Gold sold off from the $4,382 peak to a $3,960 low mid-window and has since settled into a broad $4,000–$4,200 range. Recent bars show a recovery off the 4021 swing low, with a softer USD after split FOMC minutes helping the bid, but the $4,180 cap has repeatedly rejected advances. ATR has compressed relative to the sharp mid-window declines, consistent with the range read.
Support: 4,021.00, 4,000.00, 3,960.00
Resistance: 4,180.00, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4180 would challenge the range cap toward 4200
Failure to hold 4021 reopens the 4000 floor and the 3960 low
US CPI Jul 14 is the dominant catalyst and could break this range
Sharp sell-off from the early-July 4382 peak bottomed near 3942, and price has since consolidated in a 4040-4200 range — caught between the $4,000 floor and the 4,200 cap flagged in the macro read. EMA20 and EMA50 have flattened close to current price with ATR steady, no directional conviction. The recovery off the 4021 swing low is stalling below the 4160 lower high.
Support: 4,040.00, 4,021.00
Resistance: 4,160.00, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4160 lower high opens a retest of the 4200 range cap
Loss of the 4040 range floor exposes the 4021 swing low
US CPI Jul 14 could materially shift this range read
17:04 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising near range floor · RSI 55 · price 4,128.07
Rolling over from 4380, ranging 4000-4200.
Gold has been rolling over since the 4380 peak, but the slide found a floor at the 4021 swing low and price has since clawed back to 4128, whipsawing inside a broad 4000-4200 range as oil-driven Fed-hike bets cap rallies against persistent central-bank buying. The 4200 range cap has rejected recoveries twice while the 4000 psych floor holds. ATR(14) is moderate — no decisive expansion yet, consistent with two-way chop into the CPI pivot.
Support: 4,021.00, 4,000.00, 3,959.00
Resistance: 4,160.00, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 14 Jul 12:30 UTC — the pivot that could break this range read
Close above 4160 swing high, then 4200 range cap, would invalidate the rolling-over read
Failure to hold the 4021 swing low / 4000 psych floor opens deeper downside toward 3959
17:04 UTC
Range-bound, no clear direction · RSI 52 · price 4,128.07
Choppy range between 4000 floor and 4200 cap.
Gold has whipsawed inside a broad 4000-4200 range over the last two weeks, spiking to ~4380 early before rolling over to a 3959 low, then oscillating on US-Iran/oil-inflation headlines and revived Fed-hike bets. Price is recovering off the 4021 swing low and is now back above the EMA20/EMA50 cluster near 4128, with the falling structure capping rallies below the 4186-4202 prior highs. ATR remains elevated, reflecting the persistent two-way volatility rather than a directional trend.
Support: 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,186.00
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 14 Jul 12:30 UTC is the pivot — could materially shift this range read
Sustained close above 4202 swing high would break the range cap
Loss of the 4021 swing low reopens the 4000 psych floor
Gold rolled over from the 4202 swing high into the low-4000s as the oil-driven inflation/rate-hike channel kept the dollar bid, printing a lower low at 4021 before demand stepped in and lifted price back to 4108. Structure is a lower-high sequence bounded by a broad 4021-4202 range; ATR remains elevated, reflecting the two-way volatility of the past two weeks. Price now sits between the 4021 four-day low and the 4160 prior high, with EMA50 offering nearby support and EMA20 capping just overhead.
Support: 4,021.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,160.00, 4,202.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below 4021 confirms a lower low, exposing the 4000 psych floor
H4 close above 4160 opens the path back to the 4202 swing high
US CPI on Jul 14 12:30 UTC is the key catalyst for the rate-hike narrative and could reset this range
09:04 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 49 · price 4,107.18
Lower highs below 4200, basing near 4000-4021.
Gold has rolled over from the 4380 peak into a lower-high sequence, capped at 4202 and pressed sub-4100 to a 4021 four-day low as Iran/oil headlines revived USD and yield strength. Buyers stepped in around 4000-4021 — the psychological floor cushioned by PBoC demand — and price is now reclaiming the 4100 pivot. ATR remains elevated, keeping the 4000-4200 range in play.
Support: 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,145.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4145 then 4200 would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4021 low and 4000 psych floor confirms downside continuation
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC + Williams 13:00 UTC today could shift this read
US CPI on Jul 14 is the decisive catalyst for the range
Gold has been carving lower highs since the 4380 peak, driven by the oil-to-inflation-to-rates channel and hawkish FOMC minutes that revived Fed-hike bets. Price flushed sub-4100 to a 4021 four-day low before demand around the 4000 psych floor stemmed the slide, and the last few bars are now retesting the 4100 pivot from below. ATR remains elevated, so this is a volatile recovery within a broader downtrend, still under both EMAs.
Support: 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,180.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4100 pivot then 4180 swing high would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 4021 opens the path to the 4000 psych floor
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Williams 13:00 UTC could shift the read
05:04 UTC
Downtrend fading into range · RSI 43 · price 4,062.80
Lower highs since 4380 peak, ranging 4000-4200.
Gold has carved a series of lower highs since the 4382 peak and now trades heavy near 4060, capped by hawkish FOMC minutes and an Iran-driven oil bid supporting USD. Price is boxed between the 4021 four-day low / 4000 psych floor and the 4100 pivot, with the 4180 zone repeatedly rejecting recovery attempts. ATR(14) shows swings widening on the recent flush, keeping the range edges active.
Support: 4,021.00, 4,000.00, 3,959.00
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,180.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below 4000 psych confirms a lower-low toward 3959
Reclaim of 4100 pivot opens the path back to the 4180 rej cap
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and CPI Jul 14 could reset this range read
05:04 UTC
Downtrend within broader range · RSI 41 · price 4,062.80
Lower highs since the 4200 rejection.
Gold rolled over from the 4180-4200 rejection cap and is printing lower highs, now sitting near the 61.8% retrace of the 3959-4202 leg around 4052-4062. Price trades below both EMA20 and EMA50 as hawkish FOMC minutes and a firm USD keep rallies contained. The broader 4000-4200 range still frames the tape, with official-sector demand repeatedly cited around the 4000 floor.
Support: 4,021.00, 4,000.00, 3,959.00
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below 4021 four-day low confirms a lower-low toward the 4000 psych floor
Reclaim of 4100 pivot needed to challenge the descending lower-high structure
Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Fed's Williams 13:00 UTC could shift this read
US CPI Jul 14 is the week's primary catalyst
01:04 UTC
Downtrend, rolling over · RSI 42 · price 4,080.31
Lower highs, holding above 4040.
Gold rolled over from the 4203 swing high and has printed successive lower highs, with price now grinding sub-4100 under both EMA20 and EMA50 after Hormuz-driven oil and a firm USD capped the rebound off the 3941 low. Supply has repeatedly capped near 4130, while the 4040 swing low is holding as the immediate floor. ATR(14) is moderate, consistent with a controlled drift rather than an impulsive leg.
Support: 4,040.00, 4,000.00, 3,960.00
Resistance: 4,130.00, 4,203.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below 4040 opens the path toward 4000 psych and the range low near 3960
Reclaim of 4130 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
US Jobless Claims + Williams today could shift USD and this read
01:04 UTC
Downtrend, rolling over · RSI 43 · price 4,080.31
Lower highs from 4200, sub-4100 heavy.
Gold has rolled over from the 4200 retest, printing lower highs and slipping sub-4100 as the digest flags a firm USD and oil-driven inflation fears capping rallies. The 4040 swing low held on the last flush and price is grinding back toward 4080, but ATR remains elevated after the sweep down to 3959. Structure stays heavy while price trades below the 4133 prior high.
Support: 4,040.00, 4,000.00, 3,959.00
Resistance: 4,133.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4133 breaks the lower-high sequence and eases the downtrend read
Failure to hold 4040 opens the path toward the 4000 psych level and 3959 low
Jobless Claims + Williams today, and US CPI Jul 14, could materially shift this read