USD/CHF AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 30 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CHF 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:45 UTC
Intraday uptrend, holding near highs into Friday close · RSI 58 · price 0.82453
Asian range broken higher in NY, higher lows from 0.8225, testing 0.8250.
NY session broke the Asian high at 0.8239 and set a session high at 0.8256. Oil-linked franc softness and the KOF miss weighed on CHF. The NY pullback low at 0.8225 held near the 61.8% of the NY rally fib, and a swing low at 0.8231 then carried price back to the 0.8250 late high into the Friday close, with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 0.8239, 0.82307, 0.82251
Resistance: 0.82497, 0.82556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8256 session high extends the higher-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.8231 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 0.8225 NY pullback low
Price back below the 0.8239 Asian high would negate the breakout read
Weekend gap risk; Swiss Real Retail Sales Mon 07:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
20:47 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows into late NY · RSI 62 · price 0.82484
HH/HL chain from London low; pressing NY session high.
The NY rally from the 0.8203 London low broke above the Asian range and topped at the 0.8256 session high. The pullback low at 0.8225 held near the 61.8% fib, and successive higher lows since have price back near 0.8250 late in NY, with higher oil weighing on the franc per the digest.
Support: 0.82453, 0.82307, 0.82251
Resistance: 0.82556, 0.8260
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.8256 session high extends the HH chain toward the 0.8260 round number.
Slipping back under the 0.8245 breakout pt returns price to the post-pullback range.
Losing the 0.8231 higher low breaks the trendline and exposes the 0.8225 pullback low.
Friday close thins liquidity. Swiss retail sales (Mon 07:30 UTC) and US ISM (Mon 15:00 UTC) are the next scheduled risk.
20:31 UTC
Rebounding, compressing into weekly close · RSI 57 · price 0.82419
Higher low under NY high, tight late-NY range.
NY broke the Asian range high from the 0.8203 london low and ran to a 0.8256 ny high before a rejection sent price to a 0.8225 pullback low, close to the 61.8% of the rally. The digest ties the bounce to high oil weighing on CHF against a heavy USD. Late NY has printed a higher low at 0.8231 and is grinding under a 0.8245 session cap, with ATR down to about 5 pips into the weekly close.
Support: 0.8231, 0.8225, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.8245, 0.8256
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8245 session cap reopens the 0.8256 ny high
Loss of the 0.8231 higher low and the rising lows trendline puts the 0.8225 pullback low back in play
Weekend gap risk; Swiss Real Retail Sales Mon 07:30 UTC and US ISM Mon 15:00 UTC could reset this read
Higher low at 0.8231 under a 0.8245 lower high, inside the 0.8225–0.8256 NY range.
After the 0.8194 Asia low, a London double bottom near 0.8203 fed an NY rally to a 0.8256 session high as higher oil weighed on the franc. The pullback held 0.8225, between the 50% and 61.8% fib, and late-NY price is compressing between a 0.8231 higher low and a 0.8245 lower high into the weekly close.
Support: 0.8231, 0.8225, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.8245, 0.8256
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8245 lower high puts the 0.8256 session high back in play
Break of the 0.8225 NY low and the rising support line reopens the 0.8203 double bottom
Thin Friday close; Monday's Swiss retail sales and ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could reset this read
Higher lows below the NY session high, compressing 0.8231–0.8245.
Late NY on a Friday. London held the 0.8203 lows twice, then NY broke above the Asian range top and ran to a 0.8256 session high, with higher oil denting the franc's haven appeal. The pullback found the NY low at 0.8225, near the 61.8% fib of the NY rally, and a higher low at 0.8231 followed. Price is now compressing beneath the 0.8245 swing high with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 0.82307, 0.82251
Resistance: 0.82453, 0.82556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8245 swing high reopens the 0.8256 session high
Break of the 0.8231 higher low turns focus back to the 0.8225 NY low and the fib zone
Weekly close in about 1h, with thin liquidity; Monday's ISM (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low, momentum flattening · RSI 62 · price 0.82403
Post-breakout compression: lower high vs higher low in late NY.
From 13:00 UTC NY lifted off the London low near 0.8203 and cleared the Asian range high at 0.8239, peaking at the NY high of 0.8256. That happened against a softer USD backdrop. Since the dip to the NY swing low at 0.8225, late-NY trade has compressed between a lower high at 0.8244 and a higher pullback low at 0.8231. RSI(14) sits near 62 and ATR is about 6 pips.
Support: 0.82307, 0.82251, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.82439, 0.82556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8244 lower high reopens the 0.8256 NY high
Break of the 0.8231 pullback low exposes the 0.8225 NY swing low and the 0.618 fib
Loss of 0.8225 puts the London low at 0.8203 back in focus
Thin Friday close liquidity; Swiss Retail Sales and US ISM on Monday can gap the open
Compression between a lower high and a higher low in late NY.
The 0.8203 london lows held twice, then NY rallied to a 0.8256 session high as higher oil eroded the franc's haven appeal. That high was rejected, and price retraced to a 0.8225 ny pullback low near the 61.8% fib. Late-NY trade is compressing between a 0.8244 lower high and a 0.8231 higher low, with RSI(14) near 47 and price just under EMA20.
Support: 0.8231, 0.8225, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.8244, 0.8256
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8244 lower high reopens the 0.8256 session high
Loss of the 0.8231 higher low exposes the 0.8225 ny pullback and the 61.8% fib zone
Friday close into the weekend: Swiss Real Retail Sales and US ISM on Monday could reset the intraday structure
19:03 UTC
NY rally stalled, compressing into Friday close · RSI 51 · price 0.82366
Lower high 0.8244 against higher lows 0.8225/0.8231, a contracting range.
NY lifted USDCHF from the 0.8203 London low to a 0.8256 NY high as higher oil weighed on the franc. A pullback then held the 0.8225 NY pullback low, between the 50% and 61.8% levels of the NY rally fib. Late-NY trade is compressing between a 0.8244 lower high and higher lows at 0.8231, with price sitting on EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral at 51.
Support: 0.82307, 0.82251, 0.82026
Resistance: 0.82439, 0.82556, 0.82633
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8231 late NY low, then the 0.8225 NY pullback, breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 0.8203 London low
M15 close above the 0.8244 lower high reopens the 0.8256 NY high and the 0.8263 prior high
Thin Friday-close liquidity; Swiss Real Retail Sales (Mon 07:30 UTC) and US ISM (Mon 15:00 UTC) carry reopen risk for this range
Lower high under 0.8256 session high; 0.8225–0.8244 range.
Higher oil helped USD trim losses against CHF despite the softer dollar. That lifted the pair from the 0.8203 London low to a 0.8256 session high in NY hours, where it met rejection. Since then it has formed a lower high at 0.8244 and settled into a 0.8225–0.8244 range after London close, sitting near the 38.2% retracement of the up-leg with RSI(14) in the low 40s.
Support: 0.8231, 0.8225, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.8244, 0.8256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8231 swing low exposes the 0.8225 NY low near the 61.8% retracement
Close above the 0.8244 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 0.8256 session high
Friday late-NY liquidity is thin; weekend gap risk ahead of Mon Swiss retail sales and ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC)
NY broke above Asian range, retested, now lower high under session high.
NY lifted USDCHF off the 0.8203 london low and through the Asian high near 0.8236 to a 0.8256 session high, helped by firmer oil eroding the franc's appeal. The pullback held at the 0.8225 pullback low (~57% of the leg), and late-Friday trade is now compressing between the 0.8231 swing low and a 0.8244 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and ATR(14) about 8 pips.
Support: 0.8231, 0.8225, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.8244, 0.8256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8225 pullback low unwinds the NY breakout and reopens the 0.8203 london low
Close above the 0.8244 lower high puts the 0.8256 session high back in play
Thin Friday close liquidity; ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid Monday 15:00 UTC are the next scheduled risk
Asian range broken higher in NY; consolidation 0.8231–0.8244 under a lower high.
A NY-session rally off the London base near 0.8203 broke the Asian range high at 0.8236 as oil strength helped USD trim losses against CHF, topping at the 0.8256 session high at 15:00 UTC. The pullback held the ny low at 0.8225, near the 61.8% fib, and price is now coiling after London close between a 0.8231 higher low and the 0.8244 lower high, RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 0.82312, 0.82251, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.82439, 0.82556, 0.82645
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8244 lower high reopens the 0.8256 session high, with Thursday's prior high at 0.8265 above
Loss of the 0.8231 higher low exposes the 0.8225 ny low and 61.8% fib; below there, the London base at 0.8203
Thin late-Friday liquidity; Monday's Swiss retail sales and US ISM could materially shift this read
Higher low at 0.8225 after rejection at 0.8256, compressing under 0.8244.
A double low at 0.8203 through London gave way to a London-NY transition rally as USD clawed back losses despite the Chicago PMI miss. The move stalled at a 0.8256 session high and pulled back to a 0.8225 swing low. Price is now pinned just under the 0.8244 intraday cap with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 0.8225, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.8244, 0.8256, 0.8264
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8244 intraday cap reopens the 0.8256 session high and the 0.8264 prior high
Break of the 0.8225 swing low (near the 61.8% fib) negates the higher-low structure and exposes the 0.8203 double low
Late-Friday thin liquidity; ISM Mon and Swiss CPI Tue are the next scheduled catalysts
17:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, pausing below NY high · RSI 49 · price 0.82388
Higher low at 0.8225 after rejection at 0.8256; lower high at 0.8242 forming.
A double bottom at 0.8203 from London hours launched a NY rally to 0.8256 as USD clawed back losses. Price was rejected there, and the pullback found a swing low at 0.8225 near the 61.8% fib. Late NY trade is consolidating around EMA20 below the 0.8242 lower high, RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 0.82251, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.82417, 0.82556, 0.82645
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8225 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8203 double bottom
Close above the 0.8242 lower high reopens the NY high at 0.8256, then the prior high at 0.8264
Thin late-Friday liquidity after London close; Mon ISM Manufacturing and Swiss retail sales could reset the read at the open
NY breakout above the Asian range, rejected at 0.8256; consolidating 0.8225–0.8242.
After a London session that held 0.8203–0.8224, NY lifted the pair through the Asian range high at 0.8239 to a 0.8256 session high as USD pared earlier losses, then met rejection. The pullback low at 0.8225 sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the NY rally, and price is now consolidating under a 0.8242 lower high with RSI(14) neutral at 55.
Support: 0.8225, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.8242, 0.8256, 0.8264
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.8225 pullback low exposes the 0.8203 london low and puts the NY rally at risk of a full retrace
Close above the 0.8242 lower high brings the 0.8256 session high back into view; above that sits the 0.8264 prior high from yesterday's NY session
Weekly close at 21:00 UTC (00:00 broker) — thin late-Friday liquidity can distort this range
17:02 UTC
Intraday rally off London low, momentum faded · RSI 50 · price 0.82364
Higher low at 0.8225 after rejection from 0.8256 session high.
NY session lifted USDCHF from the 0.8203 London low through the Asian range high near 0.8239 to a 0.8256 session high. It then reversed sharply to a 0.8225 pullback low, close to the 61.8% retrace of the rally. Price is now rotating near 0.8236 with RSI(14) neutral around 50, while softer USD and lower yields frame the fade from the high.
Support: 0.82251, 0.82026
Resistance: 0.82417, 0.82556
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8225 pullback low breaks the rising support from the London low and exposes 0.8203
M15 close above the 0.8242 bounce high reopens the 0.8256 session high
Thin late-Friday liquidity into the weekly close; US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk
NY hours lifted the pair from the 0.8203 london low to a 0.8256 session high despite the Chicago PMI miss, then a rejection pulled it back to a 0.8225 ny low just short of the 61.8% fib. Price is holding just above EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 53 as London closes.
Support: 0.8225, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8265
What it said to watch
Fed's Musalem at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.8225 ny low exposes the 0.8203 london low
M15 close above the 0.8256 session high opens the 0.8265 prior high
NY session high rejected, retracing to mid-range of the NY rally.
NY session lifted USDCHF off the 0.8203 double bottom set in London to a 0.8256 session high, then a sharp rejection erased about half the move to a 0.8226 pullback low, back under EMA20. Price now sits near the 50% retracement and below the 0.8236 london high, with the soft-USD tone from the digest still the backdrop.
Support: 0.82263, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.82359, 0.82556
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8226 pullback low exposes the 0.8203 double bottom
Reclaim of the 0.8236 london high would put the 0.8256 session high back in play
Fed's Musalem at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
False break above Asian high, now a 50% retrace of the NY rally.
The NY rally off the 0.8203 double low broke the 0.8236 asian high and peaked at the 0.8256 session high at 15:00 UTC. Supply then pushed price back to 0.8230 into London close, a 50% retrace of the rally and back below the asian high, as the tech-led USD softness reasserted. RSI(14) has cooled to about 50 and price sits under EMA20 but above EMA50.
Support: 0.8226, 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8236, 0.8256, 0.8267
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.8236 asian high negates the false-break read, with the 0.8256 session high next
Only a break of 0.8256 brings yesterday's 0.8267 prior high back into view
Loss of the 0.8226 pullback low exposes the 0.8203 double low, then the 0.8194 asian low
Fed's Daly (16:00Z) and Musalem (16:30Z) on hike timing could materially shift this read
NY broke the London range high; tight consolidation 0.8242–0.8256 above it.
USD clawed back part of its losses during NY hours. The NY rally ran about 53 pips off the 0.8203 triple low, which held three times through Asia and London, cleared the 0.8236 London high and topped at a 0.8256 session high. Price is now compressing between the 0.8242 NY range low and the high, with RSI(14) cooling to about 65.
Support: 0.8242, 0.8236, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8242 NY range low opens a retest of the 0.8236 London high, which sits near the 38.2% of the NY rally fib
M15 close above the 0.8256 session high exposes the 0.8263 pre-drop level from Thursday's 20:00 UTC selloff
Slipping back inside the London range below 0.8236 puts the 0.8203 triple low back in focus
Fed's Daly at 16:00Z and Musalem at 16:30Z, landing around London close, could materially shift this read
15:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, momentum stalling under session high · RSI 62 · price 0.82446
Higher lows from 0.8203 double bottom, now a tight 0.8242–0.8256 box.
From the London double bottom at 0.8203, NY extended a rally through the 0.8239 Asian high as oil-driven CHF softness outweighed the Chicago PMI miss. Three tests of the 0.8253–0.8256 session high have capped price, which is now compressing in a box above the 0.8242 box low; RSI(14) has cooled to ~62.
Support: 0.82423, 0.8239, 0.82291
Resistance: 0.82556, 0.8262, 0.82702
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8256 session high opens the 0.8262 pre-drop shelf, then the 0.8270 prior high
M15 close below the 0.8242 box low puts a retest of the 0.8239 Asian high in play, with the fib 50% at 0.8229 below
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) into the Friday close could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 64 · price 0.82436
Higher lows from 0.8203 double bottom; NY high capped twice at 0.8253.
From the London-NY transition, USD/CHF rallied about 50 pips off the London lows at 0.8203 and cleared the range top at 0.8223 and the Asia high at 0.8236. Oil strength is weighing on CHF, as the digest notes. Two tests of the 0.8253 session high met rejection, and RSI(14) has cooled to ~64 as price holds inside yesterday's breakdown zone below the prior range at 0.8262.
Support: 0.8236, 0.8223, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.8253, 0.8262
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8253 session high opens the prior range at 0.8262
Loss of the Asia high at 0.8236 and the NY trendline puts the 0.8223 range top and 38.2–50% fib zone in play
Failure to hold the 0.8203 london lows negates the double bottom
NY rally broke above London high; two rejections at 0.8253.
A double low near 0.8203 held through London. The NY rally then broke above the 0.8236 London high and the Asian high to reach a 0.8253 session high, which rejected twice in the 14:00–14:30 UTC bars. Higher oil eroding CHF's haven appeal explains the lift despite a soft USD. Price is now holding the 0.8242 pullback low, with RSI(14) cooling from overbought.
Support: 0.8242, 0.8236, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.8253, 0.8270
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) speak inside the next hour and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8253 session high reopens the 0.8270 prior high
Loss of the 0.8242 pullback low puts the 0.8236 London high and 38.2% NY rally fib (~0.8234) in play
Break back below the 0.8203 double low would undo the NY rally structure
14:46 UTC
Uptrend, extended into NY · RSI 73 · price 0.82458
Higher highs and higher lows off the 0.8203 double low, London high broken.
NY session extended the rally off the 0.8203 double low through the London high at 0.8236. Oil-driven CHF softness pushed price to a session high at 0.8253, above the 0.8230 area cited in the market read. RSI(14) is near 73 after the push, and the latest bars are stalling just below the session high, with the 0.8262 prior shelf from yesterday's pre-drop range overhead.
Support: 0.82359, 0.82289, 0.82026
Resistance: 0.82529, 0.8262
What it said to watch
Hold above the 0.8236 london high keeps the breakout and retest structure intact; a close back below it, then the 0.8229 pullback low, breaks the intraday higher-low chain
M15 close above the 0.8253 session high exposes the 0.8262 prior shelf
Loss of the 0.8203 double low would invalidate the reversal structure
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended after NY breakout · RSI 76 · price 0.82468
Higher lows since 0.8203 double bottom; London high broken.
The NY session drove a 50-pip leg from the 0.8203 double bottom through the London high at 0.8236 to a 0.8253 session high. Oil-driven CHF softness and the soft KOF print helped the move. RSI(14) near 76 is hot but not extreme, and price is holding just below the high.
Support: 0.82358, 0.82289, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.82529, 0.8263
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8236 London high puts the breakout in doubt and exposes the 0.8229 NY pullback low
An M15 close above the 0.8253 session high opens the 0.8257–0.8263 prior range from yesterday's NY session
A break below the 0.8203 double bottom would negate the NY rally leg
Fed's Daly at 16:00 UTC and Musalem at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off 0.8203 double bottom; Asian range high cleared.
A London double bottom at 0.8203 gave way to a steady rally into the NY session after the in-line ECI. The rally cleared the 0.8239 Asian high and the 0.8230 session high flagged in the digest. Price at 0.8249 is pressing the 0.8250 psych level with RSI(14) near 74, and the 0.8229 retest low holds as the latest higher low.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8229, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.8250, 0.8262
What it said to watch
Chicago PMI (f/c 56.1) now, then Daly 16:00 and Musalem 16:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close above 0.8250 psych opens the 0.8262 prior range from yesterday's NY session
Close back below the 0.8239 Asian high puts price back inside the Asian range
Break of the 0.8229 retest low and the rally trendline ends the HL chain; the 0.8203 double bottom sits below
14:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending in NY · RSI 74 · price 0.82485
Double bottom at 0.8203, above London and Asian highs.
After the in-line ECI, the NY session broke the double bottom neckline at 0.8224, then cleared the 0.8236 london high and the Asian range top at 0.8239, helped by a softer CHF on the KOF miss and higher oil. Price is pressing the 0.8250 round number, which sits at the 61.8% fib of the 0.8286–0.8194 decline. RSI(14) at 74 is hot but not extreme.
Support: 0.8236, 0.8224
Resistance: 0.8250, 0.8262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8250 round number opens yesterday's 0.8262 ny range lows
Failure back below the 0.8236 london high returns price to the Asian range
A break of rally support from 0.8203 would show momentum fading, with the 0.8224 neckline below
Chicago PMI now, then Daly at 16:00 UTC and Musalem at 16:30 UTC, could shift the USD tone
Higher low at 0.8203 after the 0.8194 Asia low; early-London high cleared.
Price built a double bottom at 0.8203 through London, a higher low above the 0.8194 Asia low. It then rallied about 38 pips into NY as USD clawed back losses after the in-line ECI. The breakout cleared the 0.8236 London high and the 0.8230 area, and the session high at 0.8241 now sits just below the 0.8246 breakdown pt left by yesterday's late-NY drop.
Support: 0.8236, 0.8226, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.8241, 0.8246, 0.8262
What it said to watch
Holding 0.8236 (London high) keeps the breakout intact; slipping back below it makes it a false break toward the fib 38.2 at 0.8226
A close above 0.8246 (breakdown pt) reopens yesterday's prior range near 0.8262
Failure of the 0.8203 double btm and the Asia rising support would reinstate the lower-low sequence
Chicago PMI (f/c 56.1) due now, then Fed's Daly at 16:00 UTC and Musalem at 16:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Double bottom at London lows, neckline broken in early NY.
Buyers defended the 0.8203 london low twice, at 08:15 and 11:45 UTC. Early NY then cleared the 0.8224 neckline, and price is now pressing the 0.8236 london high with RSI(14) near 69. The bounce matches the dollar recouping some losses on the GDP narrative, though the 0.8194 asian low remains the day's floor.
Support: 0.82236, 0.82026, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82359, 0.8239, 0.82446
What it said to watch
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC (f/c 56.1) lands on the current bar and could decide the london high test
M15 close above 0.8236 london high opens the 0.8239 asian high, then the 0.8245 dbl bot tgt
Close back below the 0.8224 neckline, near the 38.2% fib of the NY rally, turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of 0.8203 london low re-exposes the 0.8194 asian low
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could shift December hike pricing and this read
13:16 UTC
Rebounding from intraday low, testing upper range · RSI 61 · price 0.82278
Higher low at 0.8203 versus the 0.8194 Asian low; price is back above the 0.8224 pivot.
Price rejected the 0.8236 London high at the open and found a double low at 0.8203. It has since reclaimed the 0.8224 pivot and printed a 0.8230 NY session high, with RSI(14) near 61. The bounce cuts against a USD-led three-day slide as softer yields keep CHF firm, and price has retraced roughly 76% of the London sell-off fib.
Support: 0.82236, 0.82026, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82298, 0.82359, 0.8250
What it said to watch
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC, then Fed's Daly (16:00) and Musalem (16:30), could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 0.8236 London high opens the 0.8250 round number
A close back below the 0.8224 pivot returns focus to the 0.8203 double low
A break of the higher lows trendline and the 0.8203 double low exposes the 0.8194 Asian low
13:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend stalling, NY rebound in play · RSI 62 · price 0.82278
Double bottom at 0.8203, range top 0.8224 broken.
A third day of soft USD drove the slide to the 0.8194 asian low. London twice held 0.8203 for a double btm, and the 12:30 UTC ECI bar cleared the 0.8224 range top. Price now presses the 0.8230 ny high, sitting beyond the 61.8% of the London drop with RSI(14) near 62.
Support: 0.82236, 0.82026, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82298, 0.82359, 0.8250
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.8236 london high reclaims the whole London drop and puts 0.8250 recovery in view
Slip back below the 0.8224 range top marks the ECI pop as a false break
Loss of the 0.8203 double btm reopens the 0.8194 asian low
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Daly at 16:00 UTC could shift this read
12:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing above the London low · RSI 44 · price 0.82133
Lower highs from 0.8236 into a flat 0.8203 floor, inside the Asian range.
The post-FOMC USD slide carried USD/CHF to a 0.8194 Asian low before price recovered into the 0.8194–0.8236 Asian range. London has printed lower highs from 0.8236 to the 0.8224 swing high and then 0.8215, while the 0.8203 London low held twice. Price is sitting just under the lower-highs line into the ECI release, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR about 6 pips, so the range is contracting.
Support: 0.82026, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82236, 0.82358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower-highs line and the 0.8224 swing high breaks the London compression
Failure to hold the 0.8203 London low exposes the 0.8200 round number and the 0.8194 Asian low
Reclaim of the 0.8236 Asian high ends the lower-high sequence
ECI (12:30 UTC) and Chicago PMI (13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read in the first hour of NY, with Daly and Musalem due at 16:00 and 16:30 UTC
The pre-London spike to the 0.8236 session high was rejected at the open. Price has since compressed in a 0.8203–0.8224 range beneath a line of lower highs, and the 0.8203 london low has held twice. RSI(14) is neutral near 46, with price pinned at EMA20 as the post-FOMC USD softness keeps the pair heavy into the US ECI.
Support: 0.82026, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82191, 0.82236, 0.82359
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) lands on the current bar and could materially shift this read; Daly 16:00 and Musalem 16:30 UTC follow
M15 close below the 0.8203 london low exposes the 0.8194 asia low and the 0.8191–0.8200 monthly-low zone
Close above the lower-highs line and the 0.8219 lower high breaks the compression; the 0.8224 london high and 0.8236 session high sit above
12:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 45 · price 0.82058
Lower-high sequence inside Asian range, pressing London low.
Rejected at the Asian high of 0.8236. London has since printed lower highs at 0.8224 (the London high) and 0.8216, and is now retesting the 0.8203 London low, with RSI(14) near 45 and well clear of extremes. The pressure is USD-led, on lower yields and Iran-diplomacy hopes, and price remains inside the 0.8194–0.8236 Asian range.
Support: 0.82026, 0.8200, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82157, 0.82236, 0.82358
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read; Chicago PMI follows at 13:45
An M15 close below the 0.8203 London low exposes the 0.8200 round number and the 0.8194 Asian low
A close above the 0.8216 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline; 0.8224 London high is next
Daly 16:00 and Musalem 16:30 UTC remarks on a December hike are a NY-session risk
12:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 44 · price 0.82058
Lower-high chain pressing the London low inside the Asian range.
London sold off from the 0.8236 Asian high, and the 09:00 UTC bounce was rejected at the fib 61.8 near 0.8224. Successive lower highs since then have price pressing the 0.8203 London low ahead of the NY open, in line with a third day of softer-dollar, firmer-CHF tone. The 0.8200 psych level and the 0.8194 Asian low sit just below.
Support: 0.82026, 0.8200, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82145, 0.82236, 0.82359
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) lands in the first NY bars and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.8203 London low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8200 psych and the 0.8194 Asian low
M15 close above the 0.8215 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Reclaim of the 0.8224 fib 61.8 negates the London drop structure; the 0.8236 Asian high is the range top
11:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 42 · price 0.82047
Lower highs from 0.8236 London high, price pressing London low.
The London-open spike to the 0.8236 London high failed below the Asian high. Since then the London session has printed a descending resistance of lower highs at 0.8224 and 0.8216, with USD soft for a third day post-FOMC. Price is now pressing the 0.8203 London low, and the 0.8194 Asian low sits just above the 0.8191 monthly low.
Support: 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8216, 0.8224, 0.8236
What it said to watch
ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read. A hot print would test the descending resistance; a soft one adds pressure on the lows.
M15 close below the 0.8203 London low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8194 Asian low.
M15 close above the 0.8216 lower high breaks the descending resistance, putting the 0.8224 swing high and 0.8236 London high back in view.
Late London is still inside the Asian range (0.8194–0.8239). Highs have stepped lower from the 0.8236 pre-London high to the 0.8224 swing high, while the 0.8203 London low held at the 78.6% of the Asian low-high retrace. Price is now coiling between the 0.8207 session low and 0.8219 with RSI(14) flat near 50 and ATR around 6.6 pips. The softer post-FOMC dollar keeps the franc firm, and ECI is the next catalyst into the NY open.
Support: 0.82071, 0.82027, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82236, 0.82359, 0.8239
What it said to watch
ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%), in the first hour of NY, is the likely trigger out of the 0.8207–0.8219 coil
Loss of the 0.8207 session low and then the 0.8203 London low exposes the 0.8194 Asian low
M15 close above the 0.8224 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.8236 pre-London high and the 0.8239 Asian high
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) on December hike odds could shift the read during NY hours
Lower highs from 0.8236 against higher lows from 0.8194; contracting range into the NY open.
Soft-dollar selling carried USDCHF to an Asian low at 0.8194, near the monthly low, and the pre-London high at 0.8236 met rejection. London has since compressed between the London low at 0.8203 and a falling resistance line, with the latest lower high at 0.8219. RSI(14) sits near 44 below both EMAs, and ATR is under 7 pips.
Support: 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8219, 0.8236
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) is due in about 75 min and could break the compression either way
A close below the 0.8203 London low exposes the 0.8194 Asian low and monthly-low area
A close above the 0.8219 lower high and the falling resistance line reopens 0.8230 and the 0.8236 pre-ldn high
A break of the rising support line from the Asian low ends the higher-low sequence
London open pushed briefly above the Asian range to 0.8236 (london high), drew a rejection and slid to the 0.8203 london low, holding above the 0.8194 asian low. The 09:00 UTC bounce stalled at the 61.8% fib near 0.8224. Since then, a lower high at 0.8219 against a rising low near 0.8210 has squeezed price into a tight consolidation below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR(14) about 7 pips. A softer dollar, not Swiss data, has driven the three-day slide.
Support: 0.8210, 0.82027, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82191, 0.82359
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8219 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.8236 london high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8210 rising low exposes the 0.8203 london low, then the 0.8194 asian low near the 0.8191 monthly low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) during the first hour of NY could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8236, lows lifting; coiling 0.8210–0.8219.
Mid-London, USDCHF is still inside the 0.8194–0.8239 Asian range. London met rejection at the 0.8236 london high and slid to the 0.8203 london low. The bounce then stalled at the 61.8 fib near 0.8224, and price is now compressing above the 0.8210 intraday low, just under EMA20/50, as the post-FOMC USD softness keeps the CHF firm.
Support: 0.8210, 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8224, 0.8236
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read; a hot print would test the lower-high trendline
M15 close above the 61.8 fib at 0.8224 breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.8236 london high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8210 intraday low and the 0.8203 london low exposes the 0.8194 asian low
Lower high under the Asian high, compressing above the session base.
London opened with a rejection at the Asian high of 0.8236, and the London drop ran to a London low at 0.8203. The rebound stalled near the 61.8% retrace at 0.8224, setting a lower high. Price is now compressing just above a session base at 0.8210 with RSI(14) near 44, as CHF stays firm against a softer dollar.
Support: 0.8210, 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8224, 0.8236
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8224 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.8236 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.8210 session base exposes the 0.8203 London low, then the 0.8194 Asian low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read; Chicago PMI follows at 13:45
London trading inside the Asian range; lower highs at 0.82359 and 0.82236 above a 0.82027 swing low.
Soft-dollar selling after the Fed hold carried USDCHF from the 0.82969 NY-session high to a 0.81936 Asia low near the monthly low. London was capped at the 0.82359 Asian high, slid to a 0.82027 london low, and the bounce was rejected at the 0.82236 swing high near the 61.8% retracement. Price is drifting below the falling trendline at 0.8211, with ranges contracting at about 7.5 pips per bar.
Support: 0.82027, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82236, 0.82359
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.82027 london low reopens the 0.81936 monthly low
M15 close above the 0.82236 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and the falling trendline
Asian high at 0.82359 caps the session range; London remains inside it
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing above the Asian low · RSI 42 · price 0.82125
Lower highs inside the 0.8194–0.8236 range.
Soft USD carried the pair from yesterday's 0.8297 post-data high to an Asian low of 0.8194. London was rejected at its 0.8236 session high and slid to a 0.8203 london low. The bounce stalled at a 0.8224 lower high, almost exactly the 61.8% of that London leg, and price sits mid-range near 0.8212 below both EMAs.
Support: 0.82027, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82236, 0.82359
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.8203 london low exposes the 0.8194 asian low, which sits near the 0.8191 monthly low
M15 close above the 0.8224 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; above the 0.8236 london high voids the London rejection
Lower high at 0.8224 after London drop; holding above Asian low.
London faded the 0.8236 Asian high down to a 0.8203 London low, holding above the 0.8194 Asian low. The rebound met rejection at 0.8224, a 61.8% retrace of the London drop, leaving a lower high. Price is now compressing near 0.8214 below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) neutral around 45, while softer USD on US-Iran peace hopes keeps the pair heavy.
Support: 0.82104, 0.82027, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82236, 0.82359
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8210 swing low and 0.8203 London low exposes the 0.8194 Asian low
M15 close above the 0.8224 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 0.8236 Asian high
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) on December hike risk add NY-session event risk
09:31 UTC
Down from yesterday's 0.8297 high, now ranging · RSI 45 · price 0.82141
Inside Asian range, lower highs since London open.
Price is still inside the Asian range (asian low 0.8194, asian high 0.8239). London met rejection at 0.8236, the london high, and sold to 0.8203 before bouncing. Highs keep stepping lower, the latest lower high at 0.8224, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) neutral near 45 as a softer USD on US-Iran peace hopes caps rallies.
Support: 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8224, 0.8236, 0.8239
What it said to watch
M15 close below the london low at 0.8203 exposes the asian low at 0.8194, close to the 0.8191 monthly low
Reclaim of the 0.8224 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; above 0.8236–0.8239 London and Asian highs flips the range read
US ECI 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read; Daly and Musalem speak later in NY hours
London range 0.8203–0.8236 nested inside Asian range 0.8194–0.8239.
Mid-London, USDCHF is still inside the Asian range. The London open was rejected at the 0.8236 london high, and the sell-off held at the 0.8203 london low, matching the 03:00 UTC Asia higher low. The rebound has stalled near the 61.8% of the London leg (~0.8223), with RSI(14) neutral at 49 and price on EMA20 but below EMA50 near 0.8231. The broader slide from 0.8297 tracks USD softness on US-Iran peace hopes.
Support: 0.82027, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82359, 0.82445
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8236 london high breaks the Asian range top and puts the 0.8245 late-ny base, the pre-rollover shelf, in play
Failure to hold the 0.8203 london low exposes the 0.8194 asia low, close to the 0.8191 monthly low
US ECI 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC (f/c 56.1) could break the London range either way
Lower highs from 0.8236; london low 0.8203 holds above asia low 0.8194.
USD/CHF is on a third day of declines on a softer dollar. Supply capped the pre-ldn high at 0.8236, and the London open sold to a london low at 0.8203, which held above the asia low at 0.8194. Price is now bouncing into the 38.2–50% fib of that drop (0.8215–0.8219), still below a falling London lower-high line.
Support: 0.82027, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82193, 0.82275, 0.82359
What it said to watch
Hold below the fib 50% at 0.8219 and the 0.8228 lower high keeps the London lower-high sequence intact
M15 close above the 0.8236 pre-ldn high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Break of the 0.8203 london low reopens the 0.8194 asia low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Intraday downswing inside a broader Asia-session range · RSI 38 · price 0.82093
Lower highs since the London-open rejection, testing the London low.
The pre-London push to the 0.8236 London high was rejected at the open, and price has printed lower highs since. It is now back on the 0.8203 London low, which also held during Asia and sits on the 61.8% retrace of the Asia low–London high move, with the dollar soft for a third day.
Support: 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8220, 0.8236
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8203 London low exposes the 0.8194 Asia low and the bottom of the session range
Reclaim of the 0.8220 broken lows breaks the lower-highs sequence
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Pre-London bounce rejected, early London back at swing low.
A softer dollar keeps the franc firm. The pre-London bounce stalled at the 0.8236 session high, just above the 38.2% fib of the NY-Asia drop, and early London has unwound it back to the 0.8203 swing low. RSI(14) is near 34 with price below both EMAs. The 0.8200 round number and the 0.8194 Asia low sit just beneath, while the 0.8220 shelf caps above.
Support: 0.8203, 0.8200, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8220, 0.8236
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8194 asia low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the 0.8220 shelf would neutralise the early-London breakdown
Holding the 0.8203 swing low and 0.8200 round number would leave a range with the Asia low as its floor
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Pullback inside Asian range, lower highs since London open · RSI 42 · price 0.82147
London rejected 0.8236 below the Asian high; price now sits at the 50% retracement of the Asian rally.
Early London rejected 0.8236 (london high), just shy of the 0.8239 Asian high. Price has stepped down through lower highs to the 0.8211 london low, where it is testing the 50% fib of the Asian rally off 0.8194 and the rising asia hl line. The softer-dollar tone from yesterday's NY slide still frames the session; RSI(14) at 42, no extreme.
Support: 0.82113, 0.82031, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82275, 0.82358, 0.8250
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 0.8211 london low and the asia hl line exposes 0.8203, then the 0.8194 asian low inside the 0.8191–0.8200 monthly-low zone
Close back above the 0.8227 lower high, then 0.8236, negates the London pullback and puts 0.8250 former supp in view
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read in the NY session
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce stalling · RSI 46 · price 0.82184
Lower highs from 0.8297; 0.8203–0.8236 range above the 0.8194 Asia low.
USD/CHF extended its three-session slide to an Asia low of 0.8194 as the softer dollar and fading Fed-hike bets weighed, then bounced to an Asia higher low at 0.8203. The pre-London push to the 0.8236 London high was rejected at London open, and price is back testing the London low near 0.8218, the 23.6% fib, with the lower-highs line intact.
Support: 0.82177, 0.82031, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82358, 0.8239, 0.8250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8236 London high and lower-highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read, with the 0.8239 Asia high and 0.8250 former support (former supp) next
Failure to hold the 0.8203 Asia HL exposes the 0.8194 Asia low and the 0.8191 monthly low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read, with Daly and Musalem later in NY hours
Higher lows since Asia low; London open rejected at 0.8236.
The slide from 0.8297 ran through NY and Asia hours as the dollar softened on US-Iran de-escalation. It bottomed at the 0.8194 session low, just above the 0.8191 monthly low, before carving higher lows. Early London brought a rejection at 0.8236, near the 38.2% fib of the decline. The pullback held the 0.8219 London low, and price sits between EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.8219, 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8236, 0.8250
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.8219 London low and the rising lows trendline brings the 0.8203 higher low and 0.8194 session low back into play
M15 close above the 0.8236 rejection high opens 0.8250 prior support, now overhead
US ECI 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Daly 16:00 UTC and Musalem 16:30 UTC on a December hike add NY-session event risk
07:31 UTC
Recovery from Asian low, stalling · RSI 53 · price 0.82217
Higher lows from 0.8194; London high rejected.
Asia flushed below 0.8200 to a 0.8194 Asian low as the dollar softened on Middle East de-escalation, then built higher lows with an Asia HL at 0.8203. Early London spiked to a 0.8236 London high and was rejected back to about 0.8220. That puts price between the 38.2% and fib 50% (0.8215) retracement of the Asian rebound, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 0.8215, 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8236, 0.8250
What it said to watch
Close below 0.8203 Asia HL breaks the higher-low chain and re-exposes the 0.8194 Asian low
Acceptance above the 0.8236 London high opens 0.8250, a former support now a flip level
US ECI 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Rebounding from Asia low, stalling at London open · RSI 57 · price 0.8226
HH/HL chain off 0.8194 sweep, London open rejection at 0.8236.
The third-day USD slide on US-Iran peace hopes carried the pair through 0.8200 in Asia to an asian low at 0.8194, a sweep that was reclaimed and followed by a HH/HL chain. The first London bar was rejected at 0.8236 (london high), and price is back at the 23.6% retrace near 0.8226, above the higher low at 0.8221.
Support: 0.8221, 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8236, 0.8246
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8221 higher low and the rising trendline breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 0.8203 swing low
A close back below the 0.8194 asian low turns the Asia sweep into a fresh lower low
An M15 close above the 0.8236 london high opens the 0.8246 asian high and the 0.8250 former support
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off Asian low · RSI 61 · price 0.82344
HH/HL chain from 0.8194, pressing the 0.8239 Asian high at London open.
The Asia slide on a softer dollar and US-Iran diplomacy hopes was rejected at 0.8194, just above the 0.8191–0.8200 monthly-low zone. Higher lows at 0.8203 and 0.8221 have formed a rising trendline, and price is pressing the 0.8239 Asian high into London open with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 0.8221, 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8239, 0.8250, 0.8257
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8239 asian high breaks the Asian range and opens 0.8250 old support (now resistance), then the 0.8257 thu ny low
Close below the trendline near 0.8221 breaks the higher-low chain, with the 0.8203 higher low next
Loss of the 0.8194 asian low re-exposes the 0.8191 monthly low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher lows off Asia low · RSI 66 · price 0.82291
HL chain from 0.8194, pressing Asia high.
Asia session swept below 0.8200 to a 0.8194 asia low on a softer dollar, then built a higher low at 0.8203 and climbed along rising support into the 0.8221 micro lows. Ahead of London open, price is pressing the 0.8239 asia high and EMA50 near 0.8230, with RSI(14) at 66 and the 0.8250 former support overhead.
Support: 0.8221, 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8239, 0.8250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8239 asia high opens the 0.8250 former support, now resistance
Break of 0.8221 micro lows and rising support shifts focus back to the 0.8203 higher low and 0.8194 asia low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 0.8194 asian low, capped at the 0.8228 asian high.
USDCHF slid from the post-GDP 0.8297 spike through NY and Asia as US-Iran diplomacy hopes drained haven USD demand, bottoming at the 0.8194 asian low. A higher-low chain along a rising trendline has since lifted price into the 0.8228 asian high just ahead of London open, about 30% back into the decline with the 38.2% fib at 0.8233 overhead.
Support: 0.82165, 0.82031, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82275, 0.82331, 0.8250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8228 asian high and the 0.8233 38.2% fib exposes 0.8250 former supp
Break of the 0.8217 higher low and the trendline reopens the 0.8203 swing low and 0.8194 asian low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Rebound from Asia low, higher lows forming · RSI 61 · price 0.82244
HH/HL recovery inside Asian range, capped near 50% retrace.
A late-NY flush through 0.8260 extended in the Asia session to the 0.8194 asian low as US-Iran de-escalation weighed on USD. Since then, rising lows at 0.8203, the 0.8217 swing low and the 0.8221 higher low have lifted price to a 0.8228 recent high near the 50% fib of the slide, with the asian high at 0.8239 and the 0.8250 round number above.
Support: 0.8221, 0.8217, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8228, 0.8239, 0.8250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8228 recent high and 0.8239 asian high extends the rebound toward the 0.8250 round number
Loss of the 0.8221 higher low and the rising lows trendline puts the 0.8217 swing low and 0.8194 asian low back in play
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read in NY hours
06:02 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off Asia low · RSI 60 · price 0.82246
HH/HL chain from 0.8194 false break, pressing Asian high.
USD's third-day slide on US-Iran de-escalation took USDCHF briefly below 0.8200 to a 0.8194 session low in Asia, a false break reversed within a bar. Higher lows at 0.8203 and the 0.8217 pullback low have lifted price back above the 61.8% fib of the 0.8239 swing high drop. Late in the Asia session it is pressing the 0.8228 Asian high, with the ema50 near 0.8230 just above.
Support: 0.82165, 0.82031, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82275, 0.8230, 0.8239
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8228 asian high and the ema50 near 0.8230 opens the 0.8239 swing high
Break of the 0.8217 pullback low and the rising support from 0.8194 would end the HH/HL chain, exposing the 0.8203 higher low
Loss of the 0.8194 session low would negate the false break below 0.8200
US ECI 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound in progress · RSI 63 · price 0.82257
Higher lows off 0.8194, pressing recovery high.
USD/CHF flushed to a 0.8194 session low in early Asia as the softer-dollar unwind extended, then printed a higher low at 0.8203. It is now retesting the 0.8228 recovery high from below. Price sits past the 61.8% retrace of the Asia drop, above the ema20 near 0.8218 but just under EMA50 around 0.8230, with RSI(14) at 63 and not stretched.
Support: 0.8218, 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8228, 0.8239, 0.8245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8228 recovery high exposes the 0.8239 prior high and the 0.8245 breakdown shelf from late NY
Loss of the 0.8218 ema20 and the rising lows line points back to the 0.8203 higher low, then the 0.8194 session low
London open in about 75 minutes, then US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher low at 0.8203 after the 0.8194 session low; push to 0.8227 is a minor higher high inside the Asian range.
USD/CHF extended the slide from yesterday's 0.8297 high in Asia, a false break of 0.8200 to a 0.8194 session low as the softer USD on US-Iran diplomacy drained the dollar bid. Price has since held a higher low at 0.8203 and is pressing a 0.8227 session high. The fib 38.2 at 0.8233, sitting with EMA50, is the next cap ahead of London open.
Support: 0.8219, 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8227, 0.8233, 0.8239
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8233 (fib 38.2) opens the 0.8239 swing high, the Asian range top
Failure to hold the 0.8219 prior high puts the 0.8203 higher low back in play; a break there resumes the downtrend toward the 0.8194 session low
US ECI 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC; a soft wage print would extend USD weakness, a hot one could reverse the slide
Fed's Daly 16:00 UTC and Musalem 16:30 UTC on December hike odds could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce from session low · RSI 60 · price 0.8224
Lower highs from the NY spike, then a higher low at 0.8203 in Asia.
USDCHF faded the post-GDP NY spike at 0.8297, gave up the 0.8262 ny shelf and printed a 0.8194 session low in Asia as the dollar softened on US-Iran de-escalation hopes. A higher low at 0.8203 has lifted price late in the Asia session to the 0.8225 fib 61.8 of the Asia drop. Price is above the 0.8217 range low but still below the 0.8239 asia high and EMA50.
Support: 0.8217, 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8225, 0.8239, 0.8262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8239 asia high clears the bounce ceiling and exposes the 0.8262 ny shelf
Rejection at the 0.8225 fib 61.8 with a break of the 0.8217 range low returns focus to the 0.8203 higher low and the rising trendline
Loss of the 0.8194 session low puts the 0.8191–0.8200 monthly-low zone in play and restores the lower-low sequence
London open in ~3h, then US ECI (12:30 UTC) and Chicago PMI (13:45 UTC), with Daly/Musalem later, could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce in late Asia · RSI 56 · price 0.82231
Lower highs from 0.8297; Asia higher low at 0.8203 lifting price toward 0.8233–0.8239.
The NY slide from 0.8297 extended to a session low at 0.8194 early in Asia as US-Iran peace hopes drained dollar demand. A higher low at 0.8203 has since lifted price to a bounce high at 0.8225, testing the 23.6% retracement with RSI(14) near 56. The 38.2% fib at 0.8233 and the Asia high at 0.8239 sit just overhead.
Support: 0.8217, 0.82031, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82245, 0.82333, 0.8239
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.8239 Asia high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts 0.8250 in view
Rejection at the 38.2% fib near 0.8233 keeps the bounce corrective
Loss of the 0.8217 pullback low and then the 0.8203 higher low reopens the 0.8194 session low
London open in ~2h may set a new session range
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound stalling · RSI 58 · price 0.8219
Lower highs from 0.8297; Asia flush to 0.8194 reclaimed, higher lows since.
Thursday's late NY drop extended through the Asia session as USD eased on US-Iran peace hopes. Price flushed below 0.8200 to a 0.8194 session low before buyers reclaimed the figure. The rebound stalled at 0.8223, near the 61.8% fib of the 0.8238–0.8194 leg, and price is compressing on higher lows from the 0.8203 swing low just above EMA20 ahead of London open.
Support: 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8223, 0.8238, 0.8257
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8223 rebound high opens the 0.8238 lower high, then the 0.8257 NY low
Break below the 0.8203 swing low exposes the 0.8194 session low and the 0.8200 figure
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from NY into Asia; higher low at 0.8203 off the 0.8194 low.
USD/CHF extended Thursday's NY slide through 0.8250 and wicked under 0.8200 to an asia low of 0.8194, as US-Iran peace hopes kept draining safe-haven USD demand. The late-Asia bounce has retraced about half of the 0.8239–0.8194 leg. A higher low at 0.8203 is holding below the 0.8223 session high, which sits on the 61.8% fib ahead of the London open.
Support: 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8223, 0.8239, 0.8250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8203 higher low reopens the 0.8194 asia low and the 0.8191 area
Break above the 0.8223 session high and 61.8% fib puts the 0.8239 asia high in play
Reclaim of broken 0.8250 support would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8297; first higher low at 0.8203 inside the Asian range.
The late-NY break of the 0.8257 range floor extended into Asia, matching the digest's safe-haven unwind in USD, and price printed a 0.8194 Asian low. The late-Asia rebound stalled at the 0.8223 rebound high, the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the 0.8239 Asian high. Price is now holding just under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 51, and the 0.8203 higher low is the only sign of stabilisation.
Support: 0.82031, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82226, 0.8239, 0.8257
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8203 higher low breaks the higher-low line and reopens the 0.8194 Asian low
M15 close above the 0.8223 rebound high clears the fib 61.8% and exposes the 0.8239 Asian high
Recovery of the 0.8257 range floor would undo the overnight range break
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read; a hot print is the main risk to the downtrend
London open in under 3h is the first test of the 0.8194–0.8239 Asian range
Lower highs from NY high 0.8297; higher low 0.8203 after 0.8194 sweep.
The late-NY breakdown from the 0.8257–0.8265 shelf extended in Asia to a session low at 0.8194 as USD softened for a third day on US-Iran peace hopes. The dip under the 0.8200 round number was bought quickly. Price has since put in a higher low at 0.8203 and is pressing the NY high downtrend line near 0.8223, the 61.8% fib of the Asian high-to-low leg, with RSI(14) neutral around 46.
Support: 0.8203, 0.8200, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8223, 0.8239, 0.8245
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.8223 61.8% fib keeps the NY high downtrend line intact
An M15 close above the 0.8239 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence; the 0.8245 breakdown level sits just above
A loss of the 0.8203 higher low reopens the 0.8194 session low and the 0.8200 round number
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Fed speakers Daly/Musalem could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound underway · RSI 48 · price 0.82213
Lower highs from 0.8297; sweep of 0.8200 then higher low at 0.8203.
USD/CHF extended the NY-session slide into Asia, sweeping below 0.8200 to the 0.8194 asian low before buyers stepped in. The drop fits the softer USD on US-Iran peace hopes. Late in the Asia session, price is testing the 0.8223 rebound high at the 61.8% of the Asia drop after a higher low at 0.8203. RSI(14) is neutral near 48 and price sits on EMA20.
Support: 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8223, 0.8239
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.8239 asian high reclaims the Asian range top and breaks the lower-high sequence
Rejection at the 0.8223 rebound high, the 61.8% retracement, keeps the downtrend intact
Failure to hold the 0.8203 higher low reopens the 0.8194 asian low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem later in NY could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain intact; higher low at 0.8203 forming a small base.
Mid-Asia session, the slide extended through 0.8200 to a 0.8194 session low before a fast reclaim, with USD offered on US-Iran peace hopes. A 0.8203 higher low and a twice-tested 0.8219 lower high now frame a tight base. That cap sits on ema20 and near the 61.8% of the Asia drop from the 0.8239 asian high.
Support: 0.82031, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82191, 0.8239
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8219 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 0.8239 asian high
Loss of the 0.8203 higher low puts the 0.8194 session low and the 0.8200 false break back in focus
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem later could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain since the 0.8297 NY high, Asia bounce capped.
USD/CHF extended the NY-afternoon slide through the Asia session, printing a 0.8194 Asian low before the bounce stalled at a 0.8219 lower high, under a descending trendline now near 0.8220. The dollar is on the back foot as US-Iran peace hopes drain safe-haven demand. The 0.8250 prior support has already given way, and RSI(14) at 34 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 0.8200, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82187, 0.8239, 0.8250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8219 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.8200 round number and the 0.8194 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 0.8239 Asian high, then 0.8250 prior support, would neutralise the selloff structure
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem later today could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after Asia flush · RSI 36 · price 0.82131
Lower highs since NY; tight 0.8210–0.8216 box below bounce high.
The NY-session slide extended into the Asia session as USD eased on fading Dec-hike odds and a safe-haven unwind. Price briefly broke the 0.8200 psych level to a 0.8194 session low, then snapped back to a 0.8219 bounce high. Late in Asia, price is compressing at 0.8210–0.8216, the 38.2–50% fib of the 0.8239–0.8194 leg, with RSI(14) at 36 and lower highs intact under the descending trendline.
Support: 0.8209, 0.8200, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8219, 0.8239
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8219 bounce high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain, with the 0.8239 swing high next
Loss of the 0.8209 range floor exposes the 0.8200 psych level and the 0.8194 session low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC, then Fed's Daly and Musalem, could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after Asia low · RSI 36 · price 0.8211
Lower highs and lower lows since the NY high; tight range after a bounce from 0.8194.
The late-NY break below 0.8250 extended through the Asia session to a 0.8194 session low, as USD gave back ground on fading Dec-hike odds. The dip briefly swept 0.8200 and snapped back to a 0.8219 bounce high, near the 50-62% retrace of the asia drop. Price is now compressing in a 0.8209 range low to 0.8217 band, below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 0.8209, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8219, 0.8239
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.8194 session low exposes the 0.8191 prior low and extends the lower-low chain
An M15 close above the 0.8219 bounce high and the 61.8% asia drop fib (0.8222) challenges the downtrend read; the 0.8239 asian high, also the prior-day low, sits above
Loss of the 0.8209 range low resolves the current consolidation lower
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem from 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after a rebound · RSI 37 · price 0.8212
Lower highs since 0.8297, tight base at 0.8210–0.8217.
Lower highs have stacked up since Thursday's post-GDP spike to 0.8297. As safe-haven USD demand unwound in Asia, the slide pushed under the 0.8200 round number to a 0.8194 session low, which was rejected in a sharp rebound to the 0.8219 bounce high. Price is now compressing at 0.8210–0.8217, near the 38.2% fib of the 0.8239 Asian high to 0.8194 leg, with RSI(14) near 37 and the descending tl overhead.
Support: 0.8200, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82187, 0.8239
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8200 round number reopens the 0.8194 session low and the 0.8191 low
Close above the 0.8219 bounce high and the descending tl near 0.8224 shifts focus to the 0.8239 asian high
London open in ~4.5h, then US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Daly/Musalem later, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since NY; false break below 0.8200 in Asia.
Lower highs and lower lows since yesterday's 0.8297 post-data spike. Asia extended the slide from the 0.8239 Asia high to a 0.8194 session low as USD softened on fading Dec-hike odds. The dip through the 0.8200 round number reversed fast, and price is idling near the 38.2% retrace under the 0.8219 bounce high.
Support: 0.8200, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82187, 0.8239
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8219 bounce high and 0.8239 Asia high breaks the lower-high sequence
Acceptance back below the 0.8200 round number and the 0.8194 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem later in NY could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia bounce stalling · RSI 40 · price 0.82147
Lower highs since late NY; NY range low broken, Asian low at 0.8194.
USD/CHF broke the 0.8257 NY range low in late NY. It extended the Asian drop from the 0.8239 Asian high as safe-haven USD demand faded, with sellers capping each lower high. Price rejected the 0.8194 session low just under the 0.8200 psych level. The rebound stalled at the 0.8219 bounce high near the 61.8% retrace, under the descending highs line, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.8200, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82187, 0.8239, 0.8257
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 0.8200 psych and the 0.8194 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8191 prior low
M15 close above the 0.8219 bounce high and the descending highs line opens the 0.8239 Asian high
Reclaim of the 0.8257 NY range low would invalidate the range break
US ECI 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem 16:00–16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows since the 0.8297 post-data spike; false break below 0.8200 in Asia.
Firm US GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC failed to lift USD/CHF. The spike to 0.8297 was rejected, and lower highs carried the pair through 0.8250 into the Asia session, where it briefly broke the 0.8200 round number to a 0.8194 session low. A sharp rebound bar stalled at the 0.8219 bounce high, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the 0.8239 Asian high to the session-low leg, with RSI(14) recovering to about 35 from sub-20.
Support: 0.8200, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82187, 0.82228, 0.8239
What it said to watch
Repeated closes below the 0.8200 round number and a break of the 0.8194 session low would extend the lower-low sequence
An M15 close above the 0.8219 bounce high and the 0.8223 prior low challenges the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
Rejection near the 61.8% retracement keeps the 0.8239 Asian high as the last lower high
US ECI at 12:30 UTC, then Fed's Daly at 16:00 and Musalem at 16:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia bounce off lows · RSI 28 · price 0.82044
Lower highs and lower lows since the NY high; NY range floor broken late session.
The post-GDP/PCE spike to 0.8297 was faded through NY hours. The slide broke the 0.8257 NY range floor late in the session, gapped lower at the daily open, then extended in Asia through the 0.8223 broken low and the 0.8200 round number to a session low at 0.8194. The move runs against the firm-USD backdrop. Price is holding just above 0.8200 with RSI(14) near 28 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 0.8200, 0.81936, 0.8191
Resistance: 0.82228, 0.8239
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8194 session low exposes the 0.8191 prior low
Recovery above the 0.8223 broken low reopens the 0.8239 swing high, near the 38.2% fib of the slide
US ECI at 12:30 UTC, then Fed's Daly and Musalem later Friday, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.8297 day high; Asia session breaking 0.8200.
Lower highs have held since the 0.8297 day high after the US data. The 20:00 UTC range break below 0.8257 extended through the Asia session, taking out the 0.8223 asia low and the 0.8200 round number under a descending trendline capped at the 0.8239 bounce high. RSI(14) near 21 is oversold, and price is pinned at the 0.8197 session low just above the 0.8191 prior low. The slide runs against the firm-USD digest, which points to CHF-side demand.
Support: 0.81974, 0.8191
Resistance: 0.8200, 0.82228, 0.8239
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8200 round number would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8191 prior low extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 0.8239 bounce high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
US ECI at 12:30 UTC, followed by Fed's Daly and Musalem later Friday, could materially shift this read
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, extended · RSI 23 · price 0.82114
Lower highs and lower lows since the NY data spike.
Sell leg from the 0.8297 post-GDP spike has printed a clean lower-high and lower-low chain. Late NY broke the 0.8257 ny range low, and Asia extended through the 0.8223 broken low to a 0.8211 session low despite the firm-USD data backdrop. RSI(14) near 23 is oversold, with the 0.8200 psych level just below and the Asian lower highs still capping at 0.8239.
Support: 0.8211, 0.8200, 0.8191
Resistance: 0.82228, 0.8239, 0.8257
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8239 lower high breaks the LH/LL chain
Reclaim of 0.8223 broken low would signal the sell leg stalling at the session low
Sustained trade below 0.8200 psych exposes the 0.8191 prior low
Retracement into 0.8257 ny range low would test the breakdown level
US ECI 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem later Friday could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Downtrend, extending in early Asia · RSI 31 · price 0.82214
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken NY range.
The post-GDP spike to 0.8297 in early NY faded despite the firm USD backdrop. Price then broke the 0.8257 NY range low at 20:00 UTC and slipped through 0.8250, which is also the 38.2% retrace of the post-NY selloff. Early Asia has printed a fresh session low at 0.8221 under a lower-highs line capped by the 0.8239 Asia high, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.82209, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8239, 0.8257
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8239 asia high breaks the lower-highs line and the downtrend read
Reclaim of the 0.8257 ny range low would turn the 20:00 UTC range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8221 session low exposes the 0.8200 round number, then the 0.8191 low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem later Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; small Asian range forming 0.8229–0.8239.
The slide from the 0.8297 spike high after the US data held even as GDP beat. Price broke the 0.8257 NY range low into the close and set a 0.8223 session low before Asia. The early-Asia bounce stalled at 0.8239, close to the 23.6% fib, leaving the asia high below the 0.8247 lower high. RSI(14) is near 38, not stretched.
Support: 0.82228, 0.8220
Resistance: 0.8239, 0.82465, 0.8257
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.8223 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8200 round number
M15 close above the 0.8247 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs trendline
A recovery back above the 0.8257 NY range low would mark the late-NY breakdown a false break
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia bounce · RSI 43 · price 0.82361
Lower highs from 0.8297; afternoon range broken lower, now basing above 0.8223.
USDCHF broke the 0.8257–0.8270 afternoon range at 20:00 UTC. It then lost broken 0.825 and printed a 0.8223 swing low after rollover, even with the USD tone firm on the GDP beat. The early Asia bounce is stalling at the 0.8238 bounce high, near the 38.2% retracement of the late drop, with price below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.82228, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.82376, 0.8250, 0.8257
What it said to watch
M15 close back above broken 0.825 would put the range low at 0.8257 back in play and weaken the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.8223 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8200 round number
Rejection at the 0.8238 bounce high and 38.2% keeps the bounce corrective
US ECI Q3 at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read