09:19 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 39 · price 0.77625
Lower highs since Q1 2025, multi-month base under 0.8050.
Macro regime is a downtrend that broke decisively in early Q2 2025 from the 0.88-0.90 zone down to 0.76, and price has since spent eight months ranging between the feb low at 0.7660 and the range cap at 0.8050. Price now sits in the lower half of that range at 0.7763, well below a declining EMA(50) — macro structure remains heavy. RSI(14) at 38 is subdued but not oversold, consistent with a basing rather than capitulation read.
Support: 0.7660
Resistance: 0.8050
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below 0.7660 confirms a fresh lower low and reopens the downtrend
- Weekly close above 0.8050 range cap would neutralise the basing read
- Sustained USD CPI surprises could shift the macro USD backdrop