USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Thursday, 18 June 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended after breakout · RSI 63 · price 161.288
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday open.
USDJPY has trended one-way higher since Monday's ~159.95 open, with the dominant leg arriving in the NY session as the hawkish Fed dot plot widened the policy gap against a yen pinned near two-year lows. Price broke 160.92 and ran to a fresh week high at 161.807 before a rejection trimmed it back to 161.29; RSI(14) sits in the low-60s and price holds above EMA20 near 161.05. The 161.685–161.807 zone is the immediate ceiling, with 160.80 marking the cited post-2024 high and intervention chatter area below.
Support: 161.05, 160.80
Resistance: 161.685, 161.807
What it said to watch
Sustained trade above 161.685 keeps the path open to the 161.807 week high
An H1 close back below EMA20 near 161.05 would break the higher-low sequence
160.80 is a flagged intervention zone — verbal or actual MoF/BoJ action is the dominant snap-back risk
National CPI and BoJ minutes (23:30/23:50 UTC) could shift the near-term read
23:02 UTC
Strong uptrend, extended · RSI 71 · price 161.288
Higher highs, breakout to 2-yr highs.
USDJPY has run from Monday's 159.95 open to fresh two-year highs, with the dominant leg coming through the NY session after Wednesday's hawkish Fed hold widened the policy gap against a cautious BoJ. Price held above EMA20 on every pullback this week and broke 160.92 on heavy momentum before spiking to 161.81 and easing back to 161.29. RSI(14) at ~70 flags the move as stretched after the vertical extension.
Support: 160.92, 159.95
Resistance: 161.81
What it said to watch
National CPI (23:30 UTC) and BoJ minutes (23:50 UTC) due imminently — either could shift this read
Price sits above the cited 160.80 intervention zone; verbal/actual MoF action is a sharp snap-back risk
H1 close back below 160.92 would negate the breakout and signal a lower high
22:02 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating · RSI 71 · price 161.381
Higher highs, fresh week high after breakout.
USDJPY broke out through the 160.80 prior high during the NY session and ran to a fresh week high at 161.81 before easing back to 161.38, with the dollar firm post-hawkish Fed and the yen pinned near two-year lows. Price holds well above EMA(20) and EMA(50) but RSI(14) at ~71 flags an overbought stretch after the impulse. The 161.00 psych line now sits below price as first support against the 160.80 breakout shelf.
Support: 161.00, 160.80, 160.57
Resistance: 161.807
What it said to watch
National CPI ex fresh food (23:30 UTC) and BoJ minutes (23:50 UTC) could shift this read within the next bars
Topside sits inside the 160-161 intervention zone — sharp snap-back risk on MoF/BoJ rhetoric
H1 close back below 160.80 negates the breakout and reopens the swing low at 160.57
22:02 UTC
Uptrend, fresh highs · RSI 70 · price 161.381
Breakout to two-year high, consolidating below.
USD/JPY ripped to a two-year high at 161.81 through the NY session, extending the Fed-BoJ divergence move after Wednesday's hawkish hold; price now consolidates just under it around 161.38. RSI is elevated after the impulse and price holds well above EMA(20), with this week's rising higher lows intact. The 160.80-161.00 intervention zone sits just below — Tokyo's verbal warnings have capped prior topside without naming levels.
Support: 161.00, 160.92, 160.80
Resistance: 161.81
What it said to watch
National CPI ex Fresh Food at 23:30 UTC today could shift the BoJ read
Intervention risk near 161 — verbal escalation could spark sharp short-covering
Loss of 160.92 would mark a lower high after the breakout
21:02 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating · RSI 71 · price 161.40
Breakout to fresh highs above 160.80.
USDJPY ground higher all week and then accelerated through the 160.80 prior high into the NY session, printing 161.81 on the hawkish Fed dot plot widening the policy gap. RSI(14) is stretched into overbought near 71 as the pair pulled back to 161.40 after the spike. The 160.80 breakout level now flips to first support.
Support: 160.93, 160.80
Resistance: 161.81
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 160.93 / 160.80 would negate the breakout
Japan CPI ex-fresh-food at 23:30 UTC could shift this read
Intervention risk above 160 raises odds of a sharp snapback
21:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 71 · price 161.40
Higher highs since Monday, fresh post-2024 highs.
USDJPY has trended steadily higher since Monday's open near 160.12, accelerating through the 160.80 prior high into the NY session as the Fed's hawkish hold widened the policy gap against a cautious BoJ. The latest bar swept 161.81 then rejected back to 161.40, the first notable wick after the run. Price holds well above EMA20 with RSI(14) stretched near 70.
Support: 160.92, 160.80, 160.12
Resistance: 161.81
What it said to watch
National CPI ex Fresh Food at 23:30 UTC and BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Intervention risk persists with price above 160.80 — area to watch for a sharp snapback
Loss of 160.92 bar low would mark the first lower-low since the breakout
20:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into highs · RSI 71 · price 161.454
Higher highs/higher lows, fresh week high.
USDJPY broke the 160.80 prior two-year high during the NY session and impulsed to a fresh week high of 161.81 on the hawkish-Fed/wide-differential theme, with the yen left offered after the BoJ's cautious 1.0% hike. Price holds well above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) elevated near 71; the final bar wicked to 161.81 and closed back at 161.45, a rejection at the highs. The 160.80 breakout level now flips to first support.
Support: 160.80, 160.00
Resistance: 161.81
What it said to watch
National CPI ex Fresh Food at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back below 160.80 negates the breakout
Intervention risk persists while price holds above 160.00
20:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 74 · price 161.454
Higher highs into fresh multi-year highs.
USDJPY accelerated through the prior 160.80 high into the NY session, tagging 161.81 as the Fed's hawkish hold widened the policy gap and kept the yen offered. The rally then pulled back to 161.43 on the last bar, leaving 160.92 as the nearest swing low. RSI(14) is stretched above 70, consistent with the impulsive leg but signalling extension.
Support: 160.92, 160.80
Resistance: 161.81
What it said to watch
National CPI ex Fresh Food at 23:30 UTC plus BoJ minutes could shift this read sharply
Sitting in the 160.00-160.80 intervention zone — sudden spike-downs would mark short-covering
Loss of 160.92 swing low would mark the first lower-low since the breakout
USDJPY spent most of the week pinned in a 160.00–160.50 range before clearing 160.80 during the NY session, with the hawkish-Fed dollar bid driving an impulsive leg to a fresh high at 161.73. Price sits well above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) is stretched into overbought near 77, confirming the breakout but leaving the move extended. The prior 160.92 breakout level now flips to first support.
Support: 160.92, 160.50, 160.00
Resistance: 161.73
What it said to watch
National CPI ex Fresh Food at 23:30 UTC and BoJ minutes could shift the JPY read sharply
Intervention risk persists above 160.00 — sudden snapback toward the psych line possible
H1 close back below 160.92 would negate the breakout read
19:02 UTC
Uptrend, strong momentum · RSI 81 · price 161.72
Fresh breakout to post-2024 highs.
USD/JPY spent most of the week pinned in a 160.10-160.80 range before breaking through the 160.80 two-year high into the NY session, printing fresh post-2024 highs at 161.73. The thrust follows the hawkish Fed hold widening the US-Japan policy gap, and RSI(14) is now stretched into overbought territory. Price is extended well above EMA20 and EMA50, both rising in support.
Support: 160.80
Resistance: 161.73
What it said to watch
National CPI ex Fresh Food at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Intervention risk is elevated above 160 and can trigger sharp two-way moves
Failure to hold the 160.80 breakout level reopens the prior range
18:02 UTC
Strong uptrend, extended · RSI 78 · price 161.448
Breakout to fresh highs above 160.80.
USDJPY ripped through the 160.80 prior two-year high into fresh post-2024 highs through the NY session, the impulse extending from a 160.20 base after the hawkish Fed widened the policy gap. RSI(14) is stretched near 78 and price sits well above EMA20/EMA50, with the session high at 161.46 the only nearby cap. Pair is now trading inside the flagged 160.00–160.80 intervention zone's upper extension, so two-way risk is elevated.
Support: 160.80
Resistance: 161.46
What it said to watch
National CPI ex Fresh Food at 23:30 UTC could shift the read
Intervention risk active above 160 — sharp snapbacks possible
H1 close back below 160.80 negates the breakout
18:02 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating · RSI 74 · price 161.448
Higher highs into fresh multi-year high.
USDJPY broke out of the 160.50-160.95 consolidation that held since Monday and ripped to a fresh post-2024 high of 161.46 during the NY session, with JPY offered after the Fed's hawkish hold widened the policy gap. RSI(14) is stretched into the low-70s as price runs well clear of EMA(20), confirming the impulse rather than divergence. The 160.85 breakout base is the nearest reference back into the prior range.
Support: 160.85, 160.50
Resistance: 161.46
What it said to watch
National CPI ex Fresh Food at 23:30 UTC could shift the JPY read materially
Intervention risk flagged above 160 — sharp snapback possible from the 161 area
H1 close back below 160.85 negates the breakout and returns price to the prior range
USDJPY broke clear of the 160.80 prior two-year high during the NY session, accelerating to 161.45 as the hawkish Fed re-pricing keeps the yen pinned at post-2024 lows. Price has held above EMA20 and EMA50 since Monday, and the late impulse leaves RSI(14) stretched into overbought near 78. The 160.80 breakout level now sits as the nearest reference below.
Support: 160.80
Resistance: 161.50
What it said to watch
National CPI ex Fresh Food at 23:30 UTC could shift the read
Intervention risk elevated above 160 — sharp reversals possible
H1 close back below 160.80 would negate the breakout
161.50 round number — area to watch for rejection or break
USDJPY broke the 160.80 two-year high into the NY session and accelerated to 161.45, extending the week's one-way hawkish-Fed repricing against a cautious BoJ. Price sits well above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) stretched into overbought, the dominant move coming on the NY-session surge through 160.92. Prior range top at 160.92 now flips to first support.
Support: 160.92, 160.58
What it said to watch
National CPI ex Fresh Food at 23:30 UTC and BoJ minutes 23:50 UTC could shift the read
Intervention risk above 160 — a sharp spike-down through 160.58 would signal short-covering
Loss of 160.92 breakout level would put the move back into the prior range
16:02 UTC
Strong uptrend, extended · RSI 73 · price 161.246
Breakout to fresh highs, higher highs/lows.
USD/JPY pushed through the 160.80 two-year high into the NY session and extended to 161.37, with JPY pinned post-Fed hawkish hold and the BoJ's cautious 1.0% hike doing little to support the yen. Price sits well above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) into overbought near 73, reflecting the one-way grind. The prior 160.85 breakout zone is now the first reference on any pullback.
Support: 160.85, 160.00
What it said to watch
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC and BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Intervention risk above 160.00 — area to watch for sharp short-covering snapbacks
Loss of 160.85 would signal failure of the breakout
USDJPY cleared the 160.80 two-year high and ran to 161.37 in the late NY session, extending the hawkish-Fed-driven dollar bid that has dominated all week. Price sits well above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) pushed into overbought territory after the impulsive breakout. The prior 160.80-160.92 ceiling now sits as the breakout base.
Support: 160.92, 160.80
Resistance: 161.37
What it said to watch
National CPI ex Fresh Food at 23:30 UTC tonight could shift the JPY read
Intervention risk above 160 — a sharp spike-down would invalidate the breakout continuation
H1 close back below 160.92 breakout base would signal a false break
15:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended after breakout · RSI 61 · price 160.872
Higher highs, sitting near week high.
USDJPY opened Monday near 160.24, dipped to 159.79, then ground higher all week before the hawkish Fed hold triggered a clean breakout through 160.50 into the two-year-high zone. Price now sits at 160.87, holding above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cycling in the 55-65 band; the 160.948 week high has capped the latest push. The advance is squarely in the 160.00-160.80 intervention/tolerance zone repeatedly flagged on the yen side.
Support: 160.47, 160.184
Resistance: 160.948, 161.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 160.95 week high opens path toward 161.00 round number
Loss of 160.47 breakout lvl would mark a failed continuation
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC and intervention risk above 160 could sharply shift this read
15:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended near highs · RSI 66 · price 160.872
Higher highs, breakout above prior range.
USDJPY broke the 160.20 range that capped most of the week and accelerated into the NY session yesterday after the hawkish Warsh-led FOMC widened the policy gap, printing a fresh post-2024 high at 160.948. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) elevated near 66; the prior range top at 160.20 has flipped to support and the 160.50 breakout shelf has held on pullbacks. Upside is grinding rather than impulsive as the 161.00 psych level and intervention fears above 160 cap momentum.
Support: 160.50, 160.20, 160.00
Resistance: 160.948, 161.00
What it said to watch
National CPI ex Fresh Food at 23:30 UTC could shift this read
Tokyo intervention risk above 160 raises snapback potential toward 160.00
H1 close back below 160.50 breakout would reopen the 160.20 range top
Sustained break of 160.948 week high opens the path to 161.00 psych
14:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 71 · price 160.881
Higher highs, fresh post-2024 high.
USDJPY broke higher through the NY session after the hawkish Fed hold reopened the rate-differential trade, with JPY pinned at post-2024 lows. Price has cleared the 160.80 intervention zone and is probing the 160.948 week high, holding well above EMA20 with RSI(14) stretched near 70. The advance has been one-directional since the breakout, with shallow pullbacks finding the rising support line.
Support: 160.60
Resistance: 160.948, 160.80
What it said to watch
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC could shift the BoJ read
H1 close below 160.60 breaks the rising-low structure
Acceptance above 160.948 opens fresh post-2024 high territory
14:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended into highs · RSI 71 · price 160.881
Higher highs since Wednesday breakout.
USDJPY broke higher through the NY session after the hawkish Fed hold reopened the rate-differential trade against JPY, clearing the prior 160.50 shelf and printing a fresh post-2024 high at 160.95. Price holds well above EMA20/50 with RSI(14) stretched near 70, and the 160.80 prior high now caps as the marked intervention-rhetoric zone. Each pullback this week has found support at progressively higher lows.
Support: 160.80, 160.57
Resistance: 160.95
What it said to watch
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC tonight could shift this read
Sustained trade above 160.80 keeps intervention-headline risk live
H1 close back below 160.57 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence
13:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended into highs · RSI 67 · price 160.881
Higher highs, fresh breakout above range.
USD/JPY broke out of its mid-week 160.20–160.50 range during the NY session, accelerating to a fresh post-2024 high of 160.948 after the hawkish Fed hold powered the dollar broadly higher. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) elevated near 67, and the 160.475 breakout level has so far held as support. Authorities' verbal intervention warnings above 160.00 are the main cap on this advance, not fundamentals.
Support: 160.475, 160.20
Resistance: 160.948, 160.80
What it said to watch
H1 close above 160.948 week high opens path to the 160.80+ extension
Loss of 160.475 breakout would signal a failed break and retest of the range
Japan National CPI 23:30 UTC could shift the read on any JPY support
13:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended at highs · RSI 69 · price 160.881
Higher highs, fresh post-2024 high.
USD/JPY pushed to a fresh post-2024 high near 160.95 into the NY session after the hawkish Fed hold widened US-JPY rate divergence, with the breakout base near 160.50 holding through the prior consolidation. Price sits above the H1 EMA20 (~160.65) and EMA50, and RSI(14) is stretched into overbought territory after the latest leg. The week high at 160.95 and the 161.00 round number are the immediate area to watch for rejection or break.
Support: 160.65, 160.50
Resistance: 160.95, 161.00
What it said to watch
Japan National CPI tonight 23:30 UTC could shift this read
Intervention risk escalates the further price holds above 160.00
H1 close back below 160.50 breaks the rising structure off the breakout base
12:01 UTC
Uptrend, fresh highs · RSI 69 · price 160.905
Higher highs, breakout extension.
USD/JPY accelerated into fresh post-2024 highs after the hawkish Fed hold widened the policy gap, spiking through 160.50 yesterday's NY session and grinding to 160.948. Price holds above EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 69, and the 160.80 intervention zone — previous resistance — is now acting as a floor. The leg is stretched but structure remains constructive while higher lows hold.
Support: 160.80, 160.50
Resistance: 160.948
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below 160.50 negates the breakout extension
MoF/BoJ verbal action near the 160.80 intervention zone could trigger a sharp reversal
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDJPY broke out into the NY session yesterday, clearing the 160.50 range and pushing to a fresh week high at 160.95, with the hawkish-Fed-vs-cautious-BoJ policy gap doing the driving. Price now sits in the 160.80 intervention zone with RSI(14) stretched into overbought above 70, holding well above both EMAs. The week's prior base at 159.73 marks the floor of the dominant impulse.
Support: 160.80, 160.50, 159.73
Resistance: 160.95
What it said to watch
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC could shift this read sharply
Price parked in the 160.80 intervention zone — area to watch for verbal MoF response or stall
H1 close back below 160.50 would negate the breakout and return price into range
USDJPY cleared 160.50 in the NY session yesterday on the hawkish-hold Fed repricing and has pushed to a fresh 2-year high at 160.95, holding well above EMA20/EMA50 throughout the week. After consolidating 160.50–160.75 overnight, a renewed London leg drove the pair into the 161.00 psych zone with RSI elevated near 68. Price now sits inside the 160.00–160.80 area authorities have flagged for intervention risk.
Support: 160.47
Resistance: 160.95, 161.00
What it said to watch
Japan CPI ex fresh food at 23:30 UTC could shift the BoJ-path read
Proximity to 160.00–160.80 intervention zone raises two-way risk
H1 close below 160.47 breakout level breaks the rising structure
Failure to clear 161.00 psych keeps the high capped
11:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum strong · RSI 71 · price 160.905
Higher highs, fresh 2-yr highs.
USD/JPY has trended higher all week, breaking to fresh two-year highs near 160.95 after the hawkish FOMC reframing revived dollar demand. The decisive leg came in yesterday's NY session, clearing the 160.20 congestion before extending, and pullbacks have held the rising trendline off Monday's 159.73 low. RSI(14) is elevated near 71 with price stretched well above EMA20.
Support: 160.49, 160.20, 159.73
Resistance: 160.95, 161.00
What it said to watch
Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food at 23:30 UTC could shift this read
Price sits in the 160.00+ intervention zone — elevated MoF action risk near the 161.00 psych level
H1 close back below the 160.49 breakout area would break the rising structure
USDJPY broke out through 160.50 into the NY session and is now pressing the 160.81 cycle high, the highest since July 2024, after the Fed's hawkish hold revived the dollar against a contained yen. Price holds well above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) elevated near 68, reflecting one-directional momentum since the week's 159.73 low. Demand has consistently capped pullbacks at the rising sequence of higher lows.
Support: 160.50
Resistance: 160.81
What it said to watch
Japan CPI at 23:30 UTC and BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC could shift the read
Proximity to 160.81 keeps MoF intervention risk elevated — area to watch for a sharp rejection
H1 close back below 160.50 would break the breakout structure
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, fresh cycle high · RSI 67 · price 160.813
Higher highs and higher lows, breakout extension.
USD/JPY pushed to a fresh cycle high at 160.81 after a sharp NY-session breakout above 160.50 yesterday, the dollar firm on the hawkish FOMC hold while the BoJ's 1.0% hike failed to support the yen. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI elevated near 67, and the 160.50 breakout shelf is now the nearest support. The 160.81 cycle high sits inside the 160.00+ intervention zone — an area to watch for rejection or extension.
Support: 160.50, 160.20
Resistance: 160.81, 161.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 160.81 opens the path toward the 161.00 psych level
Failure to hold 160.50 negates the breakout and reopens 160.20
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC and elevated MoF intervention risk near 160.80 could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Uptrend, pressing week high · RSI 64 · price 160.792
Higher highs into intervention zone after FOMC breakout.
USD/JPY ripped above 160 on the hawkish-hold FOMC, the dominant move of the week landing in the NY session as the pair jumped from 160.20 to 160.73 in two bars. Price has since coiled in a 160.53–160.75 band and is now retesting the 160.794 week high, with RSI(14) holding the low-60s above a rising EMA(20). The 160.50–160.79 zone is the repeatedly-flagged intervention tolerance band.
Support: 160.53, 160.20
Resistance: 160.794, 161.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 160.794 opens the path toward the 161.00 psych level
National CPI ex Fresh Food at 23:30 UTC could shift this read on next-hike pricing
Verbal/actual intervention risk near 161 — any spike lower would break the higher-low sequence
USD/JPY accelerated through 160.50 on yesterday's hawkish-hold FOMC spike during NY hours, lifting the pair into the 160.75 intervention zone. Price has held above EMA20 since that break and is printing fresh week highs near 160.79 with RSI(14) around 65. The advance sits squarely in the official-pushback band repeatedly flagged this week.
Support: 160.50
Resistance: 160.794, 161.00
What it said to watch
National CPI ex Fresh Food at 23:30 UTC could revive BoJ-hike pricing and pressure the pair off 160.75
Verbal or actual MOF/BoJ intervention near 161.00 would trigger sharp downside
Loss of 160.50 would negate the breakout and put the week range back in play
Higher highs since Tuesday, paged into a tight range under the week high.
USD/JPY drove above the 160.50 zone in yesterday's NY session after the hawkish FOMC dot shift, spiking to a 160.794 week high before settling into a tight 160.55-160.70 band. Price holds above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling around 60, and sits squarely in the 160.00+ intervention zone. The dominant move of the week was that single-session post-Fed impulse; everything since has been digestion.
Support: 160.50, 160.00
Resistance: 160.794, 161.00
What it said to watch
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC could re-rate BoJ hike bets and shift this read
Official intervention risk near and above the 160.50 zone is the key asymmetry up here
A close back below 160.50 negates the breakout and reopens 160.00
A close above 160.794 opens the path to 161.00
08:01 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near highs · RSI 58 · price 160.612
Post-breakout consolidation above 160.50.
USD/JPY ripped through 160.50 into a 160.79 week high during NY hours yesterday as Warsh's hawkish FOMC dot path lifted the dollar and overwhelmed the BoJ's cautious hike. Since that impulse price has stalled, holding a tight 160.53–160.70 band just above the 160.50 intervention zone with RSI(14) cooling off the spike. Price remains above EMA(20) and EMA(50), which pullbacks have respected through the week.
Support: 160.50, 160.115, 160.00
Resistance: 160.794, 161.00
What it said to watch
National CPI ex Fresh Food at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Close above 160.79 week high opens the path to the 161.00 psych level
Failure to hold 160.50 reopens the 160.115 swing low and 160.00 intervention line
Intervention rhetoric near 160.50 remains a known asymmetric risk
Higher highs since Monday, range top after FOMC break.
USDJPY opened the week near 160.09 and ranged through Tuesday and Wednesday before the FOMC hawkish hold drove a sharp NY-session spike to 160.794, the week high. Price has since consolidated in a tight 160.55–160.70 band, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) easing back toward the mid-50s after the impulse. The pair sits inside the cited 160.50–160.73 intervention zone, capping conviction on continuation.
Support: 160.50, 160.20, 160.092
Resistance: 160.794, 160.73, 161.00
What it said to watch
Japan National CPI ex-fresh-food at 23:30 UTC plus BoJ minutes could materially shift this read
H1 close above 160.794 opens the path toward 161.00
Loss of 160.50 session pivot exposes EMA(20) near 160.20
160.50+ intervention zone risks sharp short-covering spikes lower
USD/JPY ground sideways in a 160.00–160.50 range from Monday before the hawkish Fed hold sparked a clean breakout, spiking to 160.79 in the NY session yesterday. Price is now consolidating above the 160.50 breakout level with RSI(14) cooling off its post-FOMC peak into the high-50s. Both EMA(20) and EMA(50) sit below price, tracking the move higher, though intervention talk near 160.50+ frames the upper zone.
Support: 160.50, 160.00
Resistance: 160.79, 161.00
What it said to watch
Loss of 160.50 breakout level reopens the prior 160.00–160.50 range
Close above 160.79 week high exposes the 161.00 round number
Japan National CPI tonight 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USD/JPY spent most of the week pinned in a 160.00–160.45 range before the hawkish FOMC under Warsh sent the dollar bid, breaking above the 160.50 intervention zone and surging to a 160.79 week high. Price has since settled into a tight hold just above the breakout, with RSI(14) easing off its peak and price holding above EMA20/EMA50. The 160.50–160.79 band is the active battleground after the impulse.
Support: 160.50
Resistance: 160.79, 161.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below 160.50 would negate the breakout and reopen the prior range
Push through 160.79 exposes the 161.00 psych level but moves deeper into the intervention zone — MoF verbal/actual risk rises
US Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could materially shift the USD leg of this read
USDJPY broke above the 160.50 intervention zone on the hawkish FOMC repricing under Warsh, spiking to a week high at 160.79 in the NY session yesterday. Price has since coiled tightly between 160.55 and 160.70 with RSI(14) cooling off overbought, holding well above EMA20 and EMA50. The 160.50 breakout level is now acting as the near-term floor.
Support: 160.50, 160.20
Resistance: 160.79, 161.00
What it said to watch
Loss of 160.50 spike base would negate the breakout read and reopen 160.20
Close above 160.79 week high exposes 161.00 psych but pushes deeper into the intervention zone
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Broke 160.50 range cap on FOMC, consolidating above.
USDJPY spent most of the week pinned in a 160.00-160.50 band before the hawkish Warsh-led FOMC and dot-plot lift jolted it higher yesterday, spiking to a 160.79 week high. Price has since settled into a tight consolidation above the old 160.50 cap with RSI(14) cooling from the spike, holding above both EMAs. The 160.73 area marks the edge of the official intervention zone, capping the latest push.
Support: 160.50, 160.00
Resistance: 160.73, 160.79
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 160.50 negates the breakout and re-opens the range
Sustained move above 160.73 enters the intervention zone — MoF verbal risk rises
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
05:01 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating after breakout · RSI 58 · price 160.593
Range broken upside, holding above prior top.
Price spent most of the week pinned in the 160.00–160.50 zone before a sharp NY-session impulse cleared 160.50 and tagged 160.794, with USD bid post-hawkish FOMC and a hot retail sales print while JPY stayed soft. Since that spike H1 has consolidated 160.55–160.70 above the broken range top, RSI(14) easing back toward 58 as momentum cools. The 160.73/160.794 area has capped follow-through, and this whole zone sits inside the flagged intervention region.
Support: 160.50, 160.00
Resistance: 160.73, 160.794, 161.00
What it said to watch
Sustained move above 160.794 exposes 161.00 but enters intervention zone — MoF risk rises
H1 close back below 160.50 negates the breakout and returns price into the prior range
US Jobless Claims + Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDJPY ground sideways in a 160.00-160.45 band from Monday's open before breaking higher into the NY session yesterday, popping to 160.79 as the hawkish Warsh-led FOMC and hot US retail sales firmed the dollar. Price now consolidates around 160.58, holding above EMA20 and the prior 160.50 intervention zone that capped the range top, with RSI cycling near 61. The move is sitting inside MoF-watch territory above 160.50.
Support: 160.50, 160.40
Resistance: 160.79, 161.00
What it said to watch
Hold above 160.50 keeps the breakout intact; an H1 close back below reverts to the prior range
Push above 160.79 week high opens the path toward the 161.00 psych level — intervention risk elevated here
Japan National CPI (Thu 23:30 UTC) and BoJ minutes could materially shift this read
Higher highs into week high, holding above broken 160.50.
USDJPY ripped through the 160.50 intervention zone during the NY session yesterday after the hawkish Warsh-led FOMC and hot US retail sales, printing a week high at 160.79. Price has since cooled into a 160.55-160.70 range, holding above the broken 160.50 level with RSI(14) easing off the spike but staying above 50. EMA(20) has tracked the week's higher-lows and now sits near 160.40 as a rising base.
Support: 160.50, 160.40, 160.20
Resistance: 160.79, 161.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 160.79 opens the path toward 161.00
Loss of 160.50 negates the breakout and exposes the 160.20 prior range
Above 160.50 keeps MoF intervention risk in play
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDJPY broke out of the 160.00-160.50 range during the NY session after a hawkish FOMC and hot US retail sales lifted the dollar, tagging a week high at 160.79. Price now holds above EMA20 and EMA50, consolidating in a 160.55-160.70 band with the former 160.50 intervention line flipping to support. RSI(14) sits in the low 60s, leaving room before stretched.
Support: 160.50
Resistance: 160.79
What it said to watch
A close back below 160.50 would negate the breakout and return price into the prior range
MoF intervention risk is elevated above the 160.50 zone and could force sharp two-way moves
Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food at 23:30 UTC could shift this read materially
USD/JPY tore through the 160.50 intervention zone during the NY session on the hawkish FOMC/Warsh read, printing a week high at 160.794 before settling. Price holds above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooling from the spike highs back toward 60. Range has compressed to 160.55-160.70 as the move digests, with the broken 160.50 level now acting as the floor.
Support: 160.50
Resistance: 160.794, 161.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 160.50 returns price into the intervtn zone and weakens the breakout
Push above 160.794 week high opens the path toward 161.00
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDJPY ground sideways in a 160.00-160.50 band most of the week before breaking higher during the NY session as a hawkish Warsh-led FOMC and a hot US retail print bid the dollar, spiking to a 160.79 session high. Price is now consolidating 160.53-160.75, holding above the prior range top and clear of EMA20/EMA50. RSI(14) cooled from the breakout spike but stays above 55.
Support: 160.50
Resistance: 160.79, 161.00
What it said to watch
Close above 160.79 session high opens the path to 161.00
Trade sits in the 160.50 intervention zone — MoF verbal intervention risk above it
Failure to hold 160.50 returns price into the prior range
Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food 23:30 UTC could shift the read
USDJPY broke through the 160.50 intervention zone during yesterday's NY session, spiking to a week high at 160.79 after the hawkish FOMC and higher dot-plot drained rate-cut bets. Price has since consolidated in the 160.53-160.75 band, holding above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) cooling from the spike but still mid-60s. The prior range top at 160.20 has flipped to support after the breakout.
Support: 160.50, 160.20
Resistance: 160.73, 160.79
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 160.50 would put price back inside the prior range and negate the breakout
A push above 160.79 week high risks MoF verbal intervention given the 160.00-160.50 zone
Japan National CPI 23:30 UTC and Fed-speak could shift this read
USDJPY ground sideways in the 160.00-160.50 band most of the week before a sharp NY-session breakout lifted price to 160.79, with the hawkish FOMC hold and a strong US retail sales beat doing the work. Price now holds above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) pushing toward 66 after the impulse. The prior 160.50 intervention-band ceiling has flipped to the immediate floor.
Support: 160.50, 160.00
Resistance: 160.79, 161.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 160.50 negates the breakout read
161.00 region — area to watch for rejection or break, intervention risk on breach above 160.00 band
Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
01:01 UTC
Uptrend, fresh breakout · RSI 65 · price 160.68
Range break to new week high.
USDJPY spent most of the week pinned in a 159.79–160.50 band before clearing the prior cap at 160.50 in the NY session, printing a week high at 160.79 as the hawkish Warsh FOMC and a retail-sales beat kept the USD bid. Price now holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50) and is consolidating just under the highs, with RSI(14) cycling in the low-60s. The 160.50 breakout level is the immediate reference on any pullback.
Support: 160.50, 160.20, 159.79
Resistance: 160.79, 161.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 160.79 opens the path to the 161.00 psych level
Failure to hold 160.50 returns price into the prior range toward 160.20
160.00/160.50 remains a flagged intervention zone for MoF/BoJ
US Jobless Claims and Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD read
USDJPY coiled inside the 160.00-160.50 band all week before the hawkish FOMC dot-plot repricing and hot retail sales drove a clean break through 160.50 into the NY session, printing a 160.79 week high. Price now consolidates near 160.60 above EMA20/50 with RSI holding in the mid-60s. The 160.00-160.50 zone, repeatedly flagged for intervention risk, now flips to the first support shelf below.
Support: 160.50, 160.00
Resistance: 160.79, 161.00
What it said to watch
Loss of 160.50 puts price back inside the prior range and negates the breakout
Sustained move above 160.79 opens the path toward the 161.00 psych level
Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and intervention risk above 160.00 could shift this read