Lower highs from 58.03 intact; 53.45 swing high capped the bounce off the 48.60 yearly low, now ranging 51.18-52.61.
Silver's lower-highs sequence from 58.03 is intact. The rebound off the 48.60 yearly low met rejection at the 53.45 swing high, just under the descending trendline. Since then price has printed successively lower highs toward 52.61 while holding a swing low at 51.18, near the 38.2-50% retracement of the 48.60-53.45 leg. The hot NFP and wage beat revived December Fed-hike bets and kept the metal pinned near EMA20, with ATR(14) elevated near 880 pips and no sign of compression yet.
Support: 51.18, 50.45, 48.60
Resistance: 52.61, 53.45, 54.60
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 51.18 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib at 50.45 and then the 48.60 yearly low
Close above the 52.61 lower high, then the 53.45 swing high, would break the lower-highs sequence and test the descending trendline toward the 54.60 prior high
US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read; Fed speakers Daly, Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin and Waller beforehand
Lower highs below 53.45; pullback holding 38–50% of the rebound.
The multi-week decline from 58.03 built a double low at 48.85/48.60 before an election-driven rebound to the 53.45 swing high. That high stalled at the descending trendline of lower highs from the 54.60 range high. Since then price has put in lower highs at 53.12 and 52.99 and pulled back to a 51.18 swing low, holding between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the rebound with EMA20 still above EMA50. ATR(14) has eased from the rebound spike, and the hot NFP beat (165K vs 65K, firmer wages) adds a fresh USD and yield headwind as price sits mid-range around 51.95.
Support: 51.18, 50.45, 48.60
Resistance: 52.99, 53.45, 54.60
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 51.18 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib at 50.45 and the 48.60 double low
Close above the 52.99 lower high reopens the 53.45 swing high and the descending trendline
Acceptance above 53.45 would put the 54.60 range high back in play and break the lower-high sequence
Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 GMT, then Bowman 17:15 and Daly 18:00 GMT, could shift hike pricing and this read
Lower highs since 58.03; double-bottom neckline retest.
Silver remains in a lower-high sequence from 58.03. The 48.85/48.60 double bottom at the yearly low triggered a short-covering rally on the US-Iran and midterm relief, which cleared the 51.25 neckline and stalled at the 53.45 weekly high. The pullback has since printed lower highs at 53.12, 52.98 and 52.61, and price is now retesting the neckline zone at 51.18-51.25, right at the 38.2% fib of the 48.60-53.45 leg. Price is pinned to EMA20, EMA20 still sits below EMA50, and ATR(14) near 940 pips stays elevated after the washout.
Support: 51.18, 50.45, 48.60
Resistance: 52.61, 53.45, 54.60
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 51.18 neckline undoes the double-bottom read and exposes the 50% fib at 51.03, then the 61.8% fib at 50.45
Failure to hold 50.45 puts the 48.60 yearly low back in play and confirms the downtrend leg
Close above the 52.61 lower high breaks the pullback sequence; a move above the 53.45 weekly high breaks the lower-highs trendline toward the 54.60 prior high
US NFP, AHE and unemployment at 13:30 GMT, then Michigan inflation expectations at 15:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
Lower highs at 58.03, 54.61 and 53.45; rebound off the yearly low retracing.
The lower-high sequence from 58.03 through 54.61 to 53.45 is still intact. The midterm-driven short-covering rebound off the 48.60 yearly low met rejection at the 53.45 swing high, just under the lower-high line. Price has since slipped into the 38.2–50% rebound fib zone (51.60–51.03) and is testing the 51.24 swing low, sitting just beneath a flattening EMA20/EMA50 cluster near 51.57 where the two averages have all but converged. ATR(14) near 975 pips is elevated after the rebound-day expansion, and that wide range runs into NFP.
Support: 51.24, 49.00, 48.60
Resistance: 51.57, 53.45, 54.60
What it said to watch
H4 acceptance above the ema cluster at 51.57, then a close through the 53.45 swing high, would break the lower-high line and expose the 54.60 prior high
Failure to hold the 51.24 swing low opens the 50% rebound fib near 51.03 and the 49.00 round number
A break below 49.00 brings the 48.60 yearly low back into view and resumes the lower-low sequence
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) plus AHE and unemployment could materially shift this read; Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC is an earlier yields catalyst
Lower highs below 53.45 channel top after V-rebound from yearly low.
Silver broke down from the late-October 53.00–54.60 range top and reached a yearly low at 48.60. It then rebounded sharply on the post-midterm USD and yield drop, but the move stalled at the 53.45 channel top. Since then the H4 has printed lower highs at 53.12, 52.99 and 52.61, and price has drifted back to the 38.2% fib near 51.60, sitting on the converging EMA20/EMA50 cluster. ATR(14) near 930 pips remains expanded after the wide-range rebound bar, with no compression yet.
Support: 51.60, 51.03, 48.60
Resistance: 52.99, 53.45, 54.60
What it said to watch
NFP, AHE and unemployment at 13:30 UTC Fri (Williams at 09:30) could materially shift this read
H4 close above the 52.99 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; acceptance above the 53.45 channel top flips structure toward the 54.60 range top
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 51.03 exposes the 49.00 rebound base and the 48.60 yearly low