21:07 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 44 · price 60.352
Lower highs and lower lows from 67.53; tight 59.7-62.1 base.
Silver keeps a clean lower-high, lower-low sequence from 67.53 through 65.08, with Monday's yields- and oil-driven slide setting up a two-week base between the 59.68 swing low and the 61.41 range cap. Friday's push to a 62.07 lower high, below the former base at 62.30, was rejected despite the NFP miss and ran to a fresh low. Price sits below both EMAs, and ATR(14) near 950 pips has compressed from the early-week expansion. The rejection came below the 38.2% fib of the 65.08-59.68 leg near 61.74.
Support: 60.00, 59.676
Resistance: 61.413, 62.07, 62.303
What it said to watch
- H4 close below the 60.00 round number and the 59.676 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
- H4 close above the 61.41 range cap and the 38.2% fib near 61.74 challenges the base-under-pressure read
- A reclaim of the 62.07 lower high and the 62.30 former base would break the lower-highs trendline
- ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and prices paid could materially shift this read
- FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and the 10y yield near 5.3% are further risks to the structure