Uptrend intact with higher highs and higher lows since early month, but price has stalled into a consolidation just below the 160.59 range high. The sharp dip to 159.54 was absorbed and recovered intraday, leaving USD/JPY pinned near the 160.00 intervention line into Tuesday's BoJ decision. ATR is moderate — neither extreme compression nor expansion as the market waits on the policy read.
Support: 160.00, 159.54
Resistance: 160.59, 160.69
What it said to watch
H4 close above 160.59 opens the path to the 160.69 spike high and intervention zone
Failure to hold 159.54 confirms a lower-low and breaks the higher-low sequence
BoJ rate decision Jun 16 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Grinding uptrend with higher lows intact since the early-month base near 158.50, but the advance has stalled below the 160.55-160.69 cap that aligns with the 160 intervention zone. Last session saw a sharp wick down to 159.54 before buyers reclaimed the 160 handle, leaving price coiling around 160.20 just under EMA20. ATR(14) is steady near 31 pips with no expansion yet — the structure is compressing into the BoJ decision.
Support: 159.54, 159.41
Resistance: 160.55, 160.69
What it said to watch
BoJ rate decision Jun 16 03:00 UTC is the dominant risk for this read
H4 close above 160.69 spike high opens continuation; intervention risk elevated at the 160 line
Failure to hold 159.41 range floor confirms a lower-low and breaks the higher-low sequence