21:04 UTC
Uptrend since August, momentum stalling below highs · RSI 50 · price 0.82816
HH/HL chain from 0.7950 to 0.8395; lower high at 0.8313 after a 0.8192 higher low.
The uptrend that began at the 0.7950 August low carried price to the 0.8395 oct high, but two weekly pushes at 0.8382/0.8395 were rejected and the pullback found demand at the 0.8192 swing low, roughly a 43% retracement of the move. This week's four-day rebound, helped by firm USD after the Q3 GDP beat and CHF's role as a funding currency, stalled at 0.8313 for a lower high below the descending lower-high line. Price is holding just above the ema20 at 0.8274 with the rising EMA(50) near 0.8230, and the rising trendline from August is intact.
Support: 0.8274, 0.8192, 0.8120
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8395
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.8313 lower high and the 0.8320 cap breaks the lower-high line and reopens the 0.8395 oct high
- Failure to hold the 0.8192 swing low breaks the August rising trendline and HL chain, exposing the 61.8% fib near 0.8120
- Repeated daily closes below the ema20 at 0.8274 would point to a deeper rotation inside the 0.8192–0.8395 range
- US ECI Q3 and Fed's Daly/Musalem on Fri Oct 30 could shift December hike pricing and this read
- Swiss CPI on Tue Nov 3 is the key CHF catalyst; a hot print or risk-off shock could revive safe-haven CHF demand