Lower highs from 0.8313; triple bottom near 0.8130 breaking up through neckline.
Lower-high structure runs from the 0.8313 peak, but three tests of the 0.8127–0.8135 triple low held. The blowout US payrolls beat drove price through the 0.8185 neckline and the lower-high line. The rally has stalled at the 38.2% retracement near 0.8198, just under the ema50 around 0.8205 and the fib 50% / session high at 0.8220. ATR(14) near 30 pips has eased from the early-week expansion. Price sits back above EMA20 but has not reclaimed EMA50.
Support: 0.8185, 0.8133, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8205, 0.8220, 0.8256
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.8220 fib 50% and the ema50 opens the path to the 0.8256 swing high
H4 close back below the 0.8185 neckline would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.8133 triple low and 0.8127 swing low would resume the lower-low sequence
US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC, plus Fed speakers including Daly and Waller, could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing in a tight range · RSI 51 · price 0.81819
Lower highs from 0.8313; 0.8127-0.8189 range holding.
The sequence of lower highs since the 0.8313 late-October peak runs through the 0.8256 lower high and the 0.8217 swing high. The decline stalled at the 0.8127 two-month low, which came after the post-midterm USD drop and hawkish SNB repricing on the hot Swiss CPI. Since then price has held a 0.8133 range floor and is pressing the 0.8189 range top, where the falling lower-high trendline and the 38.2% retracement near 0.8198 converge. Price is back above EMA20 but still below EMA50, with EMA20 below EMA50, and ATR(14) has eased to about 28 pips as the range compresses.
Support: 0.8133, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8189, 0.8217, 0.8256
What it said to watch
Oct NFP has just been released (actual not yet in feed); a firm print reviving Fed-hike pricing could test the 0.8189 range top and the trendline
H4 close above 0.8189 and the 38.2% fib at 0.8198 breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.8217 swing high
Failure to hold the 0.8133 range floor and a close below the 0.8127 two-month low would extend the lower-low structure
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 GMT, then Fed's Bowman, are follow-through risk for US yields
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into range · RSI 49 · price 0.81774
Lower highs from 0.8313, base forming 0.8127–0.8186.
USDCHF has printed a lower-high sequence since the 0.8313 peak, through the 0.8256 swing high and the 0.8217 lower high. The leg extended to the 0.8127 swing low after the hot Swiss CPI and post-midterm USD selling. Since then price has compressed in a roughly 60-pip band between the 0.8135 range low and the 0.8186 range high, which has capped four times. ATR(14) near 31 pips points to coiling into NFP, with price back above EMA20 but still under EMA50.
Support: 0.8135, 0.8127, 0.8100
Resistance: 0.8186, 0.8217, 0.8256
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8186 range high breaks the base and puts the 38.2% fib near 0.8198 and the 0.8217 lower high in play
Failure to hold the 0.8135 range low and the 0.8127 swing low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8100 round number
US October NFP at 13:30 GMT today is the catalyst most likely to resolve the range
A move back through the 0.8256 swing high would break the lower-high trendline structure outright
06:03 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a range · RSI 44 · price 0.81693
Lower highs from 0.8313; sideways 0.8130-0.8186 box above the two-month low.
Lower highs at 0.8313, 0.8256 and 0.8217 define the downtrend. The midterm-driven dollar drop and the hot Swiss CPI took price to a two-month swing low at 0.8127. Since then the pair has held a 0.8130-0.8186 range, testing the range low three times and capping at the range top twice, with price sitting just under the 23.6% retracement of the 0.8313-0.8127 decline. Price is below both EMA20 (~0.8175) and EMA50, RSI(14) is neutral near 44, and ATR(14) has settled near 28 pips after the post-election spike.
Support: 0.8133, 0.8127, 0.8100
Resistance: 0.8186, 0.8217, 0.8242
What it said to watch
US NFP, unemployment and AHE at 13:30 UTC today could break the range in either direction
H4 close above the 0.8186 range top exposes the 0.8217 lower high; a close above that breaks the lower-high sequence
Retracement cluster: 50% at 0.8220 near the lower high, 61.8% at 0.8242
Failure to hold the 0.8133 range low and the 0.8127 swing low confirms a lower low, with the 0.8100 round number next
Any SNB commentary on inflation or FX could add CHF-side pressure
02:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 42 · price 0.81554
Lower highs from 0.8313; 0.8130-0.8185 range at the lows.
Lower-high, lower-low sequence since the 0.8313 peak. Hot Swiss CPI and the post-midterm USD sell-off pushed the pair through 0.8200 to a 0.8127 swing low. Since then it has compressed into a 0.8130-0.8185 range: the range floor has held three tests and the range top caps near the falling lower-highs trendline, with price below both EMAs and the EMA20 under the EMA50.
Support: 0.8133, 0.8127, 0.8100
Resistance: 0.8185, 0.8217, 0.8256
What it said to watch
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC, with AHE in focus, could materially shift this read
H4 close above the 0.8185 range top and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending sequence and opens the 0.8217 lower high, near the 38.2% fib
Failure to hold the 0.8127 swing low and range floor extends the lower-low structure toward the 0.8100 round number
0.8256 swing high, the 61.8% retracement zone of the 0.8313 drop, marks the outer edge of any recovery