21:09 UTC
Downtrend broken, recovery leg extending · RSI 59 · price 66.249
Triple-bottom base at 62.30/62.80, higher highs and higher lows since.
Three failed probes of 62.30/62.80 built a triple-bottom base, and the subsequent squeeze — attributed to the roll-over in 10y yields and WTI — carried price through the 64.20 neckline and the string of lower highs that capped the market from 71.165, peaking at the 67.32 week high. Sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact, EMA20 has crossed above EMA50, and price is holding above the 65.50 swing low after the pullback from 67.32. ATR(14) near 1025 pips shows an expanding, not compressing, regime, with the retracement of the 67.925-to-62.303 impulse now stalled between the 61.8% and 78.6% markers.
Support: 65.50, 64.20, 62.30
Resistance: 67.32, 68.31
What it said to watch
- Sustained H4 close above the 67.32 week high opens the 68.31 prior high
- Loss of the 65.50 swing low would put the 64.20 neckline back in play
- A close back under 64.20 would re-expose the 62.30 base low and invalidate the higher-low sequence
- US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT and Fed speakers Mon-Tue are live risk to this recovery read