Lower highs since 71.17, ranging 62.30-68.31 around a flattening EMA(50).
The May-August slide from 83.85 into the 55.32 low was followed by a five-week recovery that stalled at 71.17 in mid-September; the 55.32-71.17 swing has since given back roughly 38%, with lower highs at 68.31 and a slide into the 62.30 swing low leaving price pinned to a flattening EMA(50) at 65.03. Last week's hawkish Fed — 25bp to 4.00% with the dot plot lifted to 4.1% for this year and 10y yields near 5% — has been the structural drag on the non-yielding metal, yet the latest daily bar reversed off 62.30 with a 2.7-point gain and reclaimed the 64.20 neckline. RSI(14) at 48 sits mid-range, consistent with consolidation rather than a directional trend.
Support: 64.20, 62.30, 60.00
Resistance: 66.14, 68.31, 71.17
What it said to watch
Daily close above the 68.31 swing high would break the chain of lower highs running from the 71.17 sept high
Rejection at the 66.14 bar high keeps the 62.30-68.31 range read intact
Loss of the 64.20 neckline on a daily close reopens the 62.30 swing low, with 60.00 psych the next reference below
S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs on 23 Sep are the main event risk to this structure
12:00 UTC
Downtrend resumed, lower highs since the 71.17 peak · RSI 44 · price 64.33
Distribution off 71.17 into a 62.30-67.93 range, price back under EMA(50).
The dominant move in this window is the slide from 83.85 in May to the 55.32 swing low, followed by a two-month recovery that stalled at the 71.17 swing high; since then daily closes have carved lower highs (69.26, 67.93) and price has slipped back beneath the EMA(50) around 64.98, with EMA20 now rolling under it. The last two weeks have compressed into a 62.30-67.93 band as hot August CPI, a 1.2% retail sales beat and the Fed's raised dot path lifted real yields and capped rallies, though the 62.30 swing low has been defended three sessions running and this week's candle closed back at 64.33. RSI(14) at 44 sits in the lower half of its range without reaching oversold, consistent with a corrective grind rather than capitulation.
Support: 62.30, 61.32, 60.00
Resistance: 64.98, 67.93, 71.17
What it said to watch
Sustained daily closes above the ema50 at 64.98 would neutralise the lower-high sequence off 71.17
A daily close below the 62.30 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 61.32 prior low and the 60.00 psych level
Today's US claims and Philly Fed cluster, then S&P Global Services PMI on Sep 23, are the near-term macro inputs for real yields
Failure of any bounce to reach the 67.93 prior high keeps the multi-week head and shoulders read intact
12:00 UTC
Downtrend from May high, momentum flat · RSI 44 · price 64.33
Lower highs since 71.17, price boxed 62.30-65.26.
Silver has been in a four-month decline from the May 83.85 high; the July 55.32 low produced a recovery that stalled at 71.17, and the shape since is a head and shoulders with a right shoulder at 68.31 and the neckline sitting just under current price. Wednesday's hawkish Fed hike and lifted dot path drove price to a three-week swing low at 62.30 before the rebound to 64.33, which still leaves the close under the D1 ema50 near 64.98. RSI(14) at 44 is mid-range and the last eight sessions have churned inside a 62.30-65.26 range, so the weekly cadence is compression rather than trend expansion.
Support: 62.30, 60.00
Resistance: 64.98, 65.26, 68.31
What it said to watch
Daily closes back above 65.26 prior high and the ema50 would negate the head and shoulders read
Failure to hold the 62.30 swing low confirms a lower-low and opens the 60.00 round number
US claims and Philly Fed today, then S&P Global Services PMI on Sep 23, are the near-term macro inputs for this structure
Eight sessions of 62.30-65.26 churn: sustained acceptance outside that range redefines the multi-week structure