Lower highs since 67.53; 58.50–62.00 range broken lower.
Lower highs have been in place since the 67.53 peak, and the two-week 58.50–62.00 range gave way after the hot core CPI lifted the USD to YTD highs. The CPI bar took out the range floor and the 56.57 august low, printing a cpi low at 55.385. ATR(14) has expanded to about 760 pips. Price sits well below both the EMA(20) and the EMA(50), with RSI deep in oversold territory.
Support: 55.385, 55.00
Resistance: 56.57, 58.50, 60.00
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 56.57 august low would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 55.385 cpi low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 55.00 round number
Any rebound into the 58.50 range floor, near the 50% fib, is a test of former support as resistance
Bearish structure stays intact while price is below the 60.00 round number
US PPI and Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
17:06 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating · RSI 20 · price 55.657
Lower highs and lower lows; range break below 58.50.
Lower highs at 65.08, 62.07 and 61.44 since the 67.53 late-September top. The hot US core CPI broke the 58.50 2-month low that had floored the 58.50-62.00 range, driving a $2.2 drop into the 55.65 cpi low, with the 55.00 round number the next reference and no window structure beneath. RSI(14) near 20 is deeply oversold, while ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 0.72. That reads as trend extension rather than compression, with EMA20 below EMA50 and price under both.
Support: 55.65, 55.00
Resistance: 56.57, 58.50, 60.00
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 56.57 august low would flag the CPI break as a possible false break
58.50 2-month low, near the 50% fib of the 61.44-55.65 leg, is the first retest zone for broken support
Failure to hold the 55.65 cpi low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 55.00 round number
A close above the 60.00 psych pivot and the lower highs trendline (~60.85) would break the downtrend read
Beige Book today 18:00 UTC and Thu 12:30 UTC Retail Sales/PPI could materially shift this read
13:06 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower · RSI 31 · price 58.495
Lower highs and lower lows, retesting two-month low.
Silver has made lower highs since the 67.53 peak at the start of the window. The latest rebound stalled at the 61.44 lower high, beneath the 62.02 and 61.85 swing highs, and price is now retesting the 58.49 two-month low, with the last bar printing a 58.36 window low. EMA20 sits below EMA50 and price trades under both. ATR(14) near 575 pips is contracting versus the early-window regime even as the decline extends, and the hot core CPI print (0.3% vs 0.2% f/c) plus a firm USD keep pressure on the lows.
Support: 58.363, 56.57
Resistance: 59.359, 60.00, 61.435
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 trade below the 58.36 window low confirms a lower low and exposes the 56.57 august low
H4 close back above the 59.36 minor high and the 59.90 fib 50% would ease the downside read
Reclaim of 60.00 psych would put the lower-highs trendline near 61.4 back in focus
Break of the lower-highs trendline above the 61.44 lower high ends the sequence
Bowman 14:55 UTC, Beige Book 18:00 UTC and Thursday PPI/retail sales could extend or reverse the CPI move
Lower highs and lower lows since the 67.53 peak; pressing the 58.40-58.50 lows.
Silver has printed a steady run of lower highs from 67.53 to 62.07 to the 61.435 lower high. Last week's rebound faded below the descending trendline, and price is back at the 58.40-58.50 swing low with both EMAs overhead. An 18-month-high USD and 10y yields near 5.2% have driven the slide into today's US CPI. ATR(14) has compressed to about 600 pips from roughly 1,000 early in the window, so the CPI print lands on a coiled range. Overhead, the 59.60 breakdown sits near the 38.2% fib of the 61.435-58.396 leg, with the 60.00 psych level just above.
Support: 58.396, 56.57
Resistance: 59.60, 60.00, 61.435
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 58.396 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 56.57 august low
Reclaim of the 59.60 breakdown and the 60.00 psych level would signal a deeper fib retracement of the last leg
Close above the 61.435 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
US CPI at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; Bowman and the Beige Book follow
Lower highs since 67.53 peak, retesting 2-month low zone.
Silver has printed a sequence of lower highs since the 67.53 late-September peak, most recently the 62.07 prior high, 62.02 and the 61.44 lower high. Friday's yield-driven rebound faded under the lower-highs trendline as hawkish Fed rhetoric and oil-led inflation worries returned. Price is now retesting the 58.49–58.65 zone (2-month low and latest swing low) with both EMAs overhead and ATR(14) contracting into today's US CPI.
Support: 58.651, 58.494
Resistance: 60.00, 61.435, 62.07
What it said to watch
US CPI today at 12:30 UTC: a hot core print against a 58.49 2-month low that is already being tested could materially shift this read
H4 close below 58.49 2-month low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 60.00 psych level, near the 50% retrace of the 61.44–58.65 leg, would ease downside pressure
Break of the lower-highs trendline and the 61.44 lower high would challenge the downtrend structure, with 62.07 prior high beyond
Lower highs from 62.02; retesting the 58.88–58.49 low shelf.
Silver keeps printing lower highs from the 62.07 prior high and 62.02. The rebound off the 58.49 2-month low stalled at the 61.44 lower high and has fully retraced as revived oil and inflation risk lifted yields and the USD. Price now sits on the 58.88 swing low, below both EMAs. The fib of that leg places the 50% near the 60.00 round number. ATR(14) near 570 pips has eased from the late-September expansion, so the move into CPI is coming from a moderately compressed range.
Support: 58.88, 58.494
Resistance: 60.00, 61.435, 62.07
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, core vs headline split, could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 58.49 2-month low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 56.57 August low
Reclaim of the 60.00 round number and fib 50% reopens the 61.44 lower high
Break of the lower highs trendline and the 62.07 prior high would end the downtrend structure