Lower highs into Friday's 3870 low; Monday range break, pullback to 23.6%.
The week ran lower from the post-FOMC spike at 4082.67. NY-session selling on Friday broke 3900 and printed a 3870.26 low. Monday gapped higher, and the NY open broke the 3891–3919 Asian/London range as crude slid on US-Iran diplomacy, tagging the 3970.36 monday high before the ISM beat capped follow-through. Price is now holding the 3937.5 pullback low just above EMA(20) near 3935 and the 38.2% rebound fib at 3932, while sitting on EMA(50) near 3948 with RSI(14) easing to ~62 from above 70.
Support: 3,937.50, 3,919.35, 3,891.20
Resistance: 3,970.36, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 3937.5 pullback low exposes the 3919 range top, where the 50% rebound fib sits
Loss of the 3891 monday low puts Friday's 3870 low back in view and restores the downtrend read
Close above the 3970.4 monday high opens the path to the 4000 round number
US midterm results (Tue) and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from FOMC spike; Monday range break higher, now pulling back.
Wednesday's FOMC spike to 4,082 marked the window high. A run of lower highs then carried gold through 4,000 to Friday's 3,870 yearly low. Monday held a 3,891–3,919 Asian range until an NY-hours break pushed it to a 3,970 Monday high as crude slid on US-Iran hopes and yields eased. That rally stalled between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the week's drop, and price now sits above EMA(20) near 3,935 but just under EMA(50) around 3,950, with RSI(14) cooling to ~57.
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 3,970 Monday high opens the 50% fib near 3,976 and the 4,000 psych handle
Loss of EMA(20) near 3,935 and the 3,919 range top puts price back inside Monday's Asian range, with the 3,870 yearly low back in view
Repeated failure to reclaim EMA(50) near 3,950 keeps the lower highs sequence intact
US midterm results and JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC (f/c 7.13M) could materially shift this read
A rebound in crude on faltering US-Iran talks would undercut the Monday rally
Lower highs intact below 3999; Monday range break off the 3870 low.
The week was dominated by the post-FOMC fade from Wednesday's 4082.67 high to a 3870.26 yearly low, with the heaviest leg into the NY session on Friday. Monday opened at 3892.71 (weekly open), held a 3891–3919 Asian range, then broke its range top in the London-NY transition as crude slid on US-Iran diplomacy, tagging a 3970.36 day high before rejection back below the 38.2% fib and EMA(50) near 3950. RSI(14) has cooled from ~66 to ~54, and price still sits above EMA(20) at ~3934, with the 3999 lower high and the $4,000 handle untested.
Support: 3,934.00, 3,919.35, 3,892.71
Resistance: 3,951.40, 3,970.36, 3,999.33
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 3970 day high and the 50% retracement at ~3976 opens a test of the 3999 lower high and $4,000 psych
Failure to hold EMA(20) near 3934 and a close back inside the Asian range below the 3919 range top puts the 3892 weekly open and 3870 yearly low back in view
Repeated closes below the 38.2% fib at ~3951 keep the rebound classed as corrective within the downtrend
US midterms (Tue 05:00 UTC) and JOLTS (Tue 15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via yields and Fed-hike pricing
Lower highs Wed–Fri; Monday range break, now pausing near 38.2%.
The decline from Wednesday's 4082.67 FOMC spike printed lower highs into Friday's first hour of NY and reached the 3870.26 yearly low. Monday held a 3891–3919 Asian and London range. It then broke higher at the London-NY transition as oil slid on US-Iran headlines and the USD hit one-week lows. The push stalled at the 3970.36 monday high, below the 50% retracement of the Wed–Fri decline near 3976. Price is now consolidating on the ema50 near 3950, with the ema20 rising toward 3933 and RSI(14) easing to ~60 from the mid-60s.
Support: 3,950.10, 3,919.35
Resistance: 3,970.36, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
H1 closes back below 3950 and the ema50 would put the breakout under pressure. The ema20 near 3933 and the 3919 range top are the next shelves.
Acceptance above the 3970 monday high opens the 50% retracement near 3976 and the 4000 round number.
A return below 3900 would re-expose the 3870 yearly low and the downtrend.
US midterms Tue (results overnight) and JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC (f/c 7.13M) could materially shift this read.
18:05 UTC
Downtrend this week, sharp counter-trend rebound now stalling · RSI 58 · price 3,958.53
Lower highs from 4082; Monday's 3891–3919 range broken higher, price pausing between 38.2% and 50% fib.
Gold spent the Asian and London sessions boxed in a 3891–3919 range above Friday's 3870 yearly low. In the first hours of NY it broke higher as oil and the USD eased on US-Iran diplomacy, printing a 3970 Monday high. The rebound has stalled just under the 50% fib of the 4082–3870 decline at 3976. The ISM-hour dip held the 38.2% fib near 3951, where EMA(50) also sits, and RSI(14) has cooled to 58 from 62. The week's broader structure is still a sequence of lower highs from 4082, with the 4000 round number marking Thursday's breakdown level.
Support: 3,951.40, 3,919.35, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,970.36, 3,976.47, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 38.2% fib at 3951 shifts focus back to the 3919 range top
Acceptance above the 3970 Monday high and the 50% fib at 3976 opens the path to the 4000 round number
A return inside the range top at 3919 would put the 3870 yearly low back in play
JOLTS (Tue 15:00 UTC) and midterm results overnight into Wed could reprice December hike odds and shift this read
Monday range break, price pressing Friday's breakdown zone.
Friday's liquidation-driven slide took gold from above $4,000 to the $3,870 yearly low, extending a lower-high sequence from Wednesday's $4,082 post-FOMC peak. Monday held a $3,891–3,919 range through Asia and London. An NY-session impulse then cleared the range top as oil and USD eased on US-Iran diplomacy, lifting price into Friday's $3,965–3,970 breakdown zone. Price sits above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 61, holding above the 38.2% fib at $3,951 and pressing the session high just under the 50% fib at $3,976.
Support: 3,951.40, 3,919.35, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,976.47, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 50% fib at 3976 and the session high opens the path to the 4000 psych / 61.8% fib area
Rejection here and a close back below the 38.2% fib at 3951 points to a retest of the 3919 range top
Loss of the 3870 yearly low would resume the week's downtrend sequence
Midterm results Tue night, JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC and ADP / ISM Services Wed could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4083; Monday range breakout retesting Friday's 3965 shelf.
The window is a downtrend from Wednesday's 4083 FOMC spike high. Friday's NY session drove the break through 4000 and the 3965 shelf to a 3870 yearly low, with RSI(14) deeply oversold. Monday held a 3891–3919 range through Asia and London before a NY-hours breakout, helped by a softer USD and lower oil on US-Iran hopes, carried price to the 3966 Monday high, a retest of Friday's breakdown shelf just above the 38.2% retracement of the 4083–3870 decline; the dip after the mixed ISM print held at 3950 near EMA(50), with RSI(14) back to ~62 and EMA(20) trailing near 3925.
Support: 3,950.00, 3,919.35, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,966.38, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 3966 Monday high clears Friday's breakdown shelf and opens the 50% fib near 3976, then the 4000 round number
Loss of 3950 and EMA(50) returns focus to the 3919 range top and EMA(20)
A break of the 3870 yearly low resumes the lower-low sequence
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC today and US midterm results overnight into Wednesday could materially shift this read
ADP and ISM Services on Wednesday are the next data risk for USD and Fed hike pricing
Week of lower highs/lows; Monday 3891-3919 range broken higher in NY.
Monday gapped up to 3892.71, above Friday's 3870.26 yearly low. Price then held a tight 3891–3919 range through Asia and London, with the 3900 prior cap tested repeatedly. In the first hours of NY the range top gave way and gold ran about $70 to 3966.38, tagging the July low that broke as a floor last week, as the USD stayed soft and oil eased ahead of ISM. Price now sits above EMA(20) near 3922 and the ema50 near 3949, around the 38.2% retracement of the week's decline from 4082.67, with RSI(14) lifting to ~58 from ~30 earlier in the day.
Support: 3,949.00, 3,919.00, 3,900.00
Resistance: 3,966.00, 3,977.00, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid (15:00 UTC, the current bar) could materially shift this read; a hot print risks a fade back toward the 3919 range top
H1 close above the 3966 july low and the 50% fib at 3977 opens the 4000 psych level and Friday's 3999 high
Failure to hold the ema50 near 3949 and a return below the 3919 range top would mark the move as a false break
Loss of the 3900 prior cap puts the 3870 yearly low back in focus
Fed's Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC and Tuesday's US midterms are further event risk
Lower highs from 4082.67; Monday broke the 3900 cap, stalled at 38.2%.
The week's dominant move came in Friday's NY session, when the slide from the 4,082.67 post-FOMC high cut through 4,000 and the July low near 3,965 to a 3,870.26 yearly low. Monday gapped higher and held a 3,891–3,919 range through Asia and London, then the first hour of NY broke the 3,900 prior cap and the 3,919 Monday high, reaching a 3,950.50 session high at the 38.2% retracement of the decline as softer oil and a weaker USD gave relief. Price now sits above EMA(20) near 3,915 but below EMA(50), with RSI(14) recovered to about 50 from oversold.
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid f/c 77) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the 3,919 Monday high and EMA(20) would turn the 3,900 break into a false break
Acceptance above the 3,950.50 session high and the 38.2% level exposes the broken July low near 3,965, then the 4,000 psych level
Loss of the 3,900 prior cap and the higher-low line from 3,870.26 reopens the yearly low
US midterms Tuesday add event risk to the bounce
13:04 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight range · RSI 44 · price 3,900.43
Lower highs from Wednesday's spike; Monday basing in a 3891–3919 range below EMA20.
Gold has dropped from Wednesday's 4082.67 spike to Friday's 3870.26 yearly low. The steepest leg came into the NY session Friday, as firm US data and oil above $117 kept December hike pricing elevated. Monday gapped up to 3892 and has held a 3891–3919 range: the Asia-session monday high stalled at the 23.6% fib of the week's drop, the London open printed the monday low, and price now sits just under EMA(20) near 3909.5. RSI(14) has recovered from oversold into the mid-40s without reclaiming 50, and the slight Monday lower highs show supply capping each bounce.
Support: 3,891.20, 3,870.30
Resistance: 3,909.50, 3,919.40, 3,951.40
What it said to watch
ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid 77) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 3919.4 monday high and the Monday lower highs line invalidates the range read and opens the path toward the 38.2% fib near 3951
Repeated rejection at ema20 near 3909.5 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Failure to hold the 3891.2 monday low exposes the 3870.3 yearly low; a break there extends the downtrend
Lower highs from the post-Fed 4082 peak; tight Monday range 3891–3919 below EMA20.
Gold peaked at 4082 into the NY session after Wednesday's Fed hold. It then printed lower highs, slid through 4000 in Friday's Asia and London sessions, and broke down in NY hours from the 3965 breakdown area to the 3870 yearly low as strong US data and oil kept hike pricing firm. Monday opened with a ~$17 gap up on oil-easing Iran headlines, but price has been held in a 3891–3919 range through Asia and London. The Monday high sits just under the 23.6% retracement of the week's decline, and price is pinned near 3900, below EMA20 around 3910, with RSI(14) recovering from the low 30s to around 41.
Support: 3,891.20, 3,870.30
Resistance: 3,910.00, 3,919.40, 3,965.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 3919 Monday high and 23.6% retracement (~3920) breaks the Monday range and exposes the 3965 breakdown area / 38.2% (~3951)
Failure to hold the 3891 Monday low re-exposes the 3870 yearly low; acceptance below it extends the lower-low sequence
Repeated H1 closes back under EMA20 (~3910) keep the rebound capped inside the downtrend
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; Monday boxed 3891–3919 under EMA(20).
Gold unwound the post-Fed 4,082 high through Thursday and Friday. The decline broke 4,000 and reached a 3,870 YTD low during Friday's NY session, driven by strong US data, oil-fuelled hike bets and cross-asset liquidation. The week opened with a gap up to 3,892, above Friday's 3,875.80 prior close. Since then price has held a tight 3,891–3,919 range: the Asian-session monday high stalled just under the 23.6% fib near 3,920, the London open tested the monday low, EMA(20) at 3,912 has capped closes, and RSI(14) has recovered only into the high 30s.
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 3,891 monday low opens a fill of the weekend gap to the 3,875.80 prior close, with the 3,870 ytd low just beneath
Failure to hold the 3,870 ytd low would confirm a fresh lower-low in the downtrend
An H1 close above the ema20 and the 3,919 monday high/23.6% fib breaks the Monday range and brings the 3,965 prior low (Friday's breakdown shelf) into view
Lower highs since Wednesday's 4082 spike; Monday range 3891–3919 holding below EMA20.
Gold has printed a lower-highs sequence since Wednesday's post-Fed spike to 4082. Hot US data and firm hike pricing fed Friday's NY-session break through the 3965 July low to a ytd low at 3870.26. The Monday rebound during Asia stalled at 3919, the monday high, where EMA(20) and the 23.6% retracement converge, and price has slipped back under the 3900 psych level into a tight 3891–3919 London range. RSI(14) sits near 38 after recovering from Friday's lows without reclaiming 50, and the bounce has the profile of a correction inside the broader decline.
Support: 3,891.23, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,900.00, 3,919.35, 3,951.40
What it said to watch
US ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 3919 monday high, EMA(20) and the lower-highs line invalidates the corrective-bounce read and opens the 38.2% fib near 3951
Failure to hold the 3891 monday low puts the 3870 ytd low back in play, and a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Sustained trade back above 3900 psych through the NY session would mark the first acceptance above Friday's breakdown zone
Lower highs from 4082.67; tight 3891–3919 range above the ytd low.
Lower highs since the post-Fed 4082.67 spike gave way to Friday's NY-session breakdown through 3965 and the 4000 handle. Strong US data and firm December hike pricing weighed, and the drop printed a 3870.26 ytd low. Monday's gap-up bounce in Asia stalled at 3919.35, the monday high and the 38.2% fib of Friday's leg, just above EMA(20) near 3914. London has faded the move back toward the monday low at 3891.23, with RSI(14) near 36, off oversold but well short of 50.
Support: 3,891.23, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,914.00, 3,919.35, 3,965.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the monday low at 3891.23 fills the weekend gap and exposes the 3870.26 ytd low
Holding above ema20 and the monday high at 3919.35 (38.2% fib) opens the 50–61.8% fib zone toward the 3965 breakdown level
ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
RSI(14) failing again below 50 on the next bounce keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Lower highs from 4,082.67; Monday consolidating above week low.
Gold printed a run of lower highs from Wednesday's 4,082.67 post-Fed spike. Friday's NY-session liquidation then broke the broken low at 3,965 and ran to a 3,870.26 week low, as strong US data and hike pricing weighed. Monday opened with a gap above Friday's 3,875.80 close and has held a narrow 3,891–3,919 Asian range on slight higher lows. The monday high is capping at the EMA(20) (~3,916) and the 23.6% fib (3,920), while RSI(14) has recovered only to ~38 from oversold.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the monday high and EMA(20) (3,916–3,920) opens the 38.2% fib at 3,951 and the broken low at 3,965
Failure to hold the monday low at 3,891 exposes the gap fill at 3,875.80 and the week low at 3,870.26
Round number 4,000 capped Friday's last rebound and marks the top of the lower-high sequence
ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the post-FOMC peak; Monday consolidating under EMA20.
Gold has printed lower highs since the post-FOMC 4082.67 peak. Friday's NY-session drop broke the thursday low at 3965 and reached a 3870 ytd low, as hawkish Fed pricing held and gold sold off alongside tech and BTC. Monday's Asia session has bounced from the week open on Iran-diplomacy USD softness, but the monday high at 3919 met rejection where EMA(20) (~3917) and the 23.6% fib of the decline converge. RSI(14) has recovered to around 40, and price is consolidating between the 3891 monday low and that cap, with the friday close at 3876 just below.
Support: 3,891.30, 3,875.80, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,919.35, 3,951.40, 3,965.25
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 3919 monday high and EMA(20) opens the path to the 38.2% fib near 3951 and the thursday low at 3965
Failure to hold the 3891 monday low exposes the friday close at 3876 and the 3870 ytd low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read via December hike odds
US-Iran diplomacy headlines and Brent above $117 remain swing factors for the USD and gold
Lower highs since Wednesday; gap-up bounce off week low.
Gold has printed lower highs since Wednesday's post-FOMC spike to 4082.67. Friday's NY session drove the break through the 3965 prior low and the 3900 round number to a 3870.26 week low, with RSI(14) dropping to the mid-teens. Monday's Asia session gapped higher on Iran-diplomacy USD softness and stalled at 3919, just under EMA(20) near 3920, which is also the 23.6% retracement of the week decline, while EMA(50) near 3960 caps the broader downtrend.
Support: 3,900.00, 3,891.30, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,920.00, 3,965.00, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 3920 (EMA20 / 23.6% of week decline) opens the 3951–3965 prior low zone
Loss of the 3900 round number and the 3891 Monday low would fill the weekend gap toward 3875.80
Break of the 3870.26 week low extends the lower-low sequence
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
4000 psych level marks the upper limit of any recovery within this downtrend
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 4082.67 high; gap-up rebound below EMA(20).
Gold has printed lower highs along a lower-high trendline since Wednesday's post-FOMC spike to 4082.67. The dominant leg came in Friday's NY session, when broad cross-asset liquidation on hawkish Fed pricing pushed price through the 3900 round number to a 3870.26 week low. Monday's Asia session gapped up to a 3892.7 open and reclaimed 3900, but price is capped at the 3915 Asia high, still below EMA(20) near 3926 and the 23.6% fib at 3920, with RSI(14) recovering only to the mid-30s.
Support: 3,900.00, 3,892.70, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,915.06, 3,965.25
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC today, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read; a hot print rebuilding hike odds would put the 3870.26 week low back in focus
H1 close above the 3915 Asia high and EMA(20) near 3926 would mark the first higher high since Friday's selloff
Failure to hold the 3900 round number and the 3892.7 Monday open would expose the unfilled gap toward Friday's 3875.8 close and the week low
A recovery toward the broken low at 3965 would test the 38.2–50% fib band (3951–3976) of the 4082–3870 decline
The lower-high trendline from Wednesday's 4082.67 high stays intact while price holds below 4000