USD/CHF AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Friday, 2 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CHF 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
17:03 UTC
Uptrend broken, correcting from cycle high · RSI 42 · price 0.82931
Higher-low sequence from 0.8067 broken; swept the 0.8227 week low and rebounded.
The three-week higher-high, higher-low run from 0.8067 topped at the 0.8382 cycle high on Thursday. Fed pushback on further hikes, bond-market stress and a revived CHF haven bid then cut price through the rising trendline and the 0.8321 broken low. The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) drove a sweep just under the 0.8227 week low, near the 78.6% retracement of the 0.8183–0.8382 leg, before price recovered to 0.8293. It now sits below EMA20 and is testing the 0.8300 round number from beneath, with ATR(14) expanded to about 32 pips.
Support: 0.8227, 0.8183
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8321, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8321 broken low would challenge the rollover read
Failure to hold the 0.8227 week low exposes the 0.8183 swing low and confirms a lower-low below the rising trendline
EMA20 crossing under EMA50 would confirm the swing rollover from the cycle high
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via Fed October-hike odds
Lower low after 0.8382 peak; retesting prior breakout.
The higher-high, higher-low advance from the 0.8183 rally origin topped at the 0.8382 cycle high. Price has since rolled over through the 0.8290 breakdown area, and the soft NFP print (29K vs 90K, wages 0.1%) extended the slide into the 50–61.8% fib zone. Price is now retesting the 0.8260 breakout lvl that launched the mid-September leg, with ATR(14) expanding to about 28 pips. EMA20 is still above EMA50, so no bearish cross has printed yet.
Support: 0.8260, 0.8229, 0.8183
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8330, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.8260 breakout lvl and 61.8% fib exposes the 0.8229 swing low
Reclaim of the 0.8290 breakdown area eases the pullback read; the 0.8330 prior base sits above
EMA20 crossing below EMA50 would confirm the swing has turned
Loss of the 0.8183 rally origin would unwind the full September advance
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and FOMC Minutes Oct 7 could materially shift this read
09:03 UTC
Uptrend broken, pulling back · RSI 34 · price 0.82724
Rising trendline lost, lower low under 0.8290.
The higher-low sequence from 0.8183 that carried USDCHF to the 0.8382 swing high has been broken. Price cut through the rising trendline and the 0.8290 broken low as October Fed-hike odds fell to ~28% and the dollar unwound. Price is now testing the 0.8265 prior lows from the late-September consolidation, just above the 61.8% fib at 0.8259, and sits below both EMAs. ATR(14) has expanded to ~27 pips on the selloff, while RSI near 34 is approaching but not yet in oversold territory.
Support: 0.8265, 0.8259, 0.8229
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8306, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.8265 prior lows and the 61.8% fib at 0.8259 opens the 0.8229 rally base
Recovery above the 0.8290 broken low and the 38.2% fib at 0.8306 would neutralise the lower-low read
NFP at 12:30 GMT today (f/c 90K, prev 162K) could materially shift this read; a strong print or hot AHE revives the Fed-SNB gap
Swing high at 0.8382 caps the structure; the uptrend read only resumes on a reclaim of that area
05:03 UTC
Uptrend, first lower low on pullback · RSI 37 · price 0.82908
HH/HL sequence since 0.8183 broken below 0.8321 higher low.
The three-week climb from the 0.8183 swing low printed a rejection at the 0.8382 swing high, and the drop that followed broke the rising trendline and the 0.8321 higher low (now a broken low). CHF is recovering from 16-month lows as softer PCE cut October Fed hike odds to ~28%. Price is back below both EMAs and the 0.8300 round number and is approaching the 50% fib at 0.8283, with ATR(14) expanding to ~26 pips on the move.
Support: 0.82829, 0.8271, 0.82287
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83209, 0.83824
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 50% fib at 0.8283 and the 0.8271 prior lows would expose the 0.8229 swing low (61.8% at 0.8259)
Recovery above the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8321 broken low would restore the higher-low sequence
A retest of the 0.8382 swing high is needed to resume the higher-high structure
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~7.5h, f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
01:03 UTC
Uptrend, first lower-low after a sharp pullback · RSI 41 · price 0.83042
Higher lows from 0.8183, broken low at 0.8321, testing ema50.
Three weeks of higher lows carried USDCHF from 0.8183 to a 0.8382 cycle high, the 16-month extreme flagged in the digest, before a rejection there. The slide coincided with Thursday's US data slate, including a soft ISM manufacturing headline. It cut below the 0.8321 broken low and tagged the 0.8292 swing low near the rising trendline. Price now sits just above the ema50 around 0.8300 and close to the 38.2% fib at 0.8306, with ATR(14) expanding to about 25 pips after a quieter advance.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8292, 0.8271
Resistance: 0.8321, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.8292 swing low and rising trendline exposes the 0.8271 higher low and the 61.8% fib near 0.8259
Recovery back above the 0.8321 broken low restores the higher-low sequence toward the 0.8382 cycle high
Holding the ema50 near 0.8300 keeps the drop a retracement within the uptrend
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read