21:05 UTC
Uptrend, extended after range breakout · RSI 69 · price 0.82205
Higher highs and higher lows; cleared the June–Sept range ceiling.
Four-month uptrend off the 0.7840 base, and last week's push resolved the June–September 0.8040–0.8205 congestion to a 16-mo high at 0.82638, with the hawkish Fed hike and the 10y back near 5% the named driver. Price sits above a rising EMA(50) and above the EMA20 near 0.8140, but the last two daily closes have faded from the high and RSI(14) near 69 is the most stretched reading in the window. The immediate shelf is the 0.81532 swing low, with the 0.80521 sep pivot the deeper reference inside the broken range.
Support: 0.81532, 0.8140, 0.80521
Resistance: 0.82638, 0.8300
What it said to watch
- Daily close back below the 0.81532 swing low would negate the breakout read and put price back inside the prior range
- Acceptance above the 0.82638 16-mo high opens the path toward the 0.8300 round number
- SNB decision Thu 24 Sep 07:30 UTC (0% expected) — statement language on FX and inflation could materially shift this read
- US flash PMIs Wed 23 Sep are the week's main USD-side event risk for the trend structure