21:03 UTC
Sideways, contracting within multi-week range · RSI 44 · price 157.533
Lower high at 158.35 vs 158.60 range high, higher low at 156.96 vs 156.08 range low.
USDJPY has spent three weeks inside a 156.08 range low to 158.60 range high band. The lower high at 158.35 and the higher low at 156.96 are compressing it into a triangle-like coil around flat, intertwined EMAs. The post-BoJ pullback held near the 61.8% retracement of the 156.08–158.35 rally, and demand stepped in at 156.96 and again near the 157.12 post-boj low. Supply is capping rebounds under the 157.74 swing high as falling US yields offset the BoJ's hawkish hold. ATR(14) near 41 pips is well below the expansion during the drop to the range low, consistent with compression rather than trend extension.
Support: 157.12, 156.96, 156.08
Resistance: 157.74, 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 157.74 swing high reopens the 158.35 lower high and the falling resistance trendline
- Failure to hold the 156.96 higher low breaks the rising support trendline and exposes the 156.08 range low
- US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC, f/c 54.7) and Prices Paid could break the compression via yields
- BoJ Gov. Ueda speech (Nov 6) on December hike timing is the key JPY-side risk to the range read