Lower highs since 160.72 peak, basing above 156.00.
USDJPY has rolled over from the 160.72 high with two violent impulse drops carving lower highs and stabilising in a tight range between 156.00 and 157.30. Price is currently coiling just under the 157.30 prior high after recovering from the 155.03 flash low, with ATR(14) still elevated from the recent spikes. Both EMA20 and EMA50 sit overhead, framing the basing attempt as a counter-trend bounce within a broader downtrend.
Support: 156.02, 155.49, 155.03
Resistance: 157.30, 159.50
What it said to watch
H4 close above 157.30 prior high opens path to retest the 159.50 broken shelf
Loss of 156.00 swing low reopens 155.49 spike low and 155.03 flash low
US CPI later this week could materially shift this read
Pair was driven sharply lower from the 160.72 rejection top, with two impulsive sell-offs (the 159.59→155.55 cascade and the later flush to 155.03) cementing a downtrend on H4. Since then price has carved a tight consolidation between 156.20 and 157.30, with the EMA50 capping rallies and ATR(14) compressing from the post-flush extremes. Structure is corrective within a broader bearish leg until either side of the range gives way.
Support: 156.20, 155.50, 155.03
Resistance: 157.30, 157.92
What it said to watch
H4 close above 157.30 prior pivot opens path back toward the 157.92 swing high
Loss of 156.20 range low re-exposes the 155.50 swing low and 155.03 spike low
Yen intervention rhetoric (Takaichi/MoF) remains a tail risk that could override structure
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising after gap lower · RSI 38 · price 156.902
Lower highs since 160.72; basing above 155.50.
USDJPY remains in a clear downtrend since the violent gap lower from 160.54 to the 155-handle on Iran-related risk-off; price has since carved a tight consolidation between 156.02 and 157.30 for the last two weeks. The pair has failed to reclaim the post-gap high at 157.92, with lower highs printing into the current 156.90 area. ATR is elevated versus mid-April, reflecting the residual shock from the gap, while both EMA20 and EMA50 cap price from above.
Support: 156.02, 155.50, 155.03
Resistance: 157.30, 157.92
What it said to watch
H4 close above 157.30 prior pivot opens path to 157.92 post-gap high
Loss of 156.02 swing low exposes 155.50 gap low and the 155.03 wick low
Fresh Iran/Strait of Hormuz headlines or weekend risk-off gap could materially shift this read
US CPI Tuesday is the key macro catalyst inside the next 48h