22:09 UTC
Downtrend, extended and pressing yearly lows · RSI 33 · price 49.786
Lower highs and lower lows since the March 2026 peak; Q3 range broken lower.
Silver has trended lower since the early-March 2026 peak at 96.37. Successive lower highs at 89.36, 71.17 and 67.53 define a falling lower-high line, and the late-September break of the 62–71 Q3 range opened this latest leg to a yearly low at 48.60. Price sits well below a falling EMA(50), so the macro filter points down. Hawkish Fed pricing, with a December hike about 73% priced, and firm US data such as the JOLTS beat explain the pressure. The 50.00 round number caps the current week and the summer low at 54.76 is the first broken floor overhead. Weekly RSI at 33 is approaching, but not yet at, an oversold extreme.
Support: 48.603, 45.00
Resistance: 50.00, 54.756, 59.875
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the yearly low at 48.60 extends the downtrend with little structure until the 45.00 psych level
- Weekly close back above the 50.00 round number and then the summer low at 54.76 would mark the breakdown as failing
- The 23.6% retracement of the Q1 high to yearly low decline sits at 59.88; only a recovery above the lower-high line near 67.5 alters the downtrend read
- RSI(14) dropping below 30 would put the move at a weekly oversold extreme
- US midterm results overnight plus ADP and ISM Services on Wed 4 Nov could materially shift the hawkish-Fed pricing behind this leg