USDCHF is in a clear lower-high sequence since the 0.7925 peak in late April, with rejections at 0.7889 and 0.7807 confirming supply on rallies. Price is basing near the 0.7762 swing low after probing 0.7762 twice this week, and the recent attempt up to 0.7795 has stalled below the 0.7807 swing high. ATR(14) around 20 pips shows compression versus the prior expansion, consistent with a falling wedge late-stage profile.
Support: 0.77616, 0.77693, 0.7745
Resistance: 0.78075, 0.78474, 0.78889
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.7807 swing high would break the lower-high sequence
Break and close below the 0.7762 swing low extends the downtrend toward 0.7745 psych
US CPI later this week could materially shift this read
Price has rolled over from the 0.7924 swing high printed late last month, building a sequence of lower highs and now pressing the 0.7762 swing low. The bounce off 0.7762 stalled cleanly at 0.7807 rejection with EMA20 capping near 0.7825, keeping the H4 structure heavy. ATR remains contained around 20 pips, so the move is grinding rather than impulsive.
Support: 0.77616, 0.77693, 0.7806
Resistance: 0.78075, 0.7825, 0.7870
What it said to watch
H4 close below 0.7762 swing low confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 0.7825 ema20 and 0.7870 ema50 would neutralise the downtrend read
Geopolitical headlines around US-Iran could disrupt the orderly structure
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, near range lows · RSI 38 · price 0.77781
Lower highs from 0.7924, retesting 0.7765 support shelf.
Price has carved a sequence of lower highs from 0.7924 down to the 0.7765 prior low, now compressing into a falling wedge with the latest bars stalling just above the range low at 0.7762. EMA20 and EMA50 cap rebounds at 0.7806 and 0.7847 respectively, while RSI in the high 30s shows fading downside momentum without a clean divergence yet. ATR(14) at ~18 pips signals contracted H4 range — typical of a coil before resolution.
Support: 0.7762, 0.7775, 0.7735
Resistance: 0.7806, 0.7847, 0.7890
What it said to watch
H4 close below 0.7762 range low confirms continuation of the downtrend
H4 close back above 0.7847 ema50 invalidates the lower-high structure
Hormuz/Iran headline risk over the weekend could materially shift CHF safe-haven flows