Lower highs and lower lows; 55.38–58.03 range broken lower.
Silver has printed lower highs since 61.44, and the multi-day range that held between the 55.38 prior low and the 58.03 range top gave way this week. Renewed oil strength and firmer December Fed-hike pricing drove the move, which took out the prior low to a fresh low at 54.51. Price trades below both EMAs. ATR(14) has expanded to around 765 pips as the decline extends, and RSI near 27 sits in oversold territory.
Support: 54.51, 54.00
Resistance: 55.38, 56.36, 58.03
What it said to watch
An H4 close back above the 55.38 prior low would mark the breakdown as stalling; the 56.36 breakdown candle and the fib 50% near 56.55 sit above that
Failure to hold the 54.51 fresh low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 54.00 psych level
The lower-highs trendline near 57.9 and the 58.03 range top cap any recovery while the sequence holds
Fri 13:45/14:00 UTC US flash PMIs and UoM 1y inflation expectations (f/c 4.7%) could materially shift this read
Oil swings remain the dominant inverse driver; a crude reversal lower could trigger a relief bounce from oversold
17:06 UTC
Downtrend, extending to new window lows · RSI 31 · price 55.106
Lower highs and lower lows; 57.00–58.60 range broken lower.
Silver has printed lower highs since 65.08 at the start of the window, most recently at 61.44 and 58.59. Price spent the past week in a 57.00–58.60 range before an oil-driven spike in inflation fears broke the range floor. The drop has taken out the 55.39 prior low and printed a 54.99 swing low just above the 54.77 YTD low, with price below both EMAs, EMA20 under EMA50, RSI near 30 and ATR(14) expanding to roughly 760 pips.
Support: 54.991, 54.77
Resistance: 56.37, 57.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 54.77 YTD low extends the lower-low sequence into fresh yearly territory
Reclaim of 55.39 prior low, then the 56.37 fib 38.2 of the 58.59–54.99 leg, would mark the first repair of the breakdown
Range floor at 57.00 and the descending lower-highs trendline cap any recovery while lower highs hold
Fri 13:45/14:00 UTC US PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read via yields and Fed hike pricing
Oil headlines (WTI vs 101.05) remain the dominant swing factor for this leg
13:05 UTC
Downtrend, bounce failed and rolling over · RSI 36 · price 55.779
Lower highs since 65.08; mid-Oct range 56.37-58.59 broken to the downside, price back near the 55.38 swing low.
Silver has made lower highs since the 65.08 peak. The recovery from the 55.38 swing low stalled at the 58.59 swing high, roughly the 50% fib of the 61.43-55.39 leg, and a second rejection at the 58.03 lower high followed. Oil-driven inflation fears and near-fully priced December Fed-hike odds then pushed price through the 56.37 range floor. It now trades below both EMAs, with EMA20 under EMA50. ATR(14) has expanded to about 730 pips on the breakdown, after the compression seen during the range.
Support: 55.385, 55.00, 54.77
Resistance: 56.37, 58.03, 58.592
What it said to watch
An H4 close below the 55.38 swing low confirms a fresh lower low. The 55.00 round number and the 54.77 ytd low are the next reference points.
A recovery back above the 56.37 range floor would turn the breakdown into a false break and reopen the old range.
A close above the lower highs trendline and the 58.03 lower high would break the descending sequence.
Friday's S&P Global PMIs and UoM inflation expectations (13:45-14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via yields and USD.
De-escalation headlines pulling WTI off the ~$98-101 zone have triggered sharp short-covering bounces this week.
Lower highs since 65.08; 56.9–58.6 range broken to downside.
Silver has printed a lower-high sequence from 65.08 through 61.44 and 58.59. The bounce off the 55.39 3m low met rejection between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 61.44–55.39 leg. This week's 56.9–58.6 consolidation gave way as oil-driven inflation fears and firm December Fed-hike pricing weighed, and price is now back below the 56.37 range floor. ATR(14) has re-expanded to roughly 745 pips on the breakdown after compressing inside the range, with price below both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 55.385, 54.77
Resistance: 56.37, 57.00, 58.59
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 55.385 3m low confirms a fresh lower low and exposes the 54.77 ytd low
Reclaim of the 56.37 range floor and 57.00 psych level would neutralise the breakdown read
A break above the 58.59 lower high and the descending lower-highs line would invalidate the downtrend structure
US Initial Jobless Claims today 12:30 UTC and Friday's PMIs/UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
WTI reversal on US–Iran de-escalation headlines has driven sharp silver rebounds this week
05:05 UTC
Downtrend, testing range floor · RSI 42 · price 56.348
Lower highs and lower lows since 65.08; 56.37-58.59 range after the 55.39 low.
Silver has printed lower highs from 65.08 through 62.07, 61.44 and 58.59. Last Thursday's hot core PPI drove the drop to the 55.39 3-month low, and the rebound stalled at the 58.59 range cap, between the 38.2% fib at 57.70 and the 50% level of the 61.44-55.39 leg. The latest bar closed at 56.35, fractionally below the 56.37 range floor, with price under both EMAs. ATR near 710 pips is well below the breakdown-phase readings, so the range has been compressing.
Support: 55.00
Resistance: 56.37, 57.70, 58.592
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 closes below the 56.37 range floor confirm a range break and expose the 55.39 3-month low and the 55.00 round number
A recovery back above the 38.2% fib at 57.70 returns price to the upper half of the range
An H4 close above the 58.59 range cap and the lower-highs trendline would break the lower-high sequence
Jobless claims today and Friday's S&P Global PMIs, with FOMC next week, could materially shift this read; oil spikes have weighed on silver this week
Lower highs from 65.08; rising flag above the 55.39 swing low.
Silver remains in a multi-week downtrend of lower highs from 65.08. Last week's hot core PPI broke the 59–62 prior range and set a swing low at 55.39. Since then price has built a rising flag of higher lows, the latest at 56.78, but has stalled between the 38.2% and 50% levels of the 61.44–55.39 drop fib, with a rejection at the 58.59 range cap and the ema50 near 58.10 overhead; ATR(14) has contracted to ~650 pips from plunge levels, and the flat ema20 at 57.42 still sits below the ema50.
Support: 56.783, 56.37
Resistance: 58.10, 58.592, 60.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 58.59 range cap clears the 50% fib and puts the 60.00 prior range floor back in view
Break below the 56.37 range floor and the flag support trendline would resolve the flag lower toward the 55.39 swing low
Loss of the 56.78 higher low undercuts the flag structure
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and S&P PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD