USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Thursday, 25 June 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flat · RSI 54 · price 161.768
Ranging below 40-yr high.
USD/JPY has spent the week caged between 161.50 and the 161.90 area, pinned just below the 162.00 intervention zone and 40-year high. Tuesday's sharp spike down to 161.07 was fully bought back within hours, and price has since ground out higher lows back toward the range top as the in-line PCE print left the hawkish-Fed story discounted. RSI(14) sits mid-range with no divergence, consistent with the carry grind into Tokyo CPI.
Support: 161.50, 161.07
Resistance: 161.90, 162.00
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI 23:30 UTC — a hot ex-fresh-food print could press USD/JPY lower from the 161.50–162.00 zone
H1 close above 162.00 clears the intervention/40-yr-high trigger
Loss of 161.50 opens the path back toward the 161.07 weekly low
USD/JPY has ground higher since Monday's 161.43 open but stalled into the 161.95 week high, with the 162.00 40-year/intervention zone repeatedly capping topside. Price is coiling 161.55–161.95 just above EMA50 while RSF cycles mid-range, reflecting the carry grind colliding with intervention wariness flagged by MoF/US jawboning. The spike-low absorption near 161.07 earlier in the week left a series of higher lows underpinning the drift.
Support: 161.55, 161.40
Resistance: 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (ex-fresh-food f/c 1.6%) is imminent and can materially shift this read
An H1 close above 161.95 opens the path toward the 162.00 intervention trigger
Loss of 161.55 then 161.40 breaks the higher-low sequence
USD/JPY has ground higher since Monday's open but stalled into the NY session, pinned just under the 161.95 week high with the 162.00 intervention zone capping topside. Price is tracking EMA(20) closely and RSI(14) is flat near 50, consistent with the carry grind described in the digest as yen weakness collides with intervention wariness. The sole impulsive move of the week was a sharp spike to 161.07 and recovery; since then structure has been a tight 161.40–161.95 range.
Support: 161.55, 161.40, 161.10
Resistance: 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI 23:30 UTC (f/c 1.6%) lands within the next bar and could break the range
H1 close above 161.95 opens a test of the 162.00 intervention trigger
Loss of 161.55 range floor exposes the 161.40 swing low
Failure to hold 161.10 would break the week's uptrend base
USDJPY has spent the week grinding sideways in the 161.55–161.95 band, pinned just under the 162.00 intervention zone with RSI(14) cycling around the midline. The Monday spike to 161.925 was sharply rejected back to 161.07 before buyers rebuilt a series of higher lows into the latter half of the week. Price sits right on its EMA(20) with the broader structure holding above EMA(50), but the 161.95 week high has capped two attempts.
Support: 161.55, 161.27, 161.07
Resistance: 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI ex-fresh-food (f/c 1.6%) due ~23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 161.95 puts the 162.00 interv zone in play
Loss of 161.55 range floor exposes the 161.27 higher low
USD/JPY has ground higher on a series of higher lows since Monday, holding above EMA(20) on pullbacks as firm US data and dollar-carry kept the yen pinned near multi-decade lows. The 161.90/161.95 week high has capped three NY-session attempts, with the pair magnetized just under the 162.00 intervention zone. A sharp wick to 161.07 early in the window was fully recovered, leaving rising support along the week's lows intact.
Support: 161.56
Resistance: 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC is a HIGH-impact catalyst that could materially shift this read
Sustained H1 close above 162.00 intervention zone opens fresh highs; sharp rejection there caps the grind
Loss of 161.56 rising support breaks the higher-low sequence
USDJPY has ground higher on a series of higher lows since the early-week spike low near 161.07, holding above EMA(20) into the back half of the week. Price stalled at the 161.95 week high and is now coiling in a tight 161.55–161.90 band just under the 162.00 intervention zone, with the in-line US PCE doing little to break the hawkish-Fed dollar bid. RSI(14) sits mid-range, reflecting the loss of upside momentum as the pair magnetizes toward 162.00.
Support: 161.55, 161.40
Resistance: 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Sustained H1 close above 162.00 extends the uptrend; sharp rejection caps it
Failure to hold the 161.40 range floor breaks the week's higher-low sequence
20:01 UTC
Uptrend, capped under 162.00 · RSI 55 · price 161.777
Grinding higher into intervention zone.
USDJPY has ground higher all week, holding above EMA(20) and EMA(50) as firm US data and sticky PCE underpinned dollar carry, leaving the pair pinned near 40-year highs. Price stalled at 161.95 into the NY session with the 162.00 intervention zone capping the advance and RSI(14) cycling around the mid-50s rather than pushing overbought. A higher-low base around 161.55 has held since Wednesday's dip to 161.32.
Support: 161.55, 161.32
Resistance: 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 1.6%) could materially shift this read
Sustained H1 close above 162.00 opens the path higher; a sharp rejection there flags exhaustion
Loss of 161.55 breaks the week's higher-low sequence toward 161.32
USD/JPY has ground higher since Monday's open, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling mid-range and pullbacks finding the rising support off the week's lows. The week high at 161.946 has capped rallies and price sits pinned just under the 162.00 intervention zone, with the 161.557 swing low defining the higher-low structure. Yen stayed on the back foot all week as firm US data and stretched short positioning kept the carry bid intact.
Support: 161.557
Resistance: 161.946, 162.00
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Hourly close above 161.946 opens path toward the 162.00 intervention line
USD/JPY has spent the week pinned in a 161.40–161.95 band just shy of the 162.00 40-year high, with firm USD on hawkish-Fed pricing meeting Tokyo intervention angst. Rejection from 161.95 capped the latest NY-session push and price now sits on EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling in the low-50s. An earlier flash spike to 161.07 was bought back within the hour, leaving the wider range intact.
Support: 161.56, 161.27
Resistance: 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI 23:30 UTC could break the 161.40–161.95 range
H1 close above 162.00 opens fresh highs; acceptance vs rejection key
Loss of 161.56 session low exposes the 161.27 swing low
Fed-speak (Williams, Goolsbee) tonight could shift USD tone
USDJPY has ground higher all week toward a 40-year high, with price holding above EMA(20) and EMA(50) and pullbacks finding the rising trendline of higher lows. The week high near 161.95 capped two attempts during the NY session before price eased to 161.55 and recovered; RSI(14) has cooled back to the low-50s, reflecting slowing momentum just shy of the 162.00 intervention zone. Firm USD on hawkish-Fed pricing underpins the bid while escalating intervention warnings cap the topside.
Support: 161.55, 161.32
Resistance: 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 1.6%) could materially shift this read
H1 acceptance above 161.95 opens the path to the 162.00 40yr high
Failure to hold 161.55 swing low exposes the 161.32 prior low
162.00 — intervention zone flagged by Tokyo authorities, area to watch for rejection
18:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into highs · RSI 57 · price 161.804
Higher lows, capped below 162.00.
Steady uptrend since Monday's open with higher lows holding into each session, USD/JPY now knocking on the 162.00 40-year high as hawkish-Fed carry keeps the pair bid. Tuesday's spike to 161.07 was swept and fully recovered; price has since reclaimed EMA20 and is grinding the week high near 161.95. RSI(14) cycling around 55-60 on pullbacks reflects momentum that is firm but no longer accelerating into the highs.
Support: 161.55, 161.10
Resistance: 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 162.00 opens the path beyond the 40-year high
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of 161.55 then 161.10 would break the week's higher-low sequence
18:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into resistance · RSI 55 · price 161.804
Higher lows since Monday, capped below 162.00.
USDJPY has ground higher through the week on the hawkish-Fed carry theme, posting higher lows and pressing the 161.95 week high before easing back to 161.80. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) cycling in the 50s, but the 162.00 40-year high — repeatedly flagged as an intervention trigger — continues to cap the advance. A wick to 161.07 earlier in the window was bought back instantly, underscoring demand on dips.
Support: 161.55
Resistance: 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 162.00 40-year high opens fresh upside but sits in the intervention zone
Failure to hold the 161.55 swing low breaks the week's higher-low sequence
USDJPY has ground higher all week on hawkish-Fed repricing, pressing the 40-year high near 162.00 but stalling below the 161.95 week high on the last two NY pushes. Price sits above EMA(20) with pullbacks tracking a rising sequence of higher lows from 161.07; the late spike-low into the NY session marked the only deep flush before buyers recovered. RSI(14) cycling around the mid-50s reflects momentum cooling as the pair compresses just under the intervention zone.
Support: 161.55, 161.34, 161.10
Resistance: 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 162.00 clears the 40-yr high but air thins into the MoF intervention zone
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC is a high-impact catalyst that could shift this read
Failure to hold 161.55 breaks the week's rising-low sequence
Loss of 161.34 exposes the 161.10 uob support shelf
17:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into resistance · RSI 55 · price 161.769
Higher lows, capped below 162.00.
USDJPY has ground higher since Monday's open on hawkish-Fed repricing, holding above EMA50 with pullbacks finding the rising lows. The 161.95 week high and the 162.00 40-year high have capped every attempt this week, and price now sits back at the EMA20 after fading from 161.95. RSI(14) is mid-range near 55 with no fresh impulse.
Support: 161.55, 161.10
Resistance: 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 162.00 40-year high opens the path higher, but intervention risk thickens into that zone
Failure to hold the 161.55 swing low confirms a deeper pullback toward the 161.10 support shelf
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling near 40yr high · RSI 47 · price 161.685
Higher highs into 162.00, pullback off week high.
USDJPY has ground higher all week toward the 40-year barrier, but the 161.95 area capped the latest NY push and price has slipped back below EMA(20). In-line US core PCE denied fresh hawkish fuel, prompting a modest USD profit-take, yet the broader bid into 162.00 remains intact with demand stepping in around 161.55. Approach to the 162.00 intervention zone keeps moves two-way.
Support: 161.10
Resistance: 161.946, 162.00
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close above 162.00 opens the path higher into uncharted territory
Failure to hold 161.55 confirms a lower-low and deeper pullback toward 161.10
USDJPY ground higher all week toward the 40-year barrier, tagging 161.946 before stalling. In-line core PCE today denied fresh USD fuel and the NY session saw profit-taking pull price back to 161.55 before stabilising near 161.69. RSI(14) has cooled toward the mid-40s as price slipped under EMA(20), though the broader higher-low sequence off the 161.07 sweep is intact.
Support: 161.557, 161.10
Resistance: 161.946, 162.00
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Close above 161.946 reopens the path to the 162.00 intervention zone
Failure to hold 161.557 confirms a deeper pullback toward 161.10
USDJPY ground higher through the week on firm USD carry, with the dollar near 13-month highs after in-line core PCE, but the latest NY-session push to 161.95 was rejected and price has slipped back under EMA20 toward 161.66. The 162.00 psych level — the flagged intervention zone — continues to cap, and RSI(14) has cooled back to neutral as the rally stalls. Higher lows since the 161.07 spike remain intact above 161.55.
Support: 161.55
Resistance: 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read into thin liquidity
H1 close above 161.95 reopens the path to the 162.00 psych level
Loss of 161.55 session low breaks the week's higher-low sequence
USDJPY ground higher through the week on firm dollar carry, tagging a week high at 161.95 before stalling just shy of the 162.00 psych high. The latest NY-session bars rejected from 161.95 and slipped below EMA20 to 161.66, with RSI(14) cooling back toward 48. Price is holding above the session low at 161.56 for now, but the move into the 162.00 intervention zone has lost steam.
Support: 161.56, 161.34
Resistance: 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.95 week high opens the 162.00 psych high
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read into thin liquidity
Failure to hold 161.56 session low exposes the 161.34 swing low
USDJPY has ground higher all week toward the 162.00 2024 high, with the in-line US core PCE print removing fresh upside fuel and capping the latest push at 161.95. The mid-week spike down to 161.07 was swept and fully recovered, but the latest leg failed at the week high and price has slipped back below EMA(20). Support at 161.55 has anchored the higher-low sequence.
Support: 161.55
Resistance: 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 161.95 opens the path to the 162.00 2024 high
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Intervention risk near 162.00 — area to monitor for a sharp two-way snap
Loss of 161.55 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence
14:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into resistance · RSI 53 · price 161.726
Higher lows, capped below 162.00.
USDJPY has ground higher all week, recovering quickly from the flash dip to 161.07 and pressing toward the 162.00 2024 high. The latest push to 161.95 was rejected and price slipped back to the EMA20, with in-line US core PCE removing fresh hawkish fuel for now. RSI(14) is cycling mid-range as the advance stalls just shy of the figure.
Support: 161.55, 161.10
Resistance: 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 162.00 opens the path beyond the 2024 high; intervention risk is concentrated at the figure
Failure to hold 161.55 exposes 161.10 and breaks the week's higher-low sequence
Tokyo CPI (23:30 UTC) and Fed Williams/Goolsbee tonight could materially shift this read
13:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into highs · RSI 58 · price 161.817
Higher highs, stalling at 161.95.
USD/JPY has ground higher since Monday's open, riding the hawkish-Fed differential toward the 161.95 multi-decade high before stalling near 161.82. Pullbacks have repeatedly held above the rising 161.55 area, and price sits above EMA20 with RSI cycling in the mid-50s to low-60s. Stalls at 161.95 line up with escalating intervention chatter from Tokyo.
Support: 161.55
Resistance: 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
US Core PCE 12:30 UTC is the immediate catalyst — high sensitivity in the first hour
Hourly close above 161.95 opens the path toward 162.00 and generational highs, where intervention risk thickens
Failure to hold 161.55 breaks the week's rising-low structure
Tokyo CPI 23:30 UTC could shift the read into Asia
USDJPY has ground higher all week, holding above EMA(20) since recovering from Tuesday's spike low at 161.07, with RSI(14) cycling in the 50-65 band on each pullback. Price stalled at 161.94 — the 40-year-high pivot — where intervention chatter thickens, and is now consolidating just below it near 161.82. US Core PCE at 12:30 UTC and Tokyo CPI tonight are the immediate catalysts into this level.
Support: 161.55, 161.07
Resistance: 161.94, 162.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 162.00 opens the path toward generational highs but lifts intervention odds
Loss of 161.55 breaks the higher-low structure
US Core PCE (12:30) and Tokyo CPI (23:30) could materially shift this read
12:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into resistance · RSI 61 · price 161.894
Higher highs/higher lows pressing 40-yr high.
USD/JPY has ground higher all week on the Fed-BoJ yield gap, holding above EMA(20) with each pullback into the 161.55 pivot bought back. Price now sits within a few pips of the 161.93/162 40-year high — an area capped repeatedly and where intervention risk lives. The sharp wipe to 161.072 mid-window was absorbed and fully recovered, leaving structure intact.
Support: 161.55
Resistance: 161.93
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 161.93 opens the 162 psych level and raises intervention odds
US Core PCE at 12:30 GMT is the immediate USD-side catalyst
Tokyo CPI tonight 23:30 UTC could shift the JPY read
Loss of 161.55 pivot would break this-week's higher-low sequence
12:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into resistance · RSI 62 · price 161.894
Higher highs and higher lows, pressing 40-yr high.
USD/JPY has ground higher all week, holding above EMA(20) with pullbacks repeatedly bought into the NY sessions, leaving price within touching distance of the 161.95 multi-decade high. The single sharp wick to 161.07 mid-week was fully recovered, and RSI sits in the low-60s with no clear divergence as it presses the ceiling. Carry and a firmer Fed remain the backdrop, with US Core PCE due at 12:30 GMT today.
Support: 161.55
Resistance: 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
US Core PCE at 12:30 GMT is the dominant near-term driver
An hourly close above 161.95 opens the 162.00 psych level
Loss of 161.55 swing low would break the week's higher-low sequence
Tokyo CPI tonight (23:30 UTC) could shift the read on the JPY side
11:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into yearly high · RSI 63 · price 161.883
Higher highs, higher lows below 161.93 cap.
USDJPY has ground higher since Tuesday's 161.27 low, holding above EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling in the upper-50s/low-60s on each pullback. Price is pressing the 161.93 yearly high again after the 161.07 spike-low mid-week was fully recovered; the differential trade keeps the Yen pinned near 40-year lows. Dips have repeatedly floored near 161.55, keeping the rising support intact.
Support: 161.55, 161.50
Resistance: 161.93
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 161.93 opens 162 — area to watch where intervention risk becomes the cap
US Core PCE 12:30 GMT and Tokyo CPI 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 161.50 breaks the week's rising support
11:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into yearly high · RSI 58 · price 161.812
Higher lows, capped below 161.93.
USDJPY has ground higher since Monday's open, holding above EMA(20) on each pullback as the Fed-BoJ differential keeps the yen pinned near 40-year lows. The 161.93 yearly high has capped the advance, with the week's lone shakeout — a fast flush to 161.07 on Tuesday — fully recovered within two bars. Dips into 161.55 keep finding a floor, leaving structure constructive but stalling just under resistance.
Support: 161.55
Resistance: 161.93, 162.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 161.93/162.00 raises intervention risk rather than clean follow-through
Failure to hold 161.55 breaks the week's higher-low sequence
US Core PCE at 12:30 GMT and Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC are the near-term catalysts for this read
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into resistance · RSI 59 · price 161.812
Higher lows pressing yearly high.
USDJPY has ground higher since Monday's open with JPY pinned near 40-year lows on the Fed-BoJ differential, pullbacks repeatedly finding the EMA(20) around 161.74. The 161.93 yearly high has capped the advance, with price stalling just beneath the 162.00 psych level into the NY session. A brief flash-spike to 161.07 mid-week was fully reabsorbed, leaving the higher-low structure intact.
Support: 161.74, 161.50
Resistance: 161.93, 162.00
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI 23:30 UTC and US Core PCE same session are the key catalysts that could shift this read
H1 close above 162.00 clears the yearly high but invites intervention risk rather than clean follow-through
Failure to hold 161.50 breaks the run of higher lows
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing into yearly high · RSI 58 · price 161.815
Higher highs/higher lows, pressing range top.
USDJPY has ground higher since Monday's open, holding above EMA20/EMA50 and pressing the 161.93 yearly high, where two NY-session attempts have stalled. A sharp mid-week spike to 161.07 was bought back within hours, leaving the higher-low sequence intact and the differential-driven grind dominant. Tokyo CPI and US Core PCE both land this session — the key catalysts for the read.
Support: 161.55, 161.07
Resistance: 161.93, 162.00
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI 23:30 UTC and US Core PCE could materially shift this read
H1 close above 161.93/162.00 extends the trend but invites intervention near 162
Failure to hold 161.55 breaks the week's higher-low structure
USDJPY is grinding sideways into a third session sub-161.95, the July-2024 40-yr peak that has capped every attempt this week while the Fed>BoJ differential keeps dips bid above 161.50. Price holds above EMA20 with RSI cycling in the mid-50s, but the spike low to 161.07 on the US data bar shows two-way risk remains. Tokyo CPI and US Core PCE land tonight — the only catalysts left this week.
Support: 161.50, 161.27
Resistance: 161.95, 161.90
What it said to watch
Clean H1 close above 161.95 signals intervention not yet triggered
Failure to hold 161.50 opens the path back toward the 161.27 swing low
Tokyo CPI + US Core PCE tonight 23:30/12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDJPY has ground out a series of higher lows since the Wednesday spike that briefly swept 161.07 before snapping back, with price holding above EMA(20) into the NY session. The 161.90/161.95 area — the July-2024 40-yr peak — has capped every attempt this week, keeping the tape in a third straight consolidation as the market waits on tonight's Tokyo CPI and US PCE. RSI(14) is cycling in the upper-50s on pullbacks, consistent with the slow drift up but no fresh impulse.
Support: 161.50
Resistance: 161.95, 161.90
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 161.95 clears the 40yr peak and confirms the breakout
Loss of 161.50 breaks the week's higher-low sequence
Tokyo CPI 23:30 UTC + US Core PCE tonight could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into resistance · RSI 63 · price 161.809
Higher-lows, capped below yearly high.
USD/JPY has ground higher since Monday's open and is pressing the 161.93 yearly high for a third straight session as the Fed-BoJ differential keeps JPY pinned. Tuesday's spike low to 161.07 was bought back immediately and rising higher-lows have held above EMA(20), with RSI(14) in the low-60s. Verbal intervention near 161.95 is doing the capping work here, not fundamentals.
Support: 161.55, 161.07
Resistance: 161.90, 161.93
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.95 yearly high would clear the intervention cap
US Core PCE 12:30 UTC and Tokyo CPI 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of 161.55 swing low would break the higher-lows sequence
08:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into resistance · RSI 61 · price 161.809
Consolidation below yearly high.
USDJPY has spent a third straight session pinned just below the 161.95 yearly high, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling in the upper half of its range. The Fed-BoJ differential keeps the pair bid, but each push toward 161.90 has been faded as verbal-intervention risk caps the highs; a sharp spike low to 161.07 mid-window was fully reabsorbed. Buyers have rebuilt off a rising sequence of higher lows since that flush.
Support: 161.40, 161.07
Resistance: 161.95, 161.90
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 161.95 opens the path beyond 162.00 and lifts intervention odds sharply
US Core PCE at 12:30 UTC is the key cross-market swing for the next leg
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could shift the JPY read
Loss of 161.40 would break the rising higher-low sequence
07:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into resistance · RSI 64 · price 161.874
Higher lows pressing the 161.95 cap.
USDJPY has ground higher all week on broad USD strength, climbing in a tidy channel of higher lows and now pressing the 161.95 cap — the July-2024/40-yr peak that has repeatedly capped attempts. A sharp downside wick to 161.07 mid-week swept stops before buyers reclaimed the move within the hour. RSI(14) sits in the low-60s with price above both EMA(20) and EMA(50), reflecting the persistent intraday bid into the NY-Asia transition.
Support: 161.55, 161.07
Resistance: 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.95 opens the path to the 162.00 psych level
Failure to hold 161.55 breaks the higher-low sequence
US Core PCE 12:30 UTC and Tokyo CPI 23:30 UTC are dual catalysts that could reset this read
Intervention headlines near 162.00 risk a sharp short-covering snap
07:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 64 · price 161.874
Rising higher-highs into 40yr-high cap.
USDJPY has ground higher all week along a rising sequence of higher lows, holding above EMA(20) since Monday's open with RSI(14) cycling 55-65 on each pullback. The 161.95 40yr-high cap is now in range as the pair presses fresh session highs into the European hours, with intervention caution the only visible brake near 162.00. Today's clustered US Core PCE alongside Tokyo CPI sits as the week's dual catalyst.
Support: 161.55
Resistance: 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
Repeated rejection at the 161.95 40yr high signals intervention nervousness
US Core PCE at 12:30 UTC and Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of 161.55 session low breaks the rising higher-low sequence
06:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into ceiling · RSI 61 · price 161.809
Rising lows below 161.95 cap.
USDJPY has ground higher all week, recovering cleanly from the sharp spike to 161.07 and holding above EMA(20) on each pullback, with RSI(14) cycling in the high-50s/low-60s. The 161.95/162.00 ceiling (2024 high) has capped repeated probes as intervention caution offsets a broadly bid dollar. Price is pressing the upper edge of the 161.20–161.95 band into the NY session.
Support: 161.55
Resistance: 161.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.95 opens the path toward the 162.00 ceiling, where intervention risk is elevated
Failure to hold 161.55 rising lows breaks the week's higher-low sequence
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and US PCE block at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDJPY has coiled in a 161.20–161.95 band since midweek, grinding back toward the 161.95/162.00 ceiling that has capped every attempt this week. Price holds above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling in the mid-50s to 60, but the sharp wick to 161.07 mid-window shows two-way risk into the level. Intervention caution is the named cap on upside while Fed-hike pricing keeps the pair bid near its 40-year high.
Support: 161.40, 161.07
Resistance: 161.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.95 invalidates the range read and opens the 162.00 ceiling
Failure to hold 161.40 reopens the 161.07 wick low
US Core PCE at 12:30 UTC and Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC are clustered catalysts that could shift this read
USDJPY has ground higher all week on the Fed-BoJ differential, holding above EMA(20) on each pullback into the NY sessions and printing a string of higher lows off the 161.32 spike low. A sharp wick to 161.072 mid-week was fully recovered, leaving the move a false break rather than a top; price now sits just under the 161.84 week high with the 161.92 yearly peak as the intervention-sensitive ceiling. RSI(14) cycling in the mid-50s reflects steady but unconvincing momentum into resistance.
Support: 161.55, 161.32
Resistance: 161.84, 161.92, 162.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.92 yearly high opens the path to the 162.00 psych ceiling
Failure to hold 161.55 swing low breaks the week's higher-low sequence
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDJPY has clawed back the mid-week spike-low at 161.07 and is grinding higher into the NY-Asia handover, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling in the mid-50s. The pair remains pinned below the 161.95 yearly ceiling that capped two prior attempts, with the Fed-BoJ differential keeping the bid intact but intervention risk capping follow-through. Price is consolidating in a tight 161.55-161.84 band just under that ceiling.
Resistance: 161.84, 161.925, 161.95
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 161.95 yr ceiling opens path toward 162.00
Failure to hold 161.55 swing low confirms a lower-low
USD/JPY has ground higher since Tuesday's open on the wide Fed-BoJ gap, but the rally has stalled into the 161.84 weekly high with price coiling 161.55-161.82 over the last sessions. A sharp wick to 161.07 mid-week was bought back immediately, leaving the 161.95 July-2024 barrier untested but capping upside. RSI(14) has cooled toward neutral as price drifts back under EMA(20).
Support: 161.55, 161.32
Resistance: 161.84, 161.95
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI ex-Food at 23:30 UTC is the next catalyst for this read
H1 close above 161.95 yearly high invites intervention headlines
Failure to hold 161.55 swing low opens 161.32 wk low
USDJPY has ground higher through the week, recovering the sharp 161.92-to-161.07 spike midweek and rebuilding to the 161.84 area as the hawkish Fed keeps the dollar firm. Price is pinned just under the 161.95 yearly high with RSI cycling mid-range and pullbacks holding the EMA(20); the 161.95/162.00 barrier has capped each test, with intervention fears cited as the cap. Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC is the next catalyst for this read.
Support: 161.40, 160.90
Resistance: 161.84, 161.95
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 161.95 opens the path toward the 162.00 yearly high
Failure to hold 161.40 range low confirms a deeper pullback toward 160.90
03:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling under cap · RSI 53 · price 161.709
Consolidation beneath 40yr high.
USD/JPY has ground higher since Tuesday's open, riding hawkish-Fed dollar strength back toward the 161.84 week high but stalling just under the 161.95 forty-year cap for a third session. RSI(14) is mid-range near 53 and price sits above EMA(20), with this week's higher-lows intact off the 161.32 area. The 161.95 ceiling has yet to be tested cleanly, with intervention warnings noted by the JPY context capping upside attempts.
Support: 161.55, 161.32
Resistance: 161.84, 161.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.95 opens the path toward 162.00 and beyond
Loss of 161.55 swing low breaks this week's higher-low sequence
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift the JPY read
USD/JPY has ground higher since Monday's open, holding above EMA(20) on each pullback as the hawkish-Fed vs hawkish-BoJ standoff keeps the pair pinned near 40-year highs. The 161.95 yearly high has capped attempts, with a brief spike to 161.925 sharply rejected; price now consolidates around 161.72 just under that cap. RSI(14) cycles in the mid-50s, reflecting fading momentum rather than fresh impulse.
Resistance: 161.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.95 opens the path toward 162.00 and beyond
Failure to hold 161.55 swing low signals a lower-low into the range
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (~21h) could materially shift this read
USD/JPY has ground higher since Monday's open toward 40-year highs, but momentum has flattened with price coiling 161.55–161.84 for the past sessions just under the 161.95 July-2024 ceiling. A sharp wick to 161.07 mid-window was fully absorbed, and a hawkish BoJ Summary of Opinions plus live intervention risk are capping the carry-driven grind. Price now sits marginally below EMA(20) with RSI(14) idling near 50.
Support: 161.55
Resistance: 161.84, 161.95
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI bundle at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USD/JPY has ground out a third day of range trade between 161.55 and the 161.84/161.95 ceiling, holding above EMA(20) through this week's NY sessions as hawkish-Fed dollar strength meets a hawkish BoJ and live intervention threat. A sharp sweep to 161.07 mid-week was bought back within the hour, leaving demand stepping in on dips while supply caps just shy of the July-2024 peak. RSI(14) is cycling around the mid-50s — momentum flat rather than expanding into the highs.
Support: 161.55, 161.07, 160.90
Resistance: 161.84, 161.95
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close above 161.95 opens the path toward 162.00+
Close below 161.55 exposes the 161.07 spike low and 160.90
US Core PCE at 12:30 UTC and Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDJPY has ground higher all week from Monday's 161.19 open, holding above EMA(20) on each pullback as the wide Fed-BoJ rate gap keeps the pair bid near multi-decade highs. The 161.84–161.95 zone has capped repeated attempts into the NY session, with intervention warnings doing the capping under the July-2024 161.95 peak. RSI(14) is cycling mid-range around 54, reflecting the slowing momentum as price coils just below resistance.
Support: 161.40
Resistance: 161.84, 161.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.95 opens the 162.00 area
Loss of 161.40 breaks the week's rising support
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could shift this read sharply
USDJPY has ground higher all week on the wide Fed-BoJ rate gap, holding above EMA(20) since Monday's open with pullbacks shallow. The 161.95 multi-decade high continues to cap — buyers stalled at 161.84 in the latest NY session, and the sharp wick to 161.07 mid-week was bought back fast. RSI(14) is cycling mid-range, reflecting a grind rather than an impulsive push.
Support: 161.32, 160.90
Resistance: 161.84, 161.95
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and US Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A clean H1 close above 161.95 opens 162.00; intervention risk thickens there
Loss of 161.32 sweep low signals momentum fading toward 160.90
USD/JPY has ground higher since midweek, riding a series of higher lows but still capped below the 161.92 week high and the 161.95 July-2024 peak. The pair held a tight 161.20-161.80 band through the run, with hawkish BoJ rhetoric and intervention fear offsetting broad USD strength near 13-month highs. RSI(14) sits mid-range as price holds above EMA20.
Support: 161.46, 161.27
Resistance: 161.92, 161.95
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 161.95 opens the path to the 162.00 ceiling
Loss of the rising higher-low line and 161.46 reopens 161.27 range low
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and US Core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDJPY is grinding higher off the mid-week sweep to 161.07, a sharp false break that was bought back within the hour as intervention fear and hawkish BoJ rhetoric offset broad USD strength. Price has rebuilt higher lows through the NY session and now sits above EMA20, pressing the 161.84 week high with the 161.95 2024 peak capping overhead. RSI(14) holds in the upper 50s/low 60s, firm but not extended.
Support: 161.50, 161.07
Resistance: 161.84, 161.95
What it said to watch
Failure to break 161.95 keeps the multi-day range intact
Core PCE at 12:30 UTC and Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
Loss of 161.50 week pivot would negate the rising-lows structure