Range 52.66–54.61 this week, higher lows since Tuesday, FOMC spike rejected.
Tuesday's pre-London dip below the 53.00 swing low to a 52.66 week low turned into a false break. The Tuesday rally then ran through London into NY to 54.54, short of the 54.25 weekly open-to-55.00 zone the digest flags as a cap. Wednesday drifted lower through London as higher oil revived hike fears. The in-line Fed hold whipsawed price from a 53.30 FOMC low to a 54.61 week high, and that spike was rejected. Price is settling at 53.81, just under the ema20 near 53.86 and on the 38.2% retracement of the Tuesday rally, with RSI(14) flat near 47.
Support: 53.30, 53.00, 52.657
Resistance: 53.86, 54.25, 54.605
What it said to watch
Core PCE and Q3 GDP on Thu at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; the digest notes a soft print has more room to move silver
An H1 close below the 53.30 FOMC low breaks the Tuesday higher lows trendline and exposes the 53.00 swing low and the 52.66 week low
Reclaiming the ema20 and holding above the 54.25 weekly open puts the 54.61 week high back in play; a close above it would be a range break
Continued closes around the 53.60–53.82 Tuesday rally fib band would keep the mid-range chop read intact
Silver has chopped inside a 53.00–54.60 range since Thursday's liquidation slide. Tuesday's late-Asia dip to the 52.66 week low was a false break, fully reclaimed by NY hours. Wednesday's pre-FOMC slide found demand at the 53.30 fomc low near the 61.8% retrace, and the presser spike to the 54.60 week high was rejected within the hour, leaving price just above EMA(20) at 53.89 with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 53.89, 53.30, 52.66
Resistance: 54.60, 55.00
What it said to watch
Thu 12:30 GMT core PCE (f/c 0.3% MoM / 3.1% YoY) and Q3 GDP could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 53.30 fomc low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 53.00 range floor and 52.66 week low
Acceptance above the 54.60 week high ends the range-top rejection read and brings the 55.00 psych level into view
Repeated H1 closes below EMA(20) at 53.89 would put price back in the lower half of the range
53.00–54.60 range; higher low at 53.30, highs capped near 54.60.
Silver has rotated inside a 53.00–54.60 range since Thursday. Tuesday's late-Asia sweep to the 52.66 ytd low was reclaimed through London and NY, and the rebound then stalled under 54.55. The FOMC hold drove a two-way swing of more than 100 cents. The fomc low at 53.30 printed a higher low, but the post-presser spike to the fomc high at 54.60 met rejection. Price is now pinned on a flat EMA(20) near 53.88, below the 54.25 weekly open, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 53.30, 53.00, 52.66
Resistance: 54.25, 54.60, 55.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 54.60 fomc high and the 55.00 round number would break the range top
Failure to hold the 53.30 fomc low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 53.00 round number and the 52.66 ytd low
Acceptance back above the 54.25 weekly open would show the post-FOMC rejection being absorbed
Thu 12:30 GMT core PCE (f/c 0.3% m/m, 3.1% y/y) and Q3 GDP (f/c 3.2%) could materially shift this read
Higher low at 53.30 above the 52.66 week low; lower highs 54.97 / 54.54 / 54.52 still cap.
Tuesday's rally ran from the 52.66 week low, set in the Asia session, to the 54.54 week high through the London and NY sessions. Wednesday's slide stalled at 53.30, roughly a 62–66% retracement of that leg, as the Fed held at 4% in line with forecast, leaving a higher low. The presser-driven rebound has lifted price back above EMA(20) and the 54.25 weekly open to 54.46, with RSI(14) near 59, and the lower-high line from last Thursday's 54.97 prior high sits just overhead.
Support: 54.25, 53.30, 52.66
Resistance: 54.54, 54.97
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 54.54 week high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path to the 54.97 prior high and 55.00
Failure to hold the 54.25 weekly open returns price to the 53.30–54.54 range
Break of the 53.30 fomc low undoes the higher low and exposes the 52.66 week low
FOMC presser in progress and Thu 12:30 GMT core PCE / Q3 GDP could materially shift this read
Tuesday rebound retraced past 50%, lower highs capping below 54.30.
Tuesday's NY-session rebound from the 52.657 week low to the 54.538 week high has been steadily unwound since Wednesday's Asia session. A sequence of lower highs has pushed price back under EMA(20) and EMA(50), and more than half of the Tuesday rebound is now retraced. The FOMC hour printed a wide spike between the 54.27 fomc high and the 53.296 fomc low. The upside was rejected at the lower-highs trendline as the in-line hold and hawkish statement kept December hike pricing intact. RSI(14) near 41 is mid-range, not oversold.
Support: 53.296, 53.00, 52.657
Resistance: 53.79, 54.27, 54.538
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 53.296 fomc low exposes the 53.00 fri/mon low, where Friday and Monday both held, and then the 52.657 week low
Reclaim of ema20 near 53.79 followed by a close above the 54.27 fomc high would break the lower-highs trendline
Week high at 54.538 marks the top of the Tuesday rebound; acceptance above it ends the lower-highs sequence
Warsh press conference in progress and Thu 12:30 GMT core PCE/GDP could materially shift this read
18:05 UTC
Range-bound, rolling over from Tuesday's high · RSI 43 · price 53.648
53.00–54.55 range since Friday; Tuesday false break below 53.00, lower highs on Wednesday.
Silver has rotated inside a 53.00–54.55 band since Friday. Tuesday's Asia-session drop to the 52.66 YTD low reversed into a London-to-NY rally to the 54.54 week high as oil eased. Wednesday then printed lower highs at 54.52 and 54.34 as firmer oil revived Fed-hike pricing, and the NY-session slide has left price below the EMA(20) near 53.85 and back under the 54.25 weekly open. Price now sits at the 50% retracement of Tuesday's rally, with RSI(14) around 43.
Support: 53.47, 53.00, 52.66
Resistance: 53.85, 54.25, 54.54
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 53.47 Wednesday low exposes the 53.00 round number and the 52.66 YTD low
Break of the Wednesday lower-highs line, followed by a reclaim of the EMA(20) and the 54.25 weekly open, reopens the 54.54 week high
Thursday 12:30 UTC core PCE and jobless claims are the next risk to the range read
Lower highs from 54.54; back below 50% of Tuesday's rebound.
Tuesday's rebound from the 52.657 week low ran through the NY session to the 54.538 week high as oil eased. Since then each high has been lower: 54.516 in the Asia session and 54.338 at the NY open today, where rejection sent price to a 53.47 session low as firmer oil revived Fed-hike fears. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 53.90, under the 50% retrace of Tuesday's rebound, with RSI(14) near 40 and the Monday low at 53.00 the next shelf.
Support: 53.47, 53.004, 52.657
Resistance: 53.90, 54.338, 54.538
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 GMT and the 18:30 GMT press conference could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 53.47 session low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 53.00 Monday low and the week low
Recovery above EMA(20) and the 54.338 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and re-opens the week high
Thursday core PCE (f/c 0.3% m/m) is the follow-through test for the post-FOMC move
Lower high at 54.34 under the 54.54 week high, back below flat EMAs.
Tuesday's NY-led rebound from the 52.66 YTD low stalled at the 54.54 week high. In the first hour of NY today, price printed a lower high at 54.34, was rejected and slid to a 53.47 session low, back under a flat EMA(20) near 53.89 and EMA(50) near 53.94. Price now sits near the 50% retracement of Tuesday's rebound (53.60) with RSI(14) at 42, as oil-driven Fed-hike fears and a firm USD cap rallies into tonight's FOMC.
Support: 53.47, 53.004, 52.657
Resistance: 53.89, 54.338, 54.538
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the ema20 near 53.89 would neutralise today's rejection
A break of the 54.34 lower high and the 54.54 week high would invalidate the lower-high line
Failure to hold the 53.47 session low exposes the Monday low near 53.00 and the 52.66 YTD low
The FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Fed chair's presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; core PCE follows Thursday at 12:30 UTC
Silver flushed to a 52.66 week low before London on Tuesday, briefly breaking the 53.00 base from Friday and Monday, then recovered in the NY session to a 54.54 week high. Wednesday has faded that bounce with lower highs, and the NY-open spike to 54.34 was rejected back under the ema20 near 53.95 and the 54.25 week open. Firmer oil kept Fed-hike pricing in place. Price sits between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of Tuesday's rally, with the wed low at 53.62 near the 50% level and RSI(14) around 40 into the FOMC.
Support: 53.62, 53.00, 52.66
Resistance: 53.95, 54.25, 54.54
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 53.62 wed low and 50% retrace exposes the 53.00 base, then the 52.66 week low
Close above the Wednesday lower-highs line and the 54.25 week open reopens the 54.54 week high
Repeated H1 closes back above ema20 near 53.95 would weaken the lower-highs read
FOMC decision at 18:00 GMT and the press conference at 18:30 GMT, about 4h out, could materially shift this read
Thursday 12:30 GMT core PCE is a second event risk for the range
53.00–54.55 range; Tue false break to 52.66 reclaimed; lower highs since Thu.
Silver has chopped in a 53.00–54.55 range since Thursday's liquidation drop. Tuesday's London-open false break to a 52.66 YTD low was reclaimed in a NY-driven rally to the 54.54 week high as oil eased. Wednesday's pullback found its low at 53.62, near the 50% of the Tue rally fib, and price is back at the 54.25 weekly open just above a flat EMA(20) near 54.00 (ema20), with RSI(14) at 56 while the lower-highs line from Thursday's 56.13 high continues to cap.
Support: 54.00, 53.62, 52.66
Resistance: 54.54, 55.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 54.54 week high and the lower-highs line opens the 55.00 round number
Loss of ema20 and the 53.62 wed low puts the 52.66 ytd low back in play
Fed decision at 18:00 GMT and the 18:30 GMT press conference could materially shift this read; the tone on a December hike is the swing factor
Thursday Core PCE at 12:30 GMT as follow-through on the Fed reaction
Tuesday's Asia-session undercut of the 53.00 round number to a 52.66 week low reversed into a London-NY rally to the 54.54 week high as oil eased, but supply capped it just under the 54.60 zone. Since then Wednesday's Asia and London sessions have printed lower highs below the weekly open at 54.25 and the 54.10 London high, with price back under EMA(20) and EMA(50) as higher oil revived Fed-hike fears. The pullback has reached the 50% retracement of Tuesday's rebound near the 53.62 session low, with RSI(14) slipping back below 50.
Support: 53.62, 53.00, 52.66
Resistance: 54.10, 54.25, 54.54
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Hourly close above the 54.10 London high and 54.25 weekly open breaks the lower-highs line, with the 54.54 week high next
Failure to hold the 53.62 session low (50% fib) exposes the 53.00 round number, defended on Friday and Monday
Break below the 52.66 week low resumes the downtrend leg, and Thursday's 12:30 UTC core PCE adds follow-on risk
11:04 UTC
Downtrend, rebound fading · RSI 44 · price 53.717
Lower highs off Tuesday's 54.54 rebound high; Tuesday's break below 53.00 was reclaimed.
Silver undercut the 53.00 spike lows from Friday and Monday in Tuesday's Asia session, printing a week low at 52.657. It then retraced the entire leg through London into the NY open to a week high of 54.538 as oil eased. Wednesday has faded that rebound with a run of lower highs from 54.516, as renewed oil-driven Fed-hike pricing weighs. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 53.94, with the Asia-London low at 53.62 testing the fib 50% of Tuesday's rally at 53.60 ahead of today's FOMC.
Support: 53.60, 53.00, 52.657
Resistance: 53.94, 54.25, 54.538
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the fib 50% at 53.60 exposes the 53.00 spike lows and the 52.657 week low
Reclaim of EMA(20) and the 54.25 weekly open breaks the Wednesday lower-highs line
Rejection again at the 54.538 week high keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; core PCE follows Thu 12:30 UTC
Range 53.00–54.55 after Thursday's selloff; Tuesday's break below 53.00 reversed.
After Thursday's slide from 56.15, silver has held a 53.00–54.55 range. The 53.00 floor took NY-hours spikes on Friday and Monday, then broke in Tuesday's Asia session to a 52.657 YTD low before a false break reclaimed it on easing oil. The bounce stalled under the 54.54 range top with a rejection, and the Asia session slide back below EMA(20) near 54.10 has price sitting on the 38.2% retracement of Tuesday's move (~53.82), just above the Wednesday low at 53.687.
Support: 53.687, 53.00, 52.657
Resistance: 54.10, 54.54, 55.00
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Powell presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; hike-validating language versus pushback on December pricing is the swing factor
H1 close below the 53.687 wed low breaks the higher lows off Tuesday and puts the 53.00 floor back in play
Loss of 53.00 on a closing basis reopens the 52.657 ytd low
H1 close above the 54.54 range top, rejected twice this week, would break the lower-high sequence and expose the 55.00 round number
Reclaim of the ema20 near 54.10 needed to neutralise the Asia session pullback
Lower highs since Thursday; higher low Wednesday after false break of 53.00.
Thursday's break below 55.00 during NY hours set up a run of lower highs since Thursday. Tuesday's Asia-session probe to the 52.66 ytd low reversed as a false break of the 53.00 double low from Friday and Monday, but the London/NY rebound met rejection at the 54.54 tue high as oil and Fed-hike pricing reasserted. Wednesday's Asia slide found demand at the 53.69 wed low, between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of Tuesday's rally. Price sits below EMA(20), just under EMA(50) near 54.00, and below the 54.25 weekly open, with RSI(14) around 42.
Support: 53.69, 53.00, 52.66
Resistance: 54.25, 54.54, 55.00
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Fed chair presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 acceptance back above the 54.25 weekly open, then the 54.54 tue high, would break the lower-highs sequence and open the 55.00 round number
Failure to hold the 53.69 wed low (Tuesday-rally 50% retrace near 53.60 just below) exposes the 53.00 double low and the 52.66 ytd low
Thursday 12:30 UTC core PCE and jobless claims are the next scheduled risk after the Fed
53.00–54.54 range after Thursday's breakdown, fading off the range top.
Silver has been boxed in a 53.00–54.54 range since Thursday's NY-session breakdown from 56.50, with oil-driven Fed-hike pricing keeping the metal heavy into today's FOMC. The 53.00 floor absorbed NY-hour probes on Friday and Monday. Tuesday's Asia-session false break to the 52.66 YTD low reversed into NY, but the rally stalled at the 54.54 week high just under the 50% fib of the decline. Wednesday's Asia session has faded back below the weekly open at 54.25, with price now straddling a flat EMA(20) near 54.00, RSI(14) around 43 and the Wed low at 53.69 as the nearest shelf.
Support: 53.687, 53.00, 52.657
Resistance: 54.25, 54.538, 55.38
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Powell at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; December-hike signalling is the swing factor
H1 close above the 54.54 week high breaks the range top and brings broken support at 55.38 back into view
Failure to hold the Wed low at 53.69 puts the 53.00 floor and 52.66 YTD low back in play
Thursday's Core PCE (f/c 0.3% m/m, 3.1% y/y) is the follow-on catalyst after the Fed
07:04 UTC
Downtrend, ranging after breakdown · RSI 43 · price 53.72
53.00–54.55 range below Thursday's breakdown; lower half retested.
Since Thursday's roughly 5% breakdown through 55.38, silver has held a 53.00–54.55 range. Tuesday's Asia-session false break below the 53.00 floor printed a 52.66 YTD low and was reclaimed. The NY-session rebound that followed was rejected at 54.54, just under Friday's 54.56 range top. Wednesday's Asia session has faded back below the 54.25 weekly open and the ema20 near 53.98 as oil-driven Fed-hike fears and a firm USD weigh. RSI(14) has slipped to about 43, and price sits between the 38.2% and 50% fib of Tuesday's rebound.
Support: 53.60, 53.00, 52.66
Resistance: 53.98, 54.25, 54.55
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Powell's presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read. December-hike signalling is the swing factor.
An H1 close back above the ema20 and the 54.25 weekly open would put the 54.55 range top back in play. A break of that level ends the range read.
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 53.60 exposes the 53.00 floor. Acceptance below the 52.66 ytd low would confirm a lower-low.
Thursday's 12:30 UTC Core PCE is the follow-on catalyst after the FOMC.
53.00–54.55 range after Thursday's breakdown, lower-wick false break to 52.66.
Thursday's slide, driven through NY hours, broke the 55.38 support. It extended in Friday's Asia session to the 53.51 fri low, and price has since been boxed between a 53.00 range floor and a 54.55 range top. Tuesday's Asian dip to the 52.66 ytd low was a false break: price recovered through London and NY to 54.54 as oil eased, then met rejection at the range top. Wednesday's Asia session has faded back below the EMA(20) at 54.02 and the 54.25 weekly open as crude firmed. Price now sits on the 38.2% retracement of Tuesday's rebound, with RSI(14) at 45.
Support: 53.51, 53.00, 52.657
Resistance: 54.02, 54.25, 54.55
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Powell at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; core PCE follows Thu 12:30 UTC
Failure to hold the 53.51 fri low and the 50% retracement near 53.60 puts the 53.00 range floor back in play
An H1 close below the 52.66 ytd low would turn Tuesday's false break into a genuine range break lower
Reclaiming the EMA(20) and the 54.25 weekly open is needed before the 54.55 range top comes back into focus; a close above it ends the range read
05:05 UTC
Sideways after Thursday's breakdown, fading off range top · RSI 43 · price 53.855
53.00–54.54 range after a 57.09 sell-off; Tuesday false break below the floor reversed.
Silver has held a 53.00–54.54 range since Thursday's slide from 57.09. Tuesday's early-London false break to a 52.66 ytd low reversed in the NY session as oil eased, carrying price back to the range top, where supply capped it for a second time after Friday. The Asia session has since faded back below the ema20 and the 54.25 week open, with RSI(14) at 43 and price resting near the 38.2% retracement, just above the fib 50% at 53.60.
Support: 53.60, 53.00, 52.657
Resistance: 54.25, 54.54
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Powell at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the fib 50% at 53.60 puts the 53.00 range floor back in focus
Failure to hold 53.00 brings the 52.66 ytd low back into play
Reclaiming the ema20 and 54.25 week open would put the 54.54 range top back in play; an H1 close above it invalidates the range read
Thu 12:30 UTC core PCE (f/c 0.3% m/m) could extend or reverse the post-FOMC move
53.00–54.54 range after Thursday's impulse; false break to YTD low reclaimed.
Thursday's slide from 57.39 broke the 55.38 old support on oil-driven hawkish-Fed pressure. Since then H1 has ranged between the 53.00 round number, defended in NY hours on both Friday and Monday, and the 54.40s. Tuesday's Asia session pushed through to a 52.657 YTD low as a false break. Price reclaimed that low as oil eased, and the NY session carried it above the 54.25 weekly open to a 54.538 week high. Wednesday's Asia session faded that move to the 53.967 Asia low, with price sitting on EMA(20) and RSI(14) back near the midline.
Support: 53.967, 53.00, 52.657
Resistance: 54.25, 54.538, 55.38
What it said to watch
Hourly closes above the 54.25 weekly open and the 54.538 week high would extend the Tuesday recovery toward the 55.38 old support
Acceptance below the 53.967 Asia low and the 38.2% retracement near 53.82 puts the 53.00 round number back in play
A break of the 52.657 ytd low would negate the false-break read and resume the downtrend
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Powell's presser at 18:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; Thursday's core PCE is the follow-through test
53.00–54.55 range after Thursday's breakdown, with a false break to 52.66 on Tuesday.
Thursday's oil-driven slide took silver below $55.38. Since then H1 has rotated inside a 53.00–54.55 band, with the 53.00 floor holding on Friday and again on Monday. Tuesday's dip to the 52.66 week low turned into a false break, and price reversed in a 1.88 rally to the range top at 54.54 as crude eased. Early Wednesday trade has faded back below the ema20/50 cluster near 54.06 and the 54.25 weekly open, with RSI(14) cooling into the mid-50s.
Support: 53.82, 53.00, 52.657
Resistance: 54.06, 54.25, 54.54
What it said to watch
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Powell's 18:30 UTC press conference could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the ema20/50 cluster and the 54.25 weekly open puts the 54.54 range top back in play; acceptance above it breaks the week's range
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib at 53.82 of Tuesday's rally exposes the 53.00 floor and the 52.66 week low
Thursday core PCE (f/c 0.3% m/m) as a follow-through catalyst for the range
02:04 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a range · RSI 49 · price 54.119
53.00–54.55 range since Friday after a false break below the floor.
Thursday's slide broke the 55.38 broken sup level as oil-driven Fed-hike bets lifted the dollar. Since Friday, price has rotated in a 53.00 range floor to 54.54 range top band. Tuesday's Asia dip to the 52.657 YTD low was reclaimed through London and NY as crude eased, a false break that stalled at the range top just under the 38.2% fib of the 57.69–52.66 drop. Early Wednesday price has slipped back to the converged EMA20/50 near 54.09 with RSI(14) at ~49, leaving momentum neutral into the Fed.
Support: 54.09, 53.00, 52.657
Resistance: 54.54, 55.38
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Powell's 18:30 UTC press conference could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 54.54 range top and the 38.2% fib opens the path to 55.38 broken sup
Failure to hold the ema20/50 cluster near 54.09 puts the 53.00 range floor back in focus
A break below the 52.657 YTD low would negate the false-break read and resume the downtrend
Thursday 12:30 UTC core PCE is a follow-through risk for the range
01:05 UTC
Downtrend, sharp bounce off week low now stalling · RSI 63 · price 54.351
Lower highs from Thursday; false break below 53.00 reversed into tight range under 38.2% fib.
Thursday's slide from 57.88 broke the 55.38 prior support. The 53.00 fri/mon low held through Friday and Monday NY dips. Tuesday's pre-London break to a 52.66 week low turned into a false break, and price rallied into the NY session to a 54.54 week high as oil eased on Middle East security talks. Price is now compressing in a 54.25–54.50 range, just above the weekly open and EMA(20) and capped below the 38.2% fib of the Thu-Tue decline, with RSI(14) flattening near 63 after the run.
Support: 54.25, 53.00, 52.657
Resistance: 54.538, 54.653, 55.38
What it said to watch
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Powell at 18:30 could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 54.54 week high and 38.2% fib at 54.65 opens the path to 55.38 prior supp
Failure to hold the weekly open at 54.25 and EMA(20) puts Tuesday's rising lows and the 53.00 fri/mon low back in focus
Break below the 52.66 week low resumes the Thursday downtrend
Thursday 12:30 UTC core PCE as a follow-through catalyst
00:04 UTC
Downtrend, basing with rebound off week low · RSI 64 · price 54.419
53.00–54.56 range after Thursday's breakdown; false break to 52.66 reclaimed.
Thursday's slide from 58.00 broke the 55.38 support and left a 53.00–54.56 range through Friday and Monday, with the range floor holding twice. Tuesday's Asia dip to a 52.66 week low, a fresh YTD low, failed to hold. Price rebounded through the London-NY transition as oil eased, and it is now pressing the range top. Price sits above EMA(20) near 54.00 with RSI(14) at about 64, and the fib 38.2% of the week's drop at 54.71 sits just above the range top.
Support: 54.00, 53.00, 52.657
Resistance: 54.557, 55.38
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 54.56 range top opens the 55.34–55.38 fib 50% / broken support zone
Failure to hold 54.00 and the EMA(20) returns price to the middle of the range
Close back below the 52.66 week low resumes the downtrend
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Powell presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Thu 12:30 UTC core PCE (f/c 0.3% m/m) is a follow-through catalyst