Higher highs and higher lows since the 152.89 swing low.
Higher-low structure has held since the 152.89 swing low, with dips holding a rising trendline off 153.24 and 156.58. Price has retraced about 80% of the early-month drop from the 160.39 sept high, driven by hawkish Fed pricing, blowout US PMIs and 10y yields above 5%. The latest leg cleared the 158.40 prior high and is testing the 159.03 week high. ATR(14) near 39 pips is well below the early-month selloff, pointing to an orderly grind rather than an expanding trend, with the psych 160 area overhead where intervention risk sits.
Support: 158.40, 157.80, 156.68
Resistance: 159.03, 160.39
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 158.40 prior high would mark a failed breakout
Break of the rising trendline and the 157.80 higher low would end the higher-low sequence and expose the fib 38.2 near 156.68
Approach to psych 160 and the 160.39 sept high brings MoF intervention risk into play
Fri Williams, US Durable Goods and UoM inflation expectations, then Hammack, could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into resistance · RSI 71 · price 158.925
Higher highs and higher lows since the 152.89 swing low.
USDJPY has printed higher highs and higher lows from the 152.89 early-month low, with dips holding at 156.58 and 157.80 along a rising trendline of higher lows. Price has cleared the 158.40 breakout lvl to a recent high at 159.03, about 78.6% of the way back through the 160.39–152.89 decline. The leg is driven by USD strength on blowout PMIs and US yields above 5%. EMA20 sits above EMA50 and price trades above both. RSI near 71 is stretched, and ATR(14) around 41 pips is well below the early-month selloff regime.
Support: 158.40, 157.80, 156.58
Resistance: 159.03, 160.39
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 158.40 breakout lvl would turn the push into a failed-break read
Loss of the higher-lows trendline and the 157.80 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence; 156.58 higher low is next structural support
Approach to psych 160 and the 160.39 sep high carries MoF intervention risk that has capped this area before
Fri Durable Goods, UoM inflation expectations and Williams/Hammack remarks could materially shift US yields and this read
13:02 UTC
Uptrend, higher highs and higher lows from the 152.89 low · RSI 68 · price 158.835
Higher-low sequence from 152.89, now pushing through the 158.40 prior high.
Higher highs and higher lows have held since the 152.89 low. The latest pullback held the 38.2% fib of the 152.89–158.89 advance at 156.58 before this week's push through 158.40 to 158.89, now the 78.6% retracement of the 160.39–152.89 decline. Blowout US PMIs, Treasury yields above 5% and a dovish-read BoJ explain the move, with the 159.45 breakdown level and the 160.39 window high overhead; ATR(14) near 44 pips is well below the early-month expansion, so the advance is an orderly grind rather than an acceleration.
Support: 157.80, 156.58, 155.33
Resistance: 159.45, 160.39
What it said to watch
An H4 close back below the 157.80 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and brings the rising trendline near 157.75 into play
The 159.45 breakdown level and the 160.39 window high are the areas to watch for rejection or break; MoF intervention risk rises into 160
A loss of the 38.2% fib at 156.58 and the 155.33 higher low would mark a deeper correction of the advance
Fedspeak (Paulson today, Williams Fri) and Friday's Durable Goods could shift the yield driver behind this move
Higher-low sequence from the 152.89 base, pressing the 158.40-158.48 swing high.
The pair has recovered roughly 560 pips from the 152.89/152.94 double bottom. Each dip since mid-month has formed a higher low, at 155.33, then the 156.58 swing low, then the 157.80 pullback low, and the rising trendline support sits just below price. Firm US PMIs and hawkish Fed repricing drove the latest leg up. Price has now tested the 158.40-158.48 swing high three times in two days while ATR(14) has compressed to about 42 pips, well down from the 100+ pip bars of the early-September selloff.
Support: 157.80, 156.58, 155.33
Resistance: 158.48, 160.00, 160.39
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 158.48 swing high opens the 160.00 psych level and the 160.39 prior high, the zone where Japanese intervention risk is most acute
Break below the 157.80 pullback low and the rising trendline support would end the higher-low sequence and expose the 156.58 swing low near the 38.2% fib
Loss of the 155.33 higher low would put the whole recovery structure into question
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today, followed by Hammack and Paulson, could decide whether the swing high breaks or holds
Any sharper MoF/Katayama warning could trigger a multi-figure yen spike through the support levels
Higher highs and higher lows since the Sep 8 low at 152.89.
The September rally from the 152.89 low has printed a clean sequence of higher lows (153.98, 155.33, 156.58), and blowout US PMIs reviving October Fed hike bets carried price to a 158.40 swing high. The pair is now easing back into the 157.80–158.00 retest zone of the prior breakout, with the rising trendline just below near 157.45 and both EMAs sloping up underneath. ATR(14) near 39 pips is well below the early-September selloff regime. The 160 psych level and the 160.39 prior high sit in the zone where Japan's intervention warnings apply.
Support: 157.80, 156.58, 155.33
Resistance: 158.40, 160.39
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 157.80 retest zone exposes the rising trendline near 157.45
Break of the 156.58 swing low ends the higher-low sequence; 155.33 higher low and the 50% fib of the September rally near 155.64 sit beneath
H4 close above the 158.40 swing high opens the 160 psych level and the 160.39 prior high, where MoF intervention risk caps
Williams (08:10 UTC) and Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 201K) could materially shift October hike pricing and this read
Any actual intervention or rate-check headline could unwind the rally abruptly
01:02 UTC
Uptrend, higher highs and higher lows off early-month low · RSI 66 · price 158.265
Higher highs/higher lows since 152.89; fresh swing high at 158.40 above the 158.05 prior high.
Since the 152.89 low, USDJPY has built a clean higher-high/higher-low sequence along a rising trendline. It has now retraced roughly three-quarters of the 160.39 cycle high to 152.89 selloff, pushing through the 158.05 prior high to a 158.40 swing high. The leg was driven by hawkish Fed repricing, the US PMI beat and the dovish-leaning BoJ hike. Price holds above both EMAs, with EMA20 over EMA50. ATR(14) has compressed to around 36 pips from the 100+ pip bars of the early-month selloff, so the grind higher is orderly rather than expanding.
Support: 158.05, 156.58, 155.64
Resistance: 158.40, 159.52, 160.39
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 158.40 swing high opens the 159.52 prior range area, with the 160.39 cycle high and the 160 intervention line beyond
Tokyo reopen Thursday: MoF/BoJ rhetoric or a rate check near 159.5–160 could materially shift this read
Close back below the 158.05 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Break of the rising trendline and the 156.58 swing low ends the higher-low sequence; fib 50% at 155.64 sits below
Williams and US jobless claims (f/c 201K) Thursday are the next inputs for October Fed-hike pricing