22:25 UTC
Uptrend from September low, pressing summer highs · RSI 62 · price 159.714
Higher lows since 152.89; October 156.1–159.0 range broken higher.
Since the early-September low at 152.89 the pair has built higher lows, and this week hot US CPI plus Fed-hike repricing drove a break of the 156.1–159.0 October range through its 159.03 range top. Closes now hold above a rising EMA(20) at 158.45 and EMA(50) at 158.19. Price sits at the 61.8% retracement of the July–September decline from the 163.99 July high and just under the 160.20/160.39 August highs. That is the zone where MoF warnings have escalated and the summer intervention began.
Support: 159.03, 158.19, 156.08
Resistance: 160.39, 162.20, 163.99
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 160.39 August high opens the 162.20 July shelf
- Close back below the 159.03 range top returns the October range read, with ema50 at 158.19 next
- Break of rising support and the 156.08 October low invalidates the higher-low structure
- Japan Q3 GDP Sun 23:50 UTC and Fed Chair Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
- Unscheduled MoF intervention risk while price holds the 160.00 area below the July high