Lower highs since Wednesday's 158.35 spike; 157.60 range floor broken Friday, now retested from below.
Tuesday to Thursday held a 157.60–158.00 range, and the FOMC spike to the 158.35 week high was rejected within the hour. Friday's hawkish BoJ hold broke the range floor in the Asia session and extended to a 156.96 week low in London. A rebound through NY as the dollar steadied left price at 157.53, above EMA(20) near 157.45 but capped at the 157.64 NY high, where EMA(50), the 50% fib of the 158.35–156.96 decline and the lower-highs line from Thursday's 158.13 high converge.
Support: 157.26, 157.12, 156.96
Resistance: 157.64, 157.82, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.64 NY high and the lower-highs line reopens the 61.8% fib at 157.82 and the old range interior
Failure to hold the 157.26 higher low breaks the Friday higher-lows line and exposes the 157.12 BoJ low, then the 156.96 week low
ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC, f/c 54.7) could materially shift this read; Ueda's Nov 6 speech is the main yen-side risk
Tue–Thu 157.60–158.35 range broken lower Friday; lower highs over higher lows.
The Tuesday–Thursday 157.60–158.35 range gave way on Friday. The hawkish BoJ hold knocked the pair through the floor in the Asia session from the 157.90 pre-BoJ high, and London extended the drop to the 156.96 week low. NY hours retraced to a 157.64 high, stalling just under the 50% fib of the FOMC-spike-to-week-low drop and around EMA(50) near 157.60, the old range floor. Price is back above EMA(20) at 157.45 with RSI(14) recovered to 50, and the bounce is building a sequence of higher lows beneath a falling line of lower highs.
Support: 157.45, 157.26, 156.96
Resistance: 157.64, 157.90, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.64 NY high and the 157.60 old range floor would break the lower-highs line and reopen the 157.90 pre-BoJ high
Loss of EMA(20) and the 157.26 higher low would expose the 156.96 week low
Only a recovery through the 158.35 week high, the FOMC spike, would negate the Friday range break
ISM Manufacturing on Mon Nov 2 at 15:00 UTC and Ueda's speech on Nov 6 could materially shift this read