21:02 UTC
Sideways, higher lows inside a capped range · RSI 45 · price 157.975
Three-week range 157.50–159.05 with rising lows compressing toward the top.
USDJPY has held a 157.50–159.05 range for three weeks. The range floor at 157.55 held twice this week, and lows have stepped higher from the 156.38 window low and the 156.95 swing low, while the 158.75 prior high and the 159.00 range top capped every rally. The week's hot US PPI and retail sales failed to lift the pair, and hawkish BoJ messaging failed to break it lower. Price sits just under both EMAs, with the latest bounce stalling near the 158.25 fib 50% of the 158.95→157.55 pullback. ATR(14) near 38 pips is well below early-window readings, a compression consistent with a pending range break.
Support: 157.55, 156.95, 156.38
Resistance: 158.25, 158.75, 159.00
What it said to watch
- H4 close below the 157.55 range floor breaks the rising-low sequence and exposes the 156.95 swing low
- Sustained hold above the 158.25 fib 50% reopens the 158.75 prior high and the 159.00 range top
- Approach to the 159.00 range top raises MoF verbal-intervention risk, which has capped prior tests
- Japan Sep National CPI (Oct 22, 23:30 UTC, ex-fresh food f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
- US housing data Tue and S&P Global PMIs Fri can move USD, given its fading response to strong data
- A break of the rising-lows trendline would end the compression structure