21:09 UTC
Downtrend, short-term rebound testing it · RSI 55 · price 60.818
Lower highs from 67.53; false break below 60-62 range reclaimed.
Silver has printed lower highs since the 67.53 double top, at 65.08 and then the 62 cap (62.07/62.02). Hawkish FOMC minutes pushed the low down to a 58.49 swing low before Friday's softer-yield rebound. That rebound reclaimed psych 60 and the fib 61.8 of the 62.02-58.49 fib, which turns Thursday's drop below the 60-62 range into a false break for now. Price sits back above both EMAs, but EMA20 is still below EMA50, and ATR(14) near 700 pips is compressing from the early-window regime.
Support: 60.674, 58.494
Resistance: 61.173, 62.05, 65.078
What it said to watch
- H4 close back below psych 60 reopens the 58.49 swing low and resumes the lower-low sequence
- Holding the fib 61.8 near 60.67 keeps the reclaim of the range intact
- Break of the 61.17 bounce high, then the 62 cap, would end the lower-high sequence and put the 65.08 lower high in view
- An EMA20 cross above EMA50 would confirm the shift; failure leaves the downtrend read in place
- US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.6%) is the key catalyst for a range break either way; Sunday-open gap risk on Middle East headlines