21:06 UTC
Uptrend, stretched after six straight gains · RSI 75 · price 0.8338
Range breakout and retest, higher highs and higher lows since Aug 19 low.
USDCHF broke out of the 0.7950–0.8207 range that capped price from late June on 16 Sep. It retested the range top near 0.8183 on 22 Sep and has since printed a 16-month high at 0.8358, holding above a rising EMA(50). The SNB's dovish shift in FX-intervention language on 24 Sep, combined with Fed hike pricing, carried the pair through the 0.8300 round number, but a six-session run of higher closes has pushed RSI to around 75, deep in overbought territory.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8207, 0.7950
Resistance: 0.8358, 0.8400
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 16-month high at 0.8358 extends the breakout toward the 0.8400 psych level
- Failure to hold the 0.8300 round number exposes the range top at 0.8207, where the 38.2% retrace of the Aug–Sep swing sits near 0.8202
- A break of rising support from the Aug 19 low would end the higher-low sequence; the range low at 0.7950 marks full invalidation of the breakout
- RSI rolling back under 70 without a new high would flag momentum fading from overbought
- Swiss CPI (06:30 UTC) and US ISM with Waller (14:00 UTC) on Thu 1 Oct could materially shift this read