and late NY into early Asia has compressed into a 0.8302–0.8313 range under lower highs, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.8302, 0.8292
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8302 range low reopens the 0.8292 day low
Break above the 0.8313 range top and the lower-highs line puts the 0.8330 bounce high back in focus
Fri 12:30 UTC NFP (f/c 90K) is the likely catalyst to break this compression
23:31 UTC
Downtrend from 0.8382, stalling in Asia · RSI 50 · price 0.83093
Lower high at 0.8330 after NY sell-off; tight Asian range 0.8303–0.8313.
The 16-month high at 0.8382 printed around the in-line Swiss CPI and was rejected. NY then broke the London low at 0.8333 around the ISM headline miss and ran to a 0.8292 day low. The rebound stalled at 0.8330, the NY high, near the 38.2% fib retrace, and the early Asia session is coiling in a 10-pip band between the 0.8302 late NY low and the 0.8313 Asian high.
Support: 0.8302, 0.8292
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8330, 0.8333
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8302 late NY low exposes the 0.8292 day low
M15 close above the 0.8313 Asian high opens a retest of the 0.8330 NY high and 38.2% fib
Recapture of the 0.8333 London low would neutralise the lower-high read
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) is the next catalyst capable of breaking the Asian range
USD/CHF broke below the 0.8333 london low during NY hours around the ISM miss and fell to a 0.8292 ny low. The rebound stalled at the 0.8330 bounce high, below the 50% fib of the 0.8372–0.8292 drop, and has since printed lower highs. Price is now pinned in a thin early-Asia band between the 0.8302 late ny low and the 0.8313 asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.83021, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.83295, 0.83331
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8313 asian high breaks the lower-highs line; the bounce high at 0.8330 and london low at 0.8333 sit above as the next resistance
Failure to hold the 0.8302 late ny low exposes the 0.8292 ny low
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
22:46 UTC
Downtrend after NY breakdown, now flat · RSI 54 · price 0.83113
Lower high at 0.8330 after 0.8292 low; tight 0.8302–0.8313 post-rollover box.
The 0.8382 16-month high printed just before London open and failed. The NY session then broke down around the ISM release, with the headline miss and post-PCE trimming of Fed hike odds behind the move, and the day low came in at 0.8292. The rebound stalled at a 0.8330 lower high, about a 44% retrace of the NY selloff, and price is now boxed between the 0.8302 NY low and the 0.8313 rollover high in thin trade, RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.83021, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.83295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8313 rollover high breaks the post-rollover box
Close above the 0.8330 lower high negates the NY lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8302 NY low exposes the 0.8292 day low
Thin Asia session liquidity can exaggerate moves out of the box
NFP, unemployment and AHE Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 51 · price 0.83121
Lower high at 0.8330 after selloff, tight Asian range 0.8302-0.8313.
USDCHF has shed about 90 pips from the 0.8382 spike high printed on Swiss CPI. The deepest leg came around the 14:00 UTC ISM release (headline miss) and ran to a 0.8292 day low, and the rebound stalled at the 0.8330 rebound high just under the 50% retracement of the selloff fib. Early Asia session is compressed between the 0.8302 late NY low and the 0.8313 Asia high, with ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 0.8302, 0.8292
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8302 late NY low exposes the 0.8292 day low
Acceptance above the 0.8313 Asia high and the 0.8330 rebound high would negate the lower-high sequence
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
22:16 UTC
Downtrend since 0.8382 high, now basing · RSI 46 · price 0.83125
Lower highs from 0.8382; higher lows off 0.8292 into Asia.
The early-London spike to the 16-month high at 0.8382 was rejected. NY selling broke the London low at 0.8333 and accelerated around the ISM headline miss into a day low of 0.8292. The rebound capped at the 0.8330 bounce high near the 38.2% fib, and price is now holding a higher-lows line off 0.8302 into the Asia session, sitting on EMA20 with RSI neutral.
Support: 0.83021, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83295, 0.83331
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8330 bounce high and 0.8333 london low opens the 50% fib near 0.8337
Failure to hold the 0.8302 late-ny low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 0.8292 day low
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; thin Asia liquidity until then
22:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after NY sell-off · RSI 36 · price 0.8306
Lower highs from 0.8330 rebound high into tight post-NY band.
USD/CHF was rejected at the 0.8382 London high, then broke below the Asian range low during NY hours after the ISM headline miss and set a 0.8292 day low. The bounce stalled at the 0.8330 rebound high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib levels. Lower highs since have squeezed price into a thin band between the 0.8302 late low and 0.8311 late high after NY close.
Support: 0.8302, 0.8292
Resistance: 0.8311, 0.8330
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.8292 day low extends the NY lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 0.8311 late high breaks the lower-highs trendline; above the 0.8330 rebound high negates the sell-off structure
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
Asia session break of the 0.8302–0.8311 band sets the next intraday leg; post-NY liquidity is thin
Lower highs after the NY breakdown, tight base above day low.
USDCHF reversed from the 0.8382 London-open spike after Swiss CPI. It broke the 0.8333 London low during NY hours on the ISM headline miss and bottomed at the 0.8292 day low. The rebound stalled at the 0.8330 rebound high near the 38.2% fib, and post-NY-close trade is drifting in a thin 0.8302–0.8311 band with the lower-highs line intact.
Support: 0.8302, 0.8292
Resistance: 0.8311, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8311 lower high breaks the lower-highs line
Loss of the 0.8302 late floor exposes the 0.8292 day low
Recovery through the 0.8330 rebound high negates the downtrend read
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs below 0.8330, basing above 0.8300 after NY selloff.
NY hours broke the 0.8333 London low as October Fed hike pricing was trimmed, extending to a 0.8292 day low. The rebound was rejected at the 0.8330 rebound high near the 38.2% fib of the drop from 0.8382, and late NY has printed lower highs into a 0.8302–0.8311 base above the 0.8300 psych level, with thin post-close trade.
Support: 0.83021, 0.8300, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83295, 0.83331
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8330 rebound high and 0.8333 London low breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8302 late NY low and 0.8300 psych exposes the 0.8292 day low
Fri 12:30 UTC NFP (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8330, tight 0.8302–0.8311 band at rollover.
USDCHF rejected the early-Europe 0.8382 high, broke the Asian range (0.8347–0.8368) and extended to a 0.8292 ny low around the 14:00 UTC ISM release (headline miss). The bounce capped at a 0.8330 lower high, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the NY sell-off, and price has since drifted under the lower highs line into a quiet 0.8302–0.8311 band at the rollover, RSI(14) near 40 and ATR about 8 pips.
Support: 0.8302, 0.8292
Resistance: 0.8330, 0.8347
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.8302 late low re-exposes the 0.8292 ny low
A close above the lower highs line and the 0.8330 lower high would break the post-NY fade structure
Reclaiming the 0.8347 asian low would put price back inside the prior range
Friday NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the next catalyst; thin rollover liquidity until then
21:03 UTC
Downtrend, late-NY drift · RSI 43 · price 0.83097
Lower high at 0.8330 after NY low; tight range above 0.8302.
The Swiss CPI spike to 0.8382 failed during London. NY then broke the 0.8333 breakdown level around the ISM release and printed a 0.8292 NY low, despite the firm USD tone in the digest. The bounce high at 0.8330 stalled just under the 61.8% of the NY drop fib, and late NY is compressing just above the 0.8302 late low with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 0.83021, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83295, 0.83332
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8333 breakdown level negates the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.8302 late low exposes the 0.8292 NY low
Rejection again at the 0.8330 bounce high keeps the NY drop fib capping
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
20:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 40 · price 0.83072
Lower highs since the 0.8330 bounce high, compressing just above 0.8302.
Early-London rejection at the 0.8382 16-month high turned into a slide through the london low at 0.8333 during the 14:00 UTC US data window, printing a day low at 0.8292. The NY bounce stalled at 0.8330, near the 38.2% of the drop fib, and late NY is grinding in a tight band above the 0.8302 late ny low, below both EMAs.
Support: 0.83021, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83295, 0.83332
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.8302 late ny low exposes the 0.8292 day low
Recovery above the 0.8330 bounce high and the london low at 0.8333 would end the lower-high sequence
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
20:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, momentum fading into the close · RSI 34 · price 0.83026
Lower highs from 0.8330, compressing above 0.8300.
USD/CHF faded from the 0.8382 London-open spike and broke the 0.8333 London low in NY hours, flushing to a 0.8292 session low as trimmed October Fed hike odds outweighed firm US claims. The bounce was rejected at 0.8330, roughly 56% of the NY sell-off, and lower highs since then have squeezed price into a tight 0.8302–0.8308 band under the late-NY top, just above 0.8300 psych. RSI(14) sits near 34 and ATR is contracting after NY close.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83078, 0.83295, 0.83331
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.8300 psych exposes the 0.8292 session low
Close above the 0.8308 late-NY top breaks the lower-highs sequence; 0.8330 lower high and 0.8333 london low sit above
Thin post-NY / Asia session liquidity may keep the range tight ahead of US data
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
20:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 35 · price 0.83042
Lower highs from 0.8330 bounce, pressing late-NY lows.
NY session broke the London range floor at the 0.8333 breakdown level around the US ISM releases and flushed to a 0.8292 session low. The rebound saw rejection at the 0.8330 bounce high near the 38.2% fib of the day's drop. A lower-high sequence has since pushed price back to the 0.8304 late NY low, with RSI(14) near 35 and ranges compressing into the Asia handover.
Support: 0.83035, 0.82994, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83131, 0.83295, 0.83332
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8313 lower high breaks the trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold 0.8304 late NY low exposes the 0.8299 swing low and 0.8292 session low
Reclaim of 0.8330–0.8333 (bounce high / breakdown) would neutralise the NY selloff structure
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs below 0.8330 after the post-ISM flush to 0.8292.
The Swiss CPI spike to 0.8382 failed during London, and the pair broke the 0.8333 london low after the US ISM headline miss around 14:00 UTC, flushing to a 0.8292 ny low. The rebound stalled at the 0.8330 bounce high, below the broken London low. Late-NY lower highs have since dragged price under the ema20 to the 0.8304 late low, near the 61.8% fib of the bounce, with RSI(14) soft near 34 and not yet oversold.
Support: 0.8304, 0.8300, 0.8292
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8330, 0.8333
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8304 late low and the 0.8300 round number exposes the 0.8292 ny low
An M15 close back above the ema20 near 0.8313 breaks the lower-highs sequence
Recovery through the 0.8330 bounce high and 0.8333 london low invalidates the downtrend read
Fed speaker headlines (Bowman, Williams, Cook) are still filtering through thin late-NY and Asia session liquidity
19:46 UTC
Downtrend, bounce fading · RSI 40 · price 0.83056
NY range break lower, lower high at 0.8330, sliding back toward lows.
After the 0.8382 spike on Swiss CPI faded, NY hours broke the Asian low at 0.8347 and slid to a 0.8292 NY low as softer US data trimmed Fed hike odds. The bounce was capped at a 0.8330 bounce high, just shy of the 61.8% of the drop. Price has since lost the 38.2% fib at 0.8318 and is drifting toward the 0.8300 round number late in the NY session, with RSI(14) near 40 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83176, 0.83295, 0.83469
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8292 NY low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 0.8330 bounce high reopens the 0.8347 Asian low
Hold of the 0.8300 round number would leave a higher low against the NY low
Fed's Williams and Cook (from 19:30 UTC) could shift this read; NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
London's spike to 0.8382 reversed, and NY hours broke the 0.8333 London low to a 0.8292 session low as CHF caught a bid against the hawkish-USD backdrop. The rebound was rejected at the 0.8330 bounce high and has stepped lower since. Price is now back on the 0.8306 swing low near the 61.8% retrace, with RSI(14) at about 34 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.83058, 0.8300, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83295, 0.83469
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8306 swing low ends the higher-low sequence off the session low and exposes the 0.8300 round number and 0.8292
Recovery through the 0.8330 bounce high reopens the 0.8347 asian low area
Fed speakers Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC) and Friday's NFP (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower high at 0.8330 after 90-pip drop; price below bounce trendline, testing the 0.8306 higher low.
London reversed sharply from the 0.8382 high, and NY broke the Asian low at 0.8347 around the US ISM release, extending to the NY low at 0.8292. The rebound stalled at the bounce high of 0.8330, near the 38.2% fib of the drop. Price has since slipped under the bounce trendline to 0.8311, with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 0.83058, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83295, 0.83469
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8306 higher low completes a lower-high/lower-low sequence back toward the 0.8292 NY low
M15 close above the 0.8330 bounce high and 38.2% fib reopens the 0.8347 Asian low
Williams and Cook at 19:30 UTC could shift Fed hike pricing; NFP Friday 12:30 UTC is the next major catalyst
19:03 UTC
Downtrend after NY break, rebound fading · RSI 41 · price 0.83159
Range break lower, then a corrective lower-high bounce.
London's CPI-hour spike to 0.8382 reversed, and NY hours then broke the 0.8333–0.8372 day range lower, sliding to the 0.8292 NY low as softer US data trimmed Fed-hike odds. The late-NY rebound stalled at the 0.8330 swing high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the sell-off. Price is now easing back toward the 0.8306 swing low and the rebound trendline, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.83058, 0.8300, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83295, 0.83543
What it said to watch
Close below the rebound trendline and the 0.8306 swing low reopens the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8292 NY low
M15 close above the 0.8330 swing high (61.8% fib zone) shifts the read toward a deeper retrace into the 0.8354 breakdown area
Fed speakers Bowman (19:00 UTC), Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC) could jolt the late-NY range
NFP Friday 12:30 UTC is the next major catalyst for the pair
Higher lows off the NY low, capped below broken 0.8333.
Rejection at the 0.8382 16-month high before London was followed by a range break through the asian low 0.8347 and the London broken low 0.8333. The slide sped up into the ISM window, despite broad USD firmness, and bottomed at the 0.8292 session low in early NY. The late-NY bounce off rising lows stalled at the 0.8330 rebound high, just shy of the 61.8% retrace of the NY drop. Price is back near the 38.2% at 0.8317, below EMA20, with the 0.8306 swing low and 0.8300 psych underneath.
Support: 0.83058, 0.8300, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83295, 0.83332, 0.83469
What it said to watch
Fed Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) speak in the next hour and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.8306 swing low breaks the rising lows chain and exposes 0.8300 psych and the 0.8292 session low
Acceptance above the 0.8330 rebound high and 0.8333 broken low would put the asian low at 0.8347 back in play
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the next major catalyst for the pair
HL/HH flag off 0.8292 session low, capped below 0.8333 London low.
The 0.8382 Swiss CPI spike faded through London. The first hour of NY broke the 0.8333 London low, and after the 0.8348 ism bounce failed at the 14:00 UTC release, price slid to a 0.8292 session low. Late NY recovery is a flag of higher lows along a rising trendline, with the 0.8330 bounce high stalling just under the 61.8% retrace and the London low, price pinned at EMA20.
Support: 0.8311, 0.83058, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83295, 0.8333, 0.83484
What it said to watch
Fed Bowman 19:00 UTC and Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above 0.8333 london low reclaims the broken range and negates the 61.8% cap
Break of the rising trendline near 0.8311 and the 0.8306 higher low ends the flag
Loss of 0.8292 session low resumes the NY downtrend
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the next major risk event for the pair
18:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, corrective rebound in late NY · RSI 50 · price 0.83229
Range break lower at 14:00 UTC, higher lows since the 0.8292 NY low.
After the Swiss CPI spike to 0.8382, the pair broke down around the 14:00 UTC ISM release and fell to a 0.8292 NY low. It has since built a higher-low trendline and is testing the 50% fib of the slide near 0.8326, flat on EMA20 and just under the 0.8330 bounce high.
Support: 0.83058, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83295, 0.83332, 0.83469
What it said to watch
A close back above 0.8333, the london low and 61.8% fib of the slide, reclaims the broken range floor and puts the 0.8347 asian low back in focus
A break of the 0.8306 higher low takes out the higher-low trendline and reopens the 0.8292 ny low
Fed Bowman at 19:00 UTC and Williams/Cook at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London range broken lower, higher lows forming off session low.
NY session broke the 0.8347–0.8359 London range lower and flushed to a 0.8292 session low around the ISM release. The move ran against broad USD strength, consistent with a CHF bid on risk-off. Late NY has printed higher lows at 0.8299 and 0.8306, with price now through the 0.8325 prior high and sitting between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the NY drop.
Support: 0.83248, 0.83058, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83335, 0.83467, 0.83592
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8325 prior high puts the recovery leg in question
Break of the 0.8306 higher low snaps the higher-low line and reopens the 0.8292 session low
Acceptance above the 0.8334 61.8% fib brings the 0.8347 london low and the 0.8359 swing high into view
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8382; higher lows off 0.8292 NY low in a 0.8306–0.8325 box.
USDCHF was rejected at 0.8382 on the Swiss CPI spike and lost the Asian low at 0.8347 in London. In NY it slid to the 0.8292 NY low around the US ISM window, with CHF bid despite broad USD strength. Late NY is printing higher lows off 0.8292, but the 0.8325 bounce high is capping near the 50% fib and EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 0.83058, 0.8300, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83248, 0.8333, 0.8347
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8325 bounce high exposes the 0.8333 fib 61.8, which is also the former London low
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.8306 higher low puts the 0.8300 psych level and the 0.8292 NY low back in play
Asian low at 0.8347 is now overhead; only a reclaim there undoes the day's breakdown
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could materially shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP
NY broke the London range; lower highs below 38.2% fib.
After the 0.8382 Asia high was rejected in London, the NY session broke the 0.8333 London low around the ISM release and ran to a 0.8292 session low. That came despite hot ISM prices paid and a firm USD tone. The late-NY bounce stalled at 0.8325, near the 38.2% fib of the 0.8382–0.8292 drop and below the 0.8359 NY range top, and price has slipped back to 0.8306 under both EMAs with ATR(14) near 14 pips.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83248, 0.83332, 0.83592
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8325 (38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.8333 london low back in play
A move back above the 0.8359 ny range top would erase the NY breakdown
Failure to hold the 0.8300 psych level exposes the 0.8292 session low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Fed speakers Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could reprice hike odds within the next few bars
US payrolls Fri 12:30 UTC are the next major risk for this read
NY breakdown to 0.8292, higher lows since, capped near 38.2% fib.
Rejection at the 0.8382 London-open high set the tone. The NY-session slide through the 0.8333 london low and the 0.8347 asian low ran to a 0.8292 day low as the slide accelerated around the ISM headline miss. The bounce has printed higher lows but is stalling at the 0.8325 bounce high, near the 38.2% retracement and just under ema20 (~0.8324).
Support: 0.83141, 0.8300, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83248, 0.83331, 0.83469
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8325 bounce high opens a retest of the 0.8333 london low and the 50% fib
Loss of the 0.8314 pullback low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 0.8300 psych level and 0.8292 day low back in play
Recovery back above the 0.8347 asian low would neutralise the NY breakdown
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams/Cook) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.8382; post-drop base 0.8292–0.8325.
USD/CHF reversed from the 0.8382 high set around Swiss CPI. It broke below the Asian low at 0.8347 in London, then the NY slide accelerated around the ISM headline miss to a session low at 0.8292, holding just under the 0.8300 psych level, despite the broader firm-USD backdrop. The after-London-close bounce stalled at 0.8325 near the 50% fib retrace of the NY slide, with RSI(14) at 39 and price under EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8292
Resistance: 0.8325, 0.8333, 0.8347
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8325 bounce high and the 0.8333 london low breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 0.8300 psych exposes the 0.8292 session low and extends the lower-low chain
Lower highs trendline from 0.8372 caps price unless reclaimed; the asian low at 0.8347 sits above it
Fed speakers Jefferson 17:30, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read; US payrolls Fri 12:30 UTC
NY breakdown below Asian range, higher lows off 0.8292.
USDCHF broke below the 0.8347–0.8382 Asian range during NY hours. The slide coincided with the ISM headline miss and ran to a 0.8292 session low. Rising lows since then have lifted price through the 0.8320 prior cap to test ema20 near 0.8325, with the 0.8333 london low lining up with the 61.8% of the NY drop fib.
Support: 0.8320, 0.82994, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83331, 0.83469
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.8320 prior cap reopens the 0.8299 higher low and the 0.8292 session low
Acceptance above the 0.8333 london low (61.8% of the NY drop fib) extends the retracement toward the 0.8347 asian low
A break of the rising lows trendline from 0.8292 ends the rebound structure
Fed's Jefferson at 17:30 UTC, then Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30), could shift this read; NFP is due Fri 12:30 UTC
Range break lower, basing 0.8292–0.8317 after London close.
The 0.8347–0.8372 day range gave way in NY hours. Price sliced through the 0.8333 london low and hit a 0.8292 session low around the ISM window, where the headline missed. Since London close it is ranging 0.8292–0.8317 around 0.8300 psych, with RSI(14) near 33. The bounce has stalled at the 0.8317 bounce high, short of the 38.2% fib (~0.8323) of the 0.8372 swing high to 0.8292 drop.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8292
Resistance: 0.8317, 0.8333, 0.8372
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8292 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Failure to hold 0.8300 psych exposes the session low
Acceptance above the 0.8317 bounce high and the 38.2% fib reopens the 0.8333 london low (ex-support)
Recovery through 0.8333 back toward the 0.8372 swing high would negate the breakdown read
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), then Bowman and Williams/Cook later in NY hours could shift this read; NFP due Fri 12:30 UTC
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at 0.8300 · RSI 31 · price 0.83013
NY broke the London low; post-flush 0.8300–0.8318 band.
NY broke below the 0.8333 London low around the US ISM release, which missed on the headline. The slide reached a session low at 0.8292 before stalling at the 0.8300 round number. Since London close, bounces have capped at the 38.2% fib near 0.8318, leaving a tight band with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83176, 0.83331
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8292 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Acceptance above the 38.2% fib at 0.8318 and back over the 0.8333 london low would undo the breakdown read
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could shift hike pricing this evening
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the next high-impact catalyst
16:02 UTC
Downtrend, early bounce from lows · RSI 32 · price 0.83125
Day range broken lower in NY, pause above 0.8300.
USD/CHF broke below the 0.8333–0.8382 day range during NY hours. It slid about 67 pips around the 14:00 UTC ISM headline miss to a 0.8292 session low, and buyers stepped in near the 0.8300 round number. The bounce is capped at the 0.8314 bounce high, under the 38.2% fib at 0.8318, with the London low at 0.8333 (61.8%) and the Asian low at 0.8347 above.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83142, 0.83331, 0.83469
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8333 london low (61.8% fib) negates the range break
Break of the 0.8300 round number exposes the 0.8292 session low
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could materially shift this read; NFP Fri 12:30 UTC
0.8347–0.8372 London range broken lower; base forming 0.8292–0.8320.
USDCHF dropped out of the 0.8347–0.8372 range during NY hours. The slide accelerated around the 14:00 UTC ISM release (headline miss at 54.5), cut through the 0.8333 london low and printed a 0.8292 ny low, at odds with the broader USD-bid backdrop. Price is now holding just above the 0.8300 round number with RSI(14) recovering from ~24 to 32, capped by the 0.8320 bounce high near the 38.2% fib of the drop.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8292
Resistance: 0.8320, 0.8333
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8320 bounce high and 38.2% fib opens a retest of the 0.8333 london low, which aligns with the 61.8% fib
Failure to hold the 0.8300 round number and a break of the 0.8292 ny low extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), then Bowman and Williams/Cook later today, could materially shift this read; NFP is Fri 12:30 UTC
NY range break to lower lows, shallow base above 0.8300.
Early in the NY session, price broke the 0.8347 range floor and the 0.8333 London low around the ISM window. The ~67-pip slide printed a 0.8292 session low, despite a USD-firm digest. Price is now basing just above the 0.8300 psych handle with RSI(14) near 32, and the 0.8320 bounce high near the 38.2% fib is capping the rebound.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83197, 0.83332, 0.83467
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.8333 london low (61.8% fib of the NY drop) would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure at 0.8300 psych and a break of the 0.8292 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Range floor at 0.8347 now sits overhead as former support
Fed speakers Jefferson 17:30 UTC, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 could materially shift this read
Broke midday range and London low, lower highs since 0.8372.
NY session broke the 0.8347–0.8363 midday range and the 0.8333 London low. The ~65-pip leg into a 0.8292 session low coincided with the ISM release. The bounce stalled at the 0.8320 rebound high, near the 38.2% of the selloff fib, and price is now pinned at the 0.8300 psych with RSI(14) ~27.
Support: 0.8292, 0.8270
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8320, 0.8333
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8292 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.8270 uob support
M15 close back above the 0.8320 rebound high and 0.8333 london low reclaims the broken range
Lower-highs trendline from 0.8372 has capped every rebound since late London
Fed's Jefferson at 17:30 UTC, then Bowman, Williams and Cook, could materially shift this read
Range break below 0.8347–0.8372 day range; lower highs since 0.8372.
NY session broke the 0.8347 range low and the 0.8333 London low, a roughly 67-pip slide into 0.8292 around the ISM headline miss, despite firm claims. Price is back above the 0.8300 psych level with RSI(14) near 25. The 61.8% retrace of the sell-off sits at the London low, under a lower-high line off 0.8372.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83331, 0.83467
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8300 psych level exposes the 0.8292 session low
Recovery above the 0.8333 London low (61.8% fib) undercuts the breakdown read
Price back inside the range above the 0.8347 range low would mark the break as false
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could materially shift this read; NFP due Friday
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive NY selloff · RSI 27 · price 0.83086
Lower low below London low, 24h range broken to downside.
NY session broke the 0.8333 London low and extended around the ISM headline miss to a session low at 0.8307. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 27. The 38.2% level of the 0.8372–0.8307 selloff fib lines up with the 0.8333 London low, and the 0.8347 Asian low is the next layer above.
Support: 0.83071, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83331, 0.83469
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8333 london low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8307 session low exposes the 0.8300 psych level
Supply capping at the 0.8347 asian low on any bounce keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could materially shift this read
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the next major volatility event
Lower highs from 0.8382, 0.8333 morning low broken in NY.
USD/CHF has made lower highs since the 0.8382 London-open high. In the first hour of NY it broke the 0.8333 morning low, and the ISM headline miss drove a 36-pip bar to a 0.8307 session low. RSI(14) is near 25 after the flush, and 0.8333 sits overhead where the lower-highs trendline and the 38.2% fib converge.
Support: 0.83071, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83332, 0.83484
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8333 morning low and the lower-highs trendline would invalidate the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 0.8307 session low exposes 0.8300 psych
Rebound above the 0.8348 ism high would put the move back inside the London range
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could materially shift this read
Broke below the 0.8347–0.8359 range, testing the session low.
Price spent the day contained by a line of lower highs from the 0.8372 swing high, then a 21-pip bar into the ISM/Waller window broke the 0.8347–0.8359 range and stalled at 0.8333, matching the London session low. It now trades below both EMAs and the Asian low, with RSI(14) near 33, even as the USD-bid backdrop holds.
Support: 0.83332, 0.8330
Resistance: 0.83468, 0.83592, 0.83723
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8333 session low opens the 0.8300 psych level
M15 close back above the 0.8347 Asian low returns price to the prior range
Close above the 0.8359 range top and the lower-highs line invalidates the downtrend read
ISM/Waller reaction this hour, then Fed speakers 17:30–19:30 UTC, could shift this read
13:46 UTC
Sideways after London reversal, lower highs · RSI 45 · price 0.83525
Lower highs from 0.8372 compressing into 0.8347–0.8359 band.
The 16-month day high at 0.8382 was rejected just before London. Price then cut through the Asian low to the London low at 0.8333 before recovering to the 0.8372 swing high. Since then, lower highs have squeezed the pair into a 0.8347 swing low to 0.8359 range top band in early NY, right on the 50% retrace, with the market holding ahead of ISM.
Support: 0.8347, 0.8333
Resistance: 0.8359, 0.8372, 0.8382
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, about 15 min out, can break the compression in either direction
M15 close below the 0.8347 swing low exposes the 0.8333 london low
M15 close above the 0.8359 range top and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.8372 swing high and the 0.8382 day high
13:31 UTC
Sideways after two-way London swing · RSI 46 · price 0.83554
Lower highs compressing into 0.8347–0.8360 range.
London spiked to the 0.8382 london high around Swiss CPI, then reversed through the asian low to 0.8333 before recovering, a two-sided false break. The rebound stalled at the 0.8372 midday high, and early NY is compressing under a descending lower-high line near the 50% fib of the London drop, with the 0.8347–0.8360 range intact into ISM despite the firm USD tone.
Support: 0.8347, 0.8333
Resistance: 0.8360, 0.8372, 0.8382
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could break the compression either way
M15 close above the 0.8360 lower high breaks the descending line and exposes the 0.8372 midday high
Failure to hold the 0.8347 asian low reopens the 0.8333 london low
13:17 UTC
Sideways after rejected spike, range contracting · RSI 46 · price 0.8357
Lower highs vs higher lows off the London low, tightening into NY.
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC spiked price to the 0.8382 cpi high, and London reversed it to the 0.8333 London low. Since then, the 0.8372 London high and 0.8364 lower high sit above a 0.8347 higher low, compressing early-NY price into a consolidation between converging lower highs and higher lows. Price is parked at the 50% retrace of the CPI drop and pinned to EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 0.8347, 0.8333
Resistance: 0.8364, 0.8372, 0.8382
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing, Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 UTC, about 45 minutes out, could break the consolidation either side
M15 close above the 0.8364 lower high breaks the lower-high chain, with the 0.8372 London high and 0.8382 cpi high above
Failure to hold the 0.8347 higher low reopens the 0.8333 London low
13:03 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since the CPI spike · RSI 45 · price 0.83542
Contracting range back inside the Asian range.
The cpi spike to 0.8382 at the in-line Swiss print was rejected, and London flushed to the 0.8333 london low before rebounding to the 0.8372 swing high. Price is now coiling near 0.8354, around the 50% fib of that London leg, under a lower-highs line (0.8372, then the 0.8364 lower high), with the 0.8347 swing low at the Asian low holding into the London-NY transition. RSI(14) is near 45, below both EMAs.
Support: 0.83467, 0.83331
Resistance: 0.83635, 0.83723, 0.83824
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 0.8347 swing low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.8333 london low
An M15 close above the lower-highs line and the 0.8364 lower high reopens the 0.8372 swing high and the 0.8382 cpi spike
12:46 UTC
Range-bound, lower highs since London · RSI 46 · price 0.83545
Compression between 0.8347 and 0.8364 after London reversal.
The in-line Swiss CPI cpi spike to 0.8382 reversed hard into London, sweeping the Asian low to a London low of 0.8333. The rebound stalled at a London high of 0.8372, and lower highs at 0.8364 and 0.8358 have since compressed price above the 0.8347 swing low. The pair now sits near the 50% retracement of the London leg, slightly under both EMAs, heading into NY with US yields still the main USD driver.
Support: 0.83467, 0.83331
Resistance: 0.83635, 0.83723, 0.83824
What it said to watch
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC), then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could break the compression either way
M15 close above the lower highs trendline and 0.8364 lower high opens the London high at 0.8372
Failure to hold the 0.8347 swing low exposes the 0.8333 London low and the bottom of the London leg
Reclaim of the 0.8382 cpi spike high would put the post-CPI reversal fully back
12:32 UTC
Intraday range, lower highs since London open · RSI 48 · price 0.83552
Lower highs 0.8382/0.8372/0.8364 over a flat 0.8347 base.
The yield-driven spike high at 0.8382 around Swiss CPI was rejected at London open, with price falling to the London low at 0.8333 before printing lower highs at the 0.8372 swing high and 0.8364. Price is now pinned near 0.8355, just under the EMA20/50 cluster at 0.8357. The Asian low at 0.8347 has held, near the 61.8% of the London leg, with RSI flat near 48.
Support: 0.8347, 0.8333
Resistance: 0.8364, 0.8372, 0.8382
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8347 asian low exposes the 0.8333 london low
Close above the 0.8364 lower high breaks the lower-highs line, with the 0.8372 swing high next
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, now) and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:16 UTC
Range after failed high, lower highs · RSI 46 · price 0.83515
The in-line Swiss CPI print lifted the pair to a 16-month day high at 0.8382 into London open. The move reversed hard to the 0.8333 london low, and the rebound stalled at 0.8372 (the swing high, near the 78.6% fib), then at 0.8364 (a lower high at the 61.8% fib). Price is now pressing the 0.8347 asian low for a second time this session, below both EMAs, ahead of US claims.
Support: 0.83468, 0.83331
Resistance: 0.83635, 0.83723, 0.83824
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.8347 asian low exposes the 0.8333 london low
M15 close above the 0.8364 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the 0.8372 swing high back into focus
Reclaim of the 0.8382 day high would cancel the false-break read
12:02 UTC
Intraday range, drifting lower off a lower high · RSI 45 · price 0.8350
Post-CPI spike reversal; lower high at 0.8372, price back near the Asian low.
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC lifted the pair to a spike high at 0.8382, but the move was rejected and London ran through both ends of the Asian range down to 0.8333. The recovery capped at a lower high of 0.8372 along the descending trendline. Price now sits at 0.8350 near the asian low, inside the 50–61.8% retrace of the London low-to-0.8372 leg, with RSI(14) at 45 and price below both EMAs at the London-NY transition.
Support: 0.8347, 0.8333
Resistance: 0.8364, 0.8372, 0.8382
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.8347 asian low exposes the 0.8333 london low
Reclaiming the 0.8364 minor high and then the 0.8372 lower high breaks the descending trendline
Acceptance above the 0.8382 spike high negates the CPI rejection
Lower highs from 0.8382 compressing onto 50% retracement of London rebound.
The Swiss CPI spike to 0.8382 was rejected into London open, sweeping the Asian range down to 0.8333 before rebounding to 0.8372. Lower highs since then (0.8364) have pressed price onto the 50% fib at 0.8353, with RSI(14) near 46 and price below both EMAs ahead of US data.
Support: 0.83527, 0.83455, 0.83331
Resistance: 0.83635, 0.83723, 0.83824
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.8352 (50% fib) exposes the 0.8346 swing low and the 61.8% retracement at 0.8348
Failure to hold the 0.8333 london low confirms a lower-low and fully unwinds the CPI spike
Close above the 0.8364 lower high breaks the descending trendline, with the 0.8372 swing high next
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:31 UTC
Choppy, two-way after a CPI whipsaw · RSI 55 · price 0.83604
Contracting range: higher lows off the London low, lower high at 0.83635.
Swiss CPI came in line and the pair spiked to 0.83824 above the Asian range. That move fully reversed into the London open, down to 0.83331, before recovering to the 0.83723 London high. Price is now compressing near the EMAs between the 0.83525 swing low, which sits at the 50% retracement of the London leg, and a 0.83635 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 0.83525, 0.83331
Resistance: 0.83635, 0.83723, 0.83824
What it said to watch
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
A break below the 0.83525 swing low and the 50% fib exposes the 0.83331 London low
A close above the 0.83635 lower high reopens the 0.83723 London high and the 0.83824 CPI spike high
11:16 UTC
Neutral, compressing after two-way London swings · RSI 51 · price 0.83611
Lower high / higher low contraction inside the 0.8333–0.8382 day range.
The in-line Swiss CPI spike to the 0.8382 cpi high was rejected at London open. Price then swept the asian low at 0.8347 to the 0.8333 london low and was bought straight back. Since then a lower high at 0.8372 and a higher low at 0.8352 have formed, and price sits mid-range at 0.8361 with RSI(14) flat near 51 heading into NY.
Support: 0.83525, 0.83469, 0.83331
Resistance: 0.83723, 0.83824
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8372 lower high breaks the contracting range and puts the 0.8382 cpi high back in focus
Failure to hold the 0.8352 higher low reopens the asian low at 0.8347
A break of the 0.8333 london low would turn the morning sweep into a lower-low sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Two-way chop, no directional control · RSI 52 · price 0.8358
Lower high 0.8372 and higher low 0.8353 inside the 0.8333–0.8382 session range.
The 06:30 UTC Swiss CPI spike to 0.8382 reversed fully. Price swept below the Asian low to a 0.8333 session low before London recovered to a 0.8372 lower high. It is now holding a 0.8353 higher low at the 50% retracement of that recovery, flat on EMA20/50 with RSI neutral ahead of NY.
Support: 0.8353, 0.8333
Resistance: 0.8372, 0.8382
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8353 higher low breaks the recovery trendline and exposes the 0.8333 session low
Close above the 0.8372 lower high reopens the 0.8382 cpi spike high
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Fed's Waller at 14:00 UTC, could break the session range either side
10:46 UTC
Choppy, two-way after London flush · RSI 44 · price 0.83569
Wide London range 0.8333–0.8382, price mid-range back inside Asian range.
In-line Swiss CPI spiked the pair to a 0.8382 session high around London open, then it was rejected in a 49-pip flush to the 0.8333 London low. The rebound stalled at the 0.8372 swing high, and price has slipped back to 0.8357 inside the Asian range. The 0.8352 swing low sits near the 50% fib of the London rebound, with RSI(14) neutral near 44.
Support: 0.83525, 0.83331, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83723, 0.83824
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8352 swing low exposes the 0.8333 London low; failure there opens the 0.8321 prior low from Wednesday's NY session
M15 close above the 0.8372 swing high puts the 0.8382 session high back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Fed's Waller at 14:00 UTC, could break the London range either way
Both-sided sweep of Asian range, mid-range rotation.
The 06:30 UTC Swiss CPI print spiked price above the 0.8368 asian high to a 0.8382 session high. That false break unwound by early London into a sweep under the asian low to a 0.8333 session low. The recovery stalled at a 0.8372 lower high, and price now sits near the 50% recovery fib around 0.8353, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 0.8347, 0.8333
Resistance: 0.8368, 0.8372, 0.8382
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8347 asian low reopens the 0.8333 session low
M15 close above the 0.8372 lower high breaks the lower highs trendline off 0.8382
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Recovering off London low, capped near 0.8372 · RSI 50 · price 0.83641
HH/HL chain back inside Asian range after failed CPI spike.
The spike above the Asian high on the in-line Swiss CPI print tagged a 0.8382 session high, near the 16-month CHF low. It failed, and price unwound to a 0.8333 London low after London open. Since then it has rebuilt a higher-low chain and retraced about 63% of the drop, sitting just under the 0.8368 Asian high after a rejection at 0.8372. RSI(14) is neutral near 50, with ATR around 10 pips.
Support: 0.83455, 0.83331
Resistance: 0.83676, 0.83723, 0.83824
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8372 rejection reopens the 0.8382 session high
Loss of the 0.8346 higher low breaks the recovery and exposes the 0.8333 London low
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The Swiss CPI spike to 0.8382 faded into a 49-pip London-open flush to 0.8333, below the Asian low at 0.8347, before a V-shaped recovery carried price back above the Asian high at 0.8368. That move retraces about 76% of the drop and is in line with the yields-led USD bid. RSI(14) is neutral near 56, with higher lows stacking along the recovery trendline from the London low.
Support: 0.8368, 0.8345, 0.8333
Resistance: 0.8376, 0.8382
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the asian high at 0.8368 undercuts the recovery; losing the 0.8345 higher low breaks the recovery trendline
A close above the 0.8376 lower high exposes the 0.8382 cpi spike high; rejection there leaves a range back toward the 0.8333 london low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
09:46 UTC
Recovering from London sell-off, higher lows · RSI 50 · price 0.83622
Higher-low chain off 0.8333, back inside Asian range.
The in-line Swiss CPI print pushed price through the 0.8368 Asian high to a 0.8382 session high, a false break that London open reversed to the 0.8333 London low. Since then a higher-low line has lifted price back to the 61.8% fib near 0.8364, with RSI(14) around 50 and price just above EMA20/50 near 0.8359.
Support: 0.83517, 0.83455, 0.83331
Resistance: 0.83636, 0.83676, 0.83824
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 61.8% fib near 0.8364 keeps the London sell-off as the dominant swing
M15 close above the 0.8368 asian high reopens the 0.8382 session high
Break of the 0.8352 higher low, then the 0.8346 swing low, breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 0.8333 london low
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Volatile two-way, recovering from London flush · RSI 49 · price 0.83602
London false break above the Asian high, then a sweep below the Asian low; now back inside the Asian range.
London spiked to a 0.8382 session high around the in-line Swiss CPI. The move then reversed hard through the 0.8347 Asian low to a 0.8333 London low, a 49-pip swing. Price has since recovered rising lows back to 0.8360, inside the Asian range, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the drop and sitting on EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 0.8347, 0.8333
Resistance: 0.8368, 0.8382
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8368 Asian high reclaims the range top and puts the 0.8382 session high back in focus
Failure back below the 0.8347 Asian low, with a break of the recovery lows trendline, reopens the 0.8333 London low
Rejection at the 61.8% fib near 0.8364 keeps the London drop as the dominant swing
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg 14:00 UTC can materially shift this read during NY hours
Spike high rejected, Asian low swept and reclaimed.
The 06:30 UTC Swiss CPI spike to the 0.8382 spike high was fully rejected into the London open. Price then broke below the 0.8347 Asian low to a 0.8333 session low before reclaiming it, a false break. The rebound is capped at the 0.8357 rebound high, just under the 50% fib of the drop, with price back inside the Asian range and below both EMAs.
Support: 0.8347, 0.8333, 0.8321
Resistance: 0.8357, 0.8368, 0.8382
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8357 rebound high and the 50% fib opens a retest of the 0.8368 Asian high
Failure back below the 0.8347 Asian low puts the 0.8333 session low and the 0.8321 prior low in play
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg with Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC, plus Waller, could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Choppy, recovering from London sell-off · RSI 46 · price 0.8355
False break above Asian high, sweep below Asian low, back inside range.
The in-line Swiss CPI at the London open drove a spike to 0.8382, the CPI spike high, but price reversed 49 pips and swept below the Asian low to the 0.8333 London low. Price has since recovered back inside the Asian range to 0.8355 and is stalling just under the 50% fib at 0.8358. RSI(14) sits near 46 and ATR is about 9 pips.
Support: 0.8347, 0.8333, 0.8321
Resistance: 0.8358, 0.8368, 0.8382
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib at 0.8358 opens a retest of the 0.8368 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.8347 Asian low puts the 0.8333 London low back in play; a break there exposes yesterday's 0.8321 PCE low
A move back through the 0.8382 CPI spike high would negate the false break read
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg/Prices Paid 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Intraday pullback, bouncing off London low · RSI 46 · price 0.83545
False break above Asian high, flush to 0.8333, partial recovery.
The in-line Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC pushed price above the Asian high to a 0.8382 CPI high. London open reversed the move by 49 pips to a 0.8333 London low, briefly through the 0.8347 Asian low. Price has reclaimed the Asian low and sits at 0.8355, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the drop and just under EMA20/50, back inside the 0.8347–0.8368 Asian range.
Support: 0.8347, 0.8333, 0.8321
Resistance: 0.8358, 0.8368, 0.8382
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib at 0.8358 puts the 0.8368 Asian high back in play, with the 0.8382 CPI high above
Failure to hold the 0.8347 Asian low reopens the 0.8333 London low, then yesterday's 0.8321 PCE low
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg PMI plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend after London reversal · RSI 36 · price 0.83422
Failed push above Asian range, then range break lower with lower highs.
The early-London spike above the Asian range to the 0.8382 session high, during the Swiss CPI hour, failed. Price then slid 49 pips through the Asian low at 0.8347 to a 0.8333 session low. The bounce stalled at 0.8353, the bounce high at the 38.2% of the London drop fib, leaving lower highs below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 36 and ATR around 9 pips.
Support: 0.83331, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.8347, 0.83527, 0.83824
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 0.8347 would weaken the range-break read; 0.8353 bounce high caps above
Failure to hold the 0.8333 session low opens yesterday's prior low at 0.8321 (post-PCE low)
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Mfg PMI and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 0.8382 session high would negate the false-break read
False break above Asian high, then range break below Asian low.
The in-line Swiss CPI spike to the 0.8382 cpi high (06:30 UTC) was rejected, and the London open drove a 49-pip slide through the Asian range (0.8347–0.8370) to a 0.8333 session low near yesterday's NY lows. Price is now pressing the asian low from below at 0.8345, RSI(14) ~37, with ATR(14) expanded to ~8 pips.
Support: 0.83331, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.8347, 0.83698, 0.83824
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8347 asian low reopens the 38.2–50% fib zone at 0.8352–0.8358
Failure to hold the 0.8333 session low exposes yesterday's 0.8321 pce low
Asian high at 0.8370 caps any recovery; only a close above the 0.8382 cpi high negates the false break
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg/Waller 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
False break above Asian high, then Asian range broken to the downside.
The in-line Swiss CPI spike to 0.8382 was a false break of the 0.8368 Asian high. The London selloff then cut 47 pips through the 0.8347 Asian low to a 0.8335 session low, with RSI(14) near 34. Below sit the 0.8330 round number and yesterday's 0.8321 PCE low.
Support: 0.83353, 0.8330, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83469, 0.83676, 0.83824
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8330 round number exposes the 0.8321 PCE low
Recovery back above the 0.8347 Asian low negates the range break; 50% of the London selloff fib sits at 0.8359
Asian high at 0.8368 and the 0.8382 CPI spike mark the session's upper bounds
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg with Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Intraday reversal lower after a failed push to fresh highs · RSI 36 · price 0.83468
London-open false break above the Asian high, now back at the Asian range low.
In-line Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC sparked a spike to 0.8382 (london high) above the 0.8367 asian high that failed, and the 07:30 bar dropped 20 pips to the 0.8347 asian low, which sits just above the fib 61.8 of the post-PCE rally at 0.8344. RSI(14) is at 36 with ATR(14) near 6 pips, and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 0.8347, 0.8344, 0.8339
Resistance: 0.8355, 0.8367, 0.8382
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8347 asian low and the 0.8344 fib 61.8 opens the 0.8339 ny swing low
Recovery above the 0.8355 pivot and the 0.8367 asian high would negate the false-break read; 0.8382 london high caps the session
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) alongside Waller could materially shift this read
Asian higher-low chain intact; post-spike lower highs early London.
In-line Swiss CPI near London open spiked USDCHF to the 0.8382 cpi spike high, which was rejected. Price is now retesting the 0.8366 asian high, sitting between the 38.2% and 50% levels of the asian rally fib. The asian HL trendline from 0.8347 is still intact, while post-spike bars are printing a lower high near 0.8376, and RSI(14) is neutral at 56.
Support: 0.8366, 0.8361, 0.8347
Resistance: 0.8376, 0.8382
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8361 cpi base breaks the asian HL trendline and the 61.8% asian rally fib
Reclaim of the 0.8376 lower high reopens the 0.8382 cpi spike high
Loss of the 0.8347 asian low unwinds the whole overnight leg
US Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM and Waller 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 0.8347; Asian range high broken and retested.
The in-line Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC sparked a spike through the 0.8367 Asian high, the 16-month high, to a session high at 0.8382, but the wick was rejected. The pullback held a retest of the Asian high at 0.8366 ahead of London open. Rising lows from the 0.8347 Asia-session low remain intact, with a lower high at 0.8376 capping the bounce for now. RSI(14) is near 63 and ATR(14) is about 5 pips.
Support: 0.83667, 0.83614, 0.83565
Resistance: 0.8376, 0.83824
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8367 Asian high returns price to the Asian range and turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.8361 swing low and the rising lows line breaks the higher-low chain from 0.8347
Close above the 0.8376 lower high exposes a retest of the 0.8382 session high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid and Fed's Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off 0.8347; break of Asian high, now retesting it.
Pair cleared the 0.8347–0.8368 Asian range into the London open, and the in-line Swiss CPI bar spiked to 0.8382 before a sharp rejection. Price is back at 0.8370, retesting the Asian high near the 38.2% fib of the 0.8347–0.8382 leg. The rising trendline and the 0.8361 swing low sit underneath, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 60 after the spike.
Support: 0.83676, 0.83614, 0.83469
Resistance: 0.8376, 0.83824
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8368 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.8361 swing low and rising trendline breaks the HL chain; asian low at 0.8347 next
Reclaim of the 0.8376 lower high reopens the 0.8382 cpi spike high
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid and Fed's Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Uptrend, extended after spike · RSI 64 · price 0.83747
Asian range high broken, higher-low chain intact.
Swiss CPI landed in line at 06:30 GMT and USD/CHF cleared the asian high at 0.8368. The CPI spike to 0.8382 drew an immediate rejection, and price is holding near 0.8375 into London open. Asia built a higher-low chain off the 0.8347 asian low along the rising trendline, with firm USD backdrop; RSI(14) ~64 is not stretched.
Support: 0.8368, 0.8362, 0.8347
Resistance: 0.8382, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8368 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Close above the 0.8382 cpi spike high opens the 0.8400 round number
Loss of the rising trendline and the 0.8362 prior high (Sep 30 high) breaks the Asia higher-low chain; the 50% fib sits near 0.8365
US Jobless Claims 12:30 GMT, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 GMT, could materially shift this read during NY hours
HL chain from 0.8347 Asian low; Asian high broken pre-London.
The PCE dip to 0.8321 was fully reversed as USD firmed. Asia then built higher lows off the 0.8347 Asian low along the rising trendline, and the Swiss CPI bar pushed through the 0.8368 Asian high to a session high at 0.8372, with RSI(14) at 64 and not stretched.
Support: 0.83676, 0.83614, 0.83469
Resistance: 0.83716, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8368 Asian high marks the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold 0.8361 prior high (Sep 30 NY high / 06:00 swing low) breaks the rising trendline and HL chain; 61.8% fib sits at 0.8356
Acceptance above the 0.8372 session high leaves the 0.8400 round number as the next reference
US Jobless Claims 12:30 GMT, then ISM Manufacturing and Fed's Waller at 14:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain through Asia, session highs grinding up in small steps.
Asia climbed from the 0.8347 Asian low on a firm USD and cleared yesterday's 0.8362 prior high. Dips since have held that prior high and the Asia trendline, and price has reached a 0.8368 session high. New highs are coming in smaller steps with RSI(14) near 56, ahead of Swiss CPI just before the London open.
Support: 0.83615, 0.83565, 0.83469
Resistance: 0.83676, 0.8370
What it said to watch
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) could materially shift this read; a hot print risks a CHF squeeze
M15 close below the 0.8361 prior high and Asia trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.8357 swing low and the 38.2–61.8% asia leg fib zone
Acceptance above the 0.8368 session high opens the 0.8370 round number
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are the next USD-side risk in this session
Asia higher-low chain from 0.8347, compressing just under the Asian high pre-London.
Asia session lifted USD/CHF through yesterday's NY high near 0.8362 and the 0.8358 16-month high. The Asian high printed at 0.8368 on a chain of higher lows along the Asia trendline from the 0.8347 Asian low. Price is now compressing just under that high. RSI(14) is near 56 and ATR(14) is only about 3.6 pips, with the USD holding firm as strong GDP and ADP data offset yesterday's soft PCE.
Support: 0.83629, 0.83565, 0.83469
Resistance: 0.83676, 0.8370
What it said to watch
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) could break the 0.8347–0.8368 Asian range from either side
M15 close below the 0.8363 swing low and the Asia trendline breaks the higher-low chain; the 0.8357 higher low near 50% of the Asia leg fib then comes into focus
Acceptance above the 0.8368 Asian high opens the 0.8370 round number
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
Asia session cleared the 0.8362 NY high, extending the recovery from yesterday's 0.8321 spike low as strong GDP and Chicago PMI offset the soft PCE. Higher lows at the 0.8347 Asia low and the 0.8357 swing low hold the rising trendline. Price is compressing just under the 0.8368 Asia high ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR around 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.83617, 0.83565, 0.83469
Resistance: 0.83676
What it said to watch
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) could materially shift this read; a hot print is the main CHF-bid risk
M15 close back below the 0.8362 ny high turns the Asia breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8357 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.8347 asia low and the fib base
Acceptance above the 0.8368 asia high extends the higher-high sequence
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC are the larger USD driver later in the day
HH/HL chain through Asia, price pressing the Asian high.
The post-PCE dip to 0.8321 was fully reversed on strong US growth beats. The Asian rally from the 0.8347 asian low cleared the 0.8361 ny high, printed a higher low at 0.8357 and is now testing the 0.8368 asian high late in the Asia session with RSI(14) near 62. Price is trading above the 0.8350–0.8358 area the digest cites as the 16-month high, and both EMAs sit below.
Support: 0.83615, 0.83565, 0.83469
Resistance: 0.83676, 0.8370
What it said to watch
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y): a hot print could break the Asian structure
An M15 close above the 0.8368 asian high and the 0.8370 round number extends the HH chain into London
A break of the 0.8357 higher low and the trendline would undo the HH/HL sequence
The ny high at 0.8361 is the first area to watch for a retest on any pullback
ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC, with Waller in the same slot, could materially shift this read
Asia session climbed from the 0.8347 Asian low through yesterday's 0.8362 NY prior high to a session high at 0.8368. Higher lows at 0.8357 and along the rising Asia trendline keep the chain intact, and RSI(14) at ~62 is not stretched. The move extends the USD recovery after GDP and ADP beats offset yesterday's soft PCE dip to 0.8321.
Support: 0.83617, 0.83565, 0.83469
Resistance: 0.83676, 0.8370
What it said to watch
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) could materially shift this read ahead of London open
Slip back below the 0.8362 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8357 swing low, near 50% of the Asia leg, breaks the HL chain and the Asia trendline
M15 close above the 0.8370 round number extends the session high run
Higher-low chain through Asia; Asian high at window top.
Late Asia session: USDCHF has cleared the 0.8362 prior high and set a 0.8367 Asian high, the top of this window. That extends the recovery from the post-PCE 0.8321 low as US growth beats and Kashkari's hawkish guidance offset the soft inflation print. Higher lows at the 0.8347 Asian low and the 0.8357 swing low define a rising trendline, with RSI(14) near 62 and ATR around 4 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.8362, 0.83565, 0.83469
Resistance: 0.83669, 0.8400
What it said to watch
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y, 0% m/m) lands into London open and could materially shift this read
An M15 close back below the 0.8362 prior high would turn the Asian breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.8357 swing low breaks the trendline and the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.8347 Asian low
A deeper pullback toward 0.8349, the 38.2% level of the post-PCE fib, would test the Asian low area
Sustained trade above the 0.8367 Asian high opens the path toward the 0.8400 round number
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM (14:00 UTC) are the next USD tests
Asia HL chain from 0.8347, marginal HHs capped near 0.8367.
Asia session turned up from the 0.8347 asian low on a firm USD after Kashkari's hawkish guidance. It has printed three marginal highs at 0.8365–0.8367, above the 0.8358 high cited in the digest, with the 0.8357 swing low holding near the fib 50% and the NY prior high at 0.8362 now underneath price. Ranges are tight with ATR(14) near 4 pips, and RSI(14) at 62 is not stretched.
Support: 0.83617, 0.83565, 0.83469
Resistance: 0.83669
What it said to watch
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) could materially shift this read in the London open
M15 close above the 0.8367 session high extends the HH chain
Close back below the 0.8362 prior high puts the 0.8357 swing low and fib 50% in play
Failure to hold the 0.8357 swing low breaks the Asia trendline support and the higher-low chain
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC are the next USD event risk
With the USD firm after Kashkari's hawkish guidance, the Asia session pushed through the prior NY high at 0.83617. It printed a session high at 0.83669, with micro higher lows at 0.83469 (asian low) and 0.83565 holding the advance. Highs at 0.83654–0.83669 are stacking with shrinking extension and RSI(14) near 66, leaving price compressed just under the 0.8370 round number.
Support: 0.83617, 0.83565, 0.83469
Resistance: 0.83669, 0.8370
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.83565 higher low breaks the Asian HH/HL chain and the trendline off the asian low
A close back under the 0.83617 prior high turns the breakout into a false break; the 38.2% fib of the Asian leg sits near 0.8359
Acceptance above the 0.83669 session high opens the 0.8370 round number
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y, 0.0% m/m) could materially shift this read
HL chain from the 0.8321 NY low; Asia extended to a new session high, then a shallow pullback.
Wednesday's NY rally off the 0.8321 post-data low, driven by US growth beats that outweighed the soft PCE, carried into Asia. The pair printed a 0.8366 session high above the 0.8358 16-month mark. The Asia leg pullback held the 0.8357 swing low near its 50% retrace, keeping rising lows intact with RSI(14) near 61, warm but not stretched.
Support: 0.83565, 0.83469
Resistance: 0.83664, 0.8370
What it said to watch
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (~2h, f/c 1% y/y) could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 0.8357 swing low under pressure
M15 close above the 0.8366 session high extends the higher-high sequence toward the 0.8370 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8347 asian low breaks the rising lows chain
US ISM and Waller at 14:00 UTC are the larger driver later in the day
04:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from highs · RSI 58 · price 0.83577
Higher lows from 0.8321 pce low; Asia break of ny high fading.
USD recovered from the 0.8321 pce low as GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats offset Wednesday's soft PCE. Late in the Asia session the pair pushed through the 0.8362 ny high to 0.8366, but that asia high was rejected. Price has slipped back below the ny high toward the 50% fib of the Asian move, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.8354, 0.8347, 0.8321
Resistance: 0.8362, 0.8366
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8366 asia high resumes the higher-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.8354 61.8% fib exposes the 0.8347 asia low
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) could materially shift this read
US claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC are later-day volatility risks
Higher lows off post-PCE low; Asia broke NY high, now retesting it.
The post-PCE recovery from 0.8321 extended through the Asia session as USD held firm on the growth beats. Price broke the 0.8362 NY prior high and set a 0.8366 session high, then slipped back to retest the prior high. The higher-low chain from the 0.8347 Asia low is intact, with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR(14) at about 4 pips.
Support: 0.83617, 0.8355, 0.8347
Resistance: 0.83664, 0.8370
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8355 NY base returns price to the late-NY range and fails the prior-high retest
A break of the 0.8347 Asia low ends the higher-low chain and tests the PCE-low trendline
A close above the 0.8366 session high opens the 0.8370 round number
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC, then US claims at 12:30 and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the Asian low; prior NY high broken and retested.
The post-PCE dip to 0.8321 was fully reversed on the strong GDP/Chicago PMI data. In Asia the pair rallied off the 0.8347 asian low and broke the 0.8362 prior high to a 0.8366 session high. Dips since 02:00 UTC have held the 0.8360–0.8361 area as a retest. RSI(14) is near 63 and ATR is about 4 pips, so the move is orderly rather than stretched.
Support: 0.8361, 0.8357, 0.8347
Resistance: 0.83664, 0.8370
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8361 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the 0.8357 fib 50% of the asian rally
Failure to hold 0.8347, the asian low, would break the intraday higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 0.8366 session high puts the 0.8370 round number in play
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) could materially shift this read
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC are the main later risks
03:16 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating at highs · RSI 58 · price 0.83611
Higher lows since NY PCE low; Asia breakout above prior high now retesting.
The NY dip to 0.8321 on the soft PCE print was fully reversed as US growth beats kept USD firm. Asia session held 0.8347 and pushed through the 0.8361 prior high to an Asia high of 0.8365. Price is now holding that prior high on a retest in a tight 3-pip band, RSI(14) neutral near 58.
Support: 0.8361, 0.8354, 0.83469
Resistance: 0.83654, 0.8370
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8361 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
A pullback through the Asia rally fib 61.8 at 0.8354 weakens the retest read
Failure to hold the 0.8347 Asia low breaks the rising lows from the 0.8321 NY low
Acceptance above the 0.8365 Asia high opens the 0.8370 round number
Swiss CPI 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) and US ISM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near highs · RSI 59 · price 0.83619
Higher lows since the post-PCE low; Asia broke the prior NY high and is holding above it.
USDCHF has built higher lows from the 0.8321 post-PCE spike low, as strong US GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI outweighed the soft core print. Late in the Asia session, price ran from the 0.8347 Asian low to a 0.8365 session high, clearing the 0.8362 prior high from NY. It is now holding just above that prior high near 0.8360, with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR(14) around 4 pips.
Support: 0.8360, 0.83469
Resistance: 0.83654, 0.8370
What it said to watch
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) could materially shift this read around London open
An M15 close back below the 0.8360 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
A pullback beyond 61.8% of the Asian leg (~0.8354) weakens the retest read
Clearance of the 0.8365 session high exposes the 0.8370 round number
Loss of the 0.8347 Asian low breaks rising support from the PCE low
HH/HL chain from 0.8321 low; Asia broke the prior high and is holding above it.
The post-PCE leg from the 0.8321 spike low has built a clean higher-low chain, with US growth beats erasing the data-driven dip. Late in the Asia session, price cleared the prior high at 0.8362 to a 0.83654 session high and is now holding that prior high as support, with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.83617, 0.8355, 0.83469
Resistance: 0.83654, 0.8370
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8362 prior high turns the breakout into a false break; ema20 near 0.8355 is the next layer
Failure to hold the 0.8347 asian low breaks the higher-low trendline and the HL chain
Acceptance above the 0.83654 session high puts the 0.8370 round number in play
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) could materially shift this read around London open
The 12:30 UTC US PCE miss spiked the pair to the pce low at 0.8321, but strong GDP and Chicago PMI reversed it and NY hours ground up to the 0.8362 prior high. The Asia session held its asian low at 0.8347, then pushed to a session high at 0.8365, clearing the 0.8358 16-month high. Price is now retesting the prior high along the rising trendline structure, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 0.83617, 0.83469, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83654
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8362 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8347 asian low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Clearance of the 0.8365 session high extends the HH sequence
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1% y/y) could materially shift this read
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC are the larger risk for the trend
02:16 UTC
Uptrend, fresh window high in Asia · RSI 63 · price 0.83634
Higher lows from 0.8321 PCE low; NY high at 0.8362 broken.
Mid-Asia session, price pushed through the 0.8362 NY high to a 0.8365 Asian high after holding the 0.8347 Asian low. That extends the higher-low chain off the 0.8321 PCE low, with strong US growth data outweighing the PCE miss. RSI(14) near 63 is not stretched, and rising support sits near 0.8350.
Support: 0.83617, 0.83469, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83654, 0.8370
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8362 ny high would mark the Asia push as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8347 asian low and rising support breaks the higher-low chain
Close above the 0.8370 round number extends the breakout beyond the asian high
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) could materially shift this read; ISM 14:00 UTC later in the day
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing prior high · RSI 60 · price 0.83602
Higher lows from 0.8321; Asian range break attempt.
After the post-data spike to the 0.8321 day low during NY hours, buyers stepped in and built a higher-low chain, reinforced by the strong GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats. The Asian session double bottom at the 0.8347 Asian low held, and price has pushed through the 0.8358 Asia high to retest the 0.8362 prior high. That level sits just above the 0.8358 16-month mark.
Support: 0.8358, 0.8347, 0.8321
Resistance: 0.8362, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8362 prior high opens the 0.8400 round number
Slip back below the 0.8358 Asia high turns the break into a false break inside the Asian range
Loss of the 0.8347 Asian low (38.2% fib, rising support) breaks the higher-low chain
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC; ISM and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend from pce low, now pausing · RSI 51 · price 0.83552
Higher lows since 0.8321; Asian range 0.8347–0.8358 below the NY high.
The soft PCE print knocked the pair to the 0.8321 pce low at 12:30 UTC. Beats in GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI then drove a rising-lows rally to the 0.8362 ny high. Mid-Asia session, price is compressing between the 0.8347 asian low, tested twice near the 38.2% fib, and the 0.8358 asian high, with RSI flat near 51.
Support: 0.8347, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83579, 0.83617
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8347 asian low breaks the rising lows line and the 38.2% fib
Close above the 0.8358 asian high exposes the 0.8362 ny high
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) could break the Asian range
01:31 UTC
Post-NY uptrend paused, drifting in early Asia · RSI 43 · price 0.83503
Tight Asian range 0.8347–0.8358 below the 0.8362 NY high.
USDCHF recovered from the 0.8321 data low to a 0.8362 ny high during NY hours, as GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats offset the soft PCE print. Early Asia is holding a tight range between the 0.8347 asian low and the 0.8358 asian high. Price sits just under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 43, and the 38.2% fib of the NY rally lies just below the asian low.
Support: 0.8347, 0.8341
Resistance: 0.8358, 0.8362
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8347 asian low and 38.2% fib exposes the 0.8341 ny swing low
Close above the 0.8358 asian high reopens a test of the 0.8362 ny high
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC could break the Asian range either way
01:16 UTC
Pullback from NY high, momentum flat · RSI 45 · price 0.83493
Lower highs inside Asian range, 0.8347 floor tested twice.
Early Asia session. Price is drifting lower inside a 0.8347–0.8358 Asian range after the NY rally carried the pair from the post-PCE low at 0.8321 to a 0.8362 NY high. Lower highs have printed since that peak, while the 0.8347 Asian low has held twice, close to the 38.2% retracement of the NY rally fib.
Support: 0.8347, 0.8341
Resistance: 0.8358, 0.8362
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8347 asian low breaks the range and exposes the 50% fib at 0.8341
Close above the 0.8358 asian high ends the lower-highs sequence, with the 0.8362 ny high next
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) could materially shift this read
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM at 14:00 UTC are the larger USD risk later in the day
00:47 UTC
Post-PCE up-leg, Asia pullback · RSI 39 · price 0.83478
Lower highs from 0.8362 NY high; Asian shelf broken to the downside.
The soft-PCE spike to the 0.8321 pce low was absorbed by the US growth beats, and NY ran to a 0.8362 ny high. Early Asia has slipped out of the 0.8354 asian shelf to retest the 0.8347 rollover low, near the 38.2% of the post-PCE fib. Price is now under both EMAs with RSI(14) at 39.
Support: 0.83475, 0.83413, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.8354, 0.83579, 0.83617
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8347 rollover low exposes the 50% fib and swing low at 0.8341
Recapture of the 0.8354 asian shelf and the lower highs line toward the 0.8358 asia high neutralises the pullback
Swiss CPI 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) could materially shift this read ahead of the London open
A break back above the 0.8362 ny high resumes the post-PCE up-leg
00:31 UTC
Post-PCE uptrend, stalling in Asia · RSI 41 · price 0.83522
Higher lows from 0.8321 to a 0.8362 high; tight Asian range 0.8350–0.8358.
USD/CHF recovered fully from the soft-PCE flush to 0.8321 as the growth beats (GDP, Chicago PMI) took over, building higher lows into a 0.8362 NY high. The Asia session is a compressed 0.8350–0.8358 range, and price is sagging onto the asian low, the 23.6% fib and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 41. ATR(14) is about 3 pips.
Support: 0.83502, 0.83476, 0.83461
Resistance: 0.83579, 0.83617
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8350 asian low exposes the 0.8348 rollover low and the fib 38.2 at 0.8346
A recovery above the 0.8358 asian high reopens the 0.8362 ny high
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y, 0% m/m) could break the Asian range
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg with Waller at 14:00 UTC carry USD event risk
00:17 UTC
Post-PCE recovery stalling below NY high · RSI 48 · price 0.83528
Tight Asian range 0.8350–0.8358, sitting on 23.6% fib.
USDCHF erased the soft-PCE dip to 0.8321 as US growth beats absorbed it. NY hours then extended to a 0.8362 ny high, which was rejected. Early Asia session is compressing in a 0.8350–0.8358 range at the 23.6% pce-low fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and ATR under 3 pips.
Support: 0.8350, 0.83476, 0.83413
Resistance: 0.83579, 0.83617
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.8350 asian low exposes the 0.8348 rollover low and the 38.2% pce-low fib near 0.8346
Failure to hold 0.8346 shifts focus to the 50% fib at 0.8341, which is also the NY pullback low
M15 close above the 0.8358 asian high puts the 0.8362 ny high back in play
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) could break the Asian range
00:02 UTC
Uptrend from the PCE low, pausing in Asia · RSI 55 · price 0.8357
Higher lows through NY to a 0.8362 session high, now a tight 0.8354–0.8358 Asian range under lower highs.
The soft-PCE spike to 0.8321 was fully reversed in NY hours as growth beats offset the inflation miss. Price printed a session high at 0.8362, above the prior 0.8358 16-month top. Asia is coiling in a 0.8354–0.8358 band just above EMA20 and the 23.6% level of the PCE rally fib, with lower highs forming below the session high and RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 0.8354, 0.8348, 0.8341
Resistance: 0.8358, 0.8362
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8358 asian high and the lower highs line puts the 0.8362 session high back in focus
Loss of the 0.8354 asian low exposes the 0.8348 rollover low; below that, the fib 50% at 0.8341 marks the last NY higher low
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) could break the Asian range
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC, alongside Waller, could reprice October Fed hike odds
ATR(14) near 2.6 pips reflects thin Asian conditions; expect expansion into London