Lower highs and lower lows all week; Friday range 3867–3923 under falling EMAs.
Monday's push to 4148.52 reversed after Tuesday's hot US CPI, and NY-session selling on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday carved lower highs and lower lows down to the 3852.50 week low as yields and the USD climbed. Friday's Asia bounce stalled at the 3923.11 Friday high, right at the 23.6% retracement of the week drop fib and just above EMA(50) at 3921.99. After the soft PPI, the move back over the 3900 round number failed in NY hours and left a line of Friday's lower highs. Price sits below EMA(20) at 3889.75, RSI(14) has held a 35–49 band since Friday's high and ATR has eased from about 1730 to 1515 pips, so the range is compressing above the Friday low at 3867.67.
Support: 3,867.67, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,889.75, 3,900.00, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 3900 round number and EMA(20) would break Friday's lower highs
Reclaim of the 3923.11 Friday high and EMA(50) would end the week's lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 3867.67 Friday low exposes the 3852.50 week low; a break there extends the lower-low structure
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and Chair Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC (50 bp signalling) could materially shift this read
US Retail Sales Tue 13:30 UTC is the next data test for the yield-driven move
Lower highs since Monday; tight base above weekly low.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's 4148.52 peak. Tuesday's hot US CPI broke the NY session lower, and Thursday's NY selling reached the 3852.5 weekly low as Fed hike pricing and 5.15% 10y yields weighed. Friday's Asia-session bounce stalled at 3923.11, the friday high, which lines up with the 23.6% retracement of the week's drop and EMA(50) at 3921.99. Price then slipped back below EMA(20) at 3889.75 after a soft PPI and failed to reclaim the 3900 pivot, while RSI(14) held in a 35–49 band without reaching 50 and ATR eased from 1727 to 1515 pips as the base above the friday low tightened.
Support: 3,867.67, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,889.75, 3,900.00, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 3900 pivot and the Friday lower-highs trendline challenges the downtrend read
Failure to hold the friday low at 3867.67 exposes the 3852.5 weekly low
A reclaim of the 3923 friday high / 23.6% fib would mark the first higher high since Monday
Fed Chair Warsh Monday 17:00 UTC, with Jefferson tonight, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday's 4148.52 peak; Friday consolidation 3867–3923 above the 3852.50 week low.
Gold has fallen hard since Monday's 4148.52 high. The breakdown started in Tuesday's NY session after the hot CPI print and extended into Thursday's NY hours to the 3852.50 week low as hike pricing and yields climbed. Friday's Asia bounce to the 3923.11 Friday high, almost level with EMA(50) at 3923.63, faded. The softer PPI only produced a spike to 3905.95 before another rejection below the 3900 pivot. Price sits below both a falling EMA(20) at 3890.6 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) capped at 35–49 all day.
Support: 3,867.67, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,890.60, 3,900.00, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
H1 close back above EMA(20) at 3890.6 and the 3900 pivot would break Friday's lower-highs trendline
Loss of the 3867.67 Friday low exposes the 3852.50 week low; a break there extends the Monday–Thursday drop
Reclaim of the 3923.11 Friday high, alongside EMA(50), would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and Chair Warsh on Monday 17:00 UTC could gap or materially shift this read at the reopen
Lower highs from 4148; tight 3852–3923 consolidation since Thursday.
Tuesday's hot CPI in the NY session broke gold off the 4148 week high. Thursday's NY open drove a second leg to the 3852 yearly low, a slide of about $296. Friday's Asia-London bounce stalled at 3923, the friday high, almost exactly at the 23.6% fib of that move. The soft PPI then spiked price to 3906, but the gain faded back under the downward-sloping EMA(20) at 3891.89 and the 3900 psych level during NY hours. Price sits below both EMAs, RSI(14) is held at 35–48 since Friday morning, and the friday low at 3867.67 sits just above the yearly low, giving a shallow higher low.
Support: 3,867.67
Resistance: 3,891.89, 3,900.00, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 3900 psych and the ema20 would break the pattern of Friday rallies fading below it
Close above the 3923 friday high (23.6% fib) opens the path toward the 38.2% retracement near 3966
Failure to hold the 3867.67 friday low exposes the 3852 yearly low; a break there resumes the downtrend
Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC and Retail Sales Tue 13:30 UTC are the next high-impact risks
Impulsive lower highs and lower lows from 4148.52; Friday bounce capped, consolidating 3867–3906.
Gold has dropped about $296 from Monday's 4148.52 high to Thursday's 3852.50 week low. Each leg came during the NY session, starting with the hot CPI break on Tuesday, and was reinforced by hawkish Fed repricing and a firm USD. Friday's Asia-session bounce stalled at 3923.11 (Friday high), right at the 23.6% retracement of the week's drop. The slightly soft PPI then only produced a lower PPI high at 3905.95 before price slipped back toward the Friday low. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 3893.67 and EMA(50) at 3927.54, and RSI(14) has lifted from 29.4 to 40.4 without reclaiming 50.
Support: 3,867.67, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,893.67, 3,905.95, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 3867.67 Friday low puts the 3852.50 week low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
H1 close above the EMA(20) and the 3905.95 PPI high breaks the Friday lower highs line
Reclaiming the 3923.11 Friday high (23.6% of the week's drop) would shift the read from pause to deeper retracement
Fed Jefferson speech Sat 00:00 UTC and the weekend gap risk into Monday could reset the opening level
Fed Chair Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC is the main event risk for the 3852.50 week low
Monday's push to 4148 reversed on Tuesday's hot CPI print in the NY session. Gold then lost 4000 and 3950 on successive days and set a 3852.50 yearly low into NY hours Thursday, carving a clean lower-highs trendline. Friday's Asia bounce stalled at 3923, the friday high and almost exactly the 23.6% retracement of the week's drop. The softer PPI spike to 3906 met rejection under 3900, and price now sits below a flattening ema20 (3895) and a falling ema50 (3929), with RSI(14) recovered from 27.7 Thursday to 42.1 but unable to clear 50.
Support: 3,867.67, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,895.02, 3,923.11, 3,929.44
What it said to watch
H1 close above the friday high at 3923 and the ema50 near 3929 would break the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
Failure to hold the friday low at 3867.67 puts the 3852.50 yearly low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Holding back below ema20 near 3895 keeps the 3900 pivot as a cap on Friday's consolidation
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC lands over the weekend close, so Monday's open carries gap risk
Fed Chair Warsh, Mon 17:00 UTC, could materially shift this read in either direction
Lower highs since Monday's 4148 top; post-low range 3852–3923 capped at 3900.
Gold has sold off from Monday's 4148 high since Tuesday's hot CPI, with the heaviest leg into Thursday's NY session reaching the 3852.5 week low. Friday's Asian high at 3923 stalled near the 23.6% fib of that move. The softer PPI pop met rejection at 3905.95 (the ppi high), and price has slipped back below both EMAs toward the 3867.67 session low. RSI(14) recovered from 26 on Thursday but has cycled 35–43 since, and EMA(20) at 3896 is sloping lower and capping each bounce.
Support: 3,867.67, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,896.03, 3,905.95, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 3896 and the 3905.95 ppi high would ease the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 3867.67 session low exposes the 3852.5 week low; a break there confirms a fresh lower-low
Acceptance above the 3923 Asian high (23.6% fib) is needed to challenge the lower-highs line near 3930
Fed's Daly (now) and Jefferson (00:00 UTC) could shift this read into the weekly close; Warsh on Monday is the larger risk
Lower highs all week (4148 → 4067 → 3923); price back near the week low.
Gold has printed a sequence of lower highs since Monday's 4148.52 peak. The hot CPI print broke it through 4050 in Tuesday's NY session, and Thursday's NY session dragged it to the 3852.50 week low on hawkish Fed repricing. Friday's Asia-session bounce stalled at the 3923.11 friday high, close to the 23.6% fib of the weekly slide. The soft PPI pop to the 3905.95 ppi high faded back under ema20 (3897.76), which is now rolling lower. RSI(14) has recovered from 26 to 35.7 while price holds just above the week low, and ATR stays elevated near 1705 pips.
Support: 3,852.50, 3,800.00
Resistance: 3,897.76, 3,905.95, 3,923.11
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 3852.50 week low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 3800 round number in view
Acceptance back above ema20 and the 3905.95 ppi high would break the lower-highs line and ease the downtrend read
Fed's Daly at 17:00 UTC (under an hour away) and Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could jolt this H1 structure
Fed Chair Warsh on Mon 17:00 UTC is the high-impact test for the weekly downtrend; a rally through the 3923.11 friday high would mark the first higher high since Monday
Lower highs since Monday; 3852–3923 consolidation after Thursday flush.
Gold has printed lower highs from Monday's 4148.52 peak. The heaviest legs came during NY hours: first on Tuesday's hot CPI, then Thursday's flush to the 3852.50 yearly low. Friday's Asia-session bounce met rejection at 3923.11, the 23.6% retracement of the week's drop, and the post-PPI fade has held only at the 3872.87 PPI low. Price sits below the flattening EMA(20) at 3900.31 and the falling EMA(50) at 3935.79, while RSI(14) recovered from sub-30 to 48.7 before slipping back to 43.2 and ATR compresses inside the consolidation.
Support: 3,872.87, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,900.31, 3,923.11, 3,935.79
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 3923.11 Friday high (23.6% fib) would break the Friday lower-highs sequence
Holding below EMA(20) near 3900 keeps the bounce capped; the EMA(50) at 3935.79 is the next overhead marker
Failure to hold the 3872.87 PPI low exposes the 3852.50 yearly low; a break there extends the downtrend
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) today, and Warsh on Monday, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday's 4148 peak; tight consolidation above the yearly low.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's 4148 peak. Tuesday's hot CPI and Thursday's hawkish Fed repricing drove the two biggest legs lower during NY hours, down to the 3852.50 yearly low. The Asia-session bounce to the 3923 friday high stalled at the 23.6% retracement of the week's drop, and the softer PPI headline lifted price only briefly to 3906. It met rejection under the flattening EMA(20) at 3900.94, and the PPI low sits at 3872.96. RSI(14) has recovered from 22.6 oversold to 48.7 and slipped back to 35.1, while ATR has eased to 1641 pips from about 1980, consistent with consolidation below EMA(20) and EMA(50) rather than a reversal.
Support: 3,872.96, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,900.94, 3,923.11, 3,937.48
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 3872.96 ppi low exposes the 3852.50 yearly low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
H1 close above the 3923.11 friday high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the consolidation-under-ema20 read, with ema50 at 3937.48 next
Repeated H1 closes back above ema20 at 3900.94 would mark the $3,900 pivot reclaimed
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read if either backs a 50 bp December hike
Lower highs below EMA(20) after the Thursday flush, compressed range above 3885.
The week's dominant move is a ~$296 slide from Monday's 4148.52 high to Thursday's 3852.50 yearly low, with the hot Tuesday CPI and hawkish Fed repricing driving the heaviest legs during NY hours. Friday's Asia-session bounce stalled at 3923.11, the friday high, right at the 23.6% retracement of the weekly drop. Price has since slipped back below the ema20 at 3903.03 on lower highs into a session low of 3885.79, with RSI(14) easing from 48.7 to 38.2 after leaving oversold Thursday and ATR compressing into PPI.
Support: 3,885.79, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,903.03, 3,923.11, 3,939.79
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman (15:50) and Daly (17:00), could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the ema20 at 3903.03 and then the friday high at 3923.11 breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the ema50 at 3939.79
Failure to hold the 3885.79 session low exposes the 3852.50 yearly low
ATR compression from 2060 to 1513 pips sets up a range expansion on the data
Lower highs and lower lows; Friday bounce capped at the 23.6% fib, price back below EMA(20).
Tuesday's hot CPI turned Monday's 4,148.52 peak into a lower-high sequence. The heaviest leg came at the London-NY transition on Thursday, which drove price to the 3,852.50 yearly low with RSI(14) at 18.8. Friday's Asia-session bounce stalled at the 3,923.11 friday high, almost exactly the 23.6% fib of the week's drop. Price has since slipped back under the EMA(20) at 3,904.49, where it is basing above the 3,886.46 session low with RSI at 39.8 and ATR compressing from 2,073 to 1,547 pips.
Support: 3,886.46, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,904.49, 3,923.11, 3,941.85
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (in ~87 min) could materially shift this read, with Bowman (15:50) and Daly (17:00) to follow
H1 close back above the ema20 at 3,904.49 and the friday high at 3,923.11 opens the ema50 at 3,941.85 and the 38.2% fib near 3,965
Failure to hold the 3,886.46 session low exposes the 3,852.50 yearly low; a close below it extends the lower-low sequence
RSI(14) holding the 40s keeps the bounce structure intact; a slide back toward 30 confirms the rejection at the 23.6% fib
11:02 UTC
Downtrend, bounce faded · RSI 39 · price 3,890.88
Lower highs since Monday's 4148.52 peak; tight range above yearly low.
Gold reversed from Monday's 4148.52 high after Tuesday's hot US CPI. It then printed three days of lower highs, with the heaviest leg during Thursday's NY session to the 3852.50 yearly low as the hawkish Fed chorus lifted USD. Friday's Asia high at 3923.11 was rejected almost exactly at the 23.6% fib of the week's sell-off. Price has slipped back below ema20 at 3905.7 to test the friday low at 3888.44, with RSI(14) fading from 48.7 to 38.8 and ATR compressing from 2072 to 1580 pips.
Support: 3,888.44, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,905.70, 3,923.11, 3,943.84
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read, followed by Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC
An H1 close below the 3888.44 friday low exposes the 3852.50 yearly low
Reclaiming ema20 at 3905.7 and closing above the 3923.11 asia high would break the lower-highs trendline, with ema50 at 3943.84 the next cap
Lower highs from Tuesday's 4146 peak; base forming above 3852 yearly low.
Monday's push to 4148 on a softer USD reversed on Tuesday's hot CPI, and the slide ran three straight sessions into a 3852.5 yearly low during Thursday's NY session as hawkish Fedspeak lifted the dollar. Friday's Asia-session bounce to the 3923 friday high faded into a 3888 friday low, and price is now pinned just under a flattening EMA(20) at 3907 with EMA(50) at 3946 still falling. RSI(14) has recovered from 18.7 to 42.8 and ATR is compressing from 2073 to 1580 pips, so the selling has paused rather than turned.
Support: 3,888.44, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,907.20, 3,923.11, 3,945.98
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~3.5h) can break this consolidation either way; core YoY f/c 5%
H1 close above the 3923 friday high and holding EMA(20) would show the bounce extending toward the EMA(50) and lower-high line near 3940-3946
Failure to hold the 3888 friday low breaks the higher-low line and puts the 3852.5 yearly low back in play
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) after PPI could reset the read
Lower highs from Monday's 4148.52 top; consolidation above the yearly low.
Monday's NY-session high at 4148.52 marked the week's top. Tuesday's hotter-than-expected US CPI started a selloff that ran through every session, with Thursday's NY session breaking 3900 to a 3852.50 yearly low. Friday's Asia bounce met rejection at the 3923.11 Asia high, right at the 23.6% retracement of the weekly move, and price has slipped back below the EMA(20) at 3907.79 into consolidation above the 3888.44 Friday low; RSI(14) has faded from 48.7 to 40, ATR is compressing and the EMA(50) at 3947.80 is still sloping lower.
Support: 3,888.44, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,907.79, 3,923.11, 3,947.80
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 3923.11 Asia high and 23.6% retrace would be the first break in the lower-high sequence since Wednesday
H1 close above the ema50 at 3947.80 would undercut the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 3888.44 Friday low reopens the 3852.50 yearly low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%), then Bowman 15:50 UTC and Daly 17:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday's peak; bounce capped below 23.6% fib.
Gold has carved lower highs since Monday's $4,148.52 week high. The two dominant legs lower came in NY hours, first on Tuesday's hot CPI print and then on Thursday's slide to the $3,852.50 yearly low, as hawkish Fed repricing lifted the USD. Friday's Asia session bounce stalled at the $3,923.11 Asian high, right at the 23.6% fib of the week's decline, and price has slipped back below the EMA(20) at $3,908.98 with RSI(14) at 40.2 after sub-20 readings on Thursday; late Asia's $3,888.44 session low is the first floor, with the EMA(50) at $3,949.89 overhead.
Support: 3,888.44, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,908.98, 3,923.11, 3,949.89
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print would put the $3,852.50 yearly low back in focus
Failure to hold the $3,888.44 session low exposes the yearly low and resumes the lower-low sequence
H1 close above the ema20 and the $3,923.11 Asian high opens the 38.2% fib near $3,965, with the lower-high line from Monday's peak near the ema50 in between
Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) remarks after PPI could extend or reverse any data reaction
Lower highs from Monday's peak; Asia rebound rejected at 23.6% fib.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's 4148.52 peak. Tuesday's hot CPI and Thursday's NY-session break to the 3852.50 yearly low drove the dominant legs. Friday's Asia session bounce met rejection at 3923.11, the 23.6% fib of the week's drop, and price has slipped back under a flattening EMA(20) at 3910.22 as RSI(14) eased to 41.4 from 48.7, having recovered from 18.7, with EMA(50) at 3952.04 and the lower-highs trendline overhead.
Support: 3,888.44, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,910.22, 3,923.11, 3,952.04
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~6h), then Fed's Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
An H1 close back above the 3923.11 Asia high and EMA(20) would put EMA(50) at 3952.04 and the lower-highs trendline in play
Failure to hold the 3888.44 Asia low reopens the 3852.50 yearly low
A break below the 3852.50 yearly low extends the lower-low sequence
Lower highs since Monday's peak; Friday bounce stalled near the 23.6% fib, back below EMA(20).
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's 4148.52 peak. Tuesday's hot CPI started the slide, and Thursday's NY-session flush took price to the 3852.5 ytd low as the USD and yields pushed higher. Friday's Asia session bounce stalled at the 3923.11 bounce high, right at the 23.6% retracement of the week's drop. The last close at 3904.03 has slipped back below the EMA(20) at 3911.22, and RSI(14) has recovered from 18.7 to 42.6 but has not reclaimed 50. Nearest floors are the 3900 round number and the 3892.48 session low. Overhead, the EMA(50) at 3954.14 sits with Thursday's 3955 high and the lower-highs line.
Support: 3,900.00, 3,892.48, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,911.22, 3,923.11, 3,954.14
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.3%, core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 3923 bounce high and EMA(20) would extend the recovery toward the 38.2% fib near 3966 and the ema50 / lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 3892.5 session low exposes the 3852.5 ytd low; a break there resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) during NY hours are follow-on risk after PPI
Lower highs from Monday peak; Friday higher lows off week low.
Gold has given back about $296 from Monday's 4148.52 high to Thursday's 3852.50 week low. The two heaviest legs came in the NY session: Tuesday's hot CPI print and Thursday's breakdown below 3950 as Fed repricing and a firm USD extended. Friday's Asia session bounce has lifted price back above EMA(20) at 3911.98 and stalled at the 3923 asia high, close to the 23.6% retracement of the week fib. Price is still below a falling EMA(50) at 3956.18, and RSI(14) has recovered from below 20 to 45.7.
Support: 3,911.98, 3,872.19, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,923.11, 3,956.18, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 3923 asia high and the 23.6% week fib opens the path to the ema50 at 3956.18
Loss of the ema20 and the bounce lows line puts the 3872 range base and the 3852.50 week low back in focus
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~8.5h), then Bowman and Daly during NY hours, could materially shift this read
The 4000 psych level sits above the ema50 as the larger recovery hurdle and is the 38.2–50% fib zone
Lower highs and lower lows from Monday's high; Asia range break off the 3852 yearly low.
Gold has carved a clean H1 downtrend from Monday's 4148.52 high. Tuesday's hot US CPI print triggered the break in NY hours, and Thursday's London and NY selling extended it to a 3852.50 yearly low. Asia has since lifted price back above EMA(20) at 3911.91 and through the lower-high line from Wednesday's 4066.97, with RSI(14) recovering from sub-20 readings to 48.7. Thursday's London low at 3924.62 is capping the bounce near the 23.6% retracement, with EMA(50) at 3957.96 just above the 3954.81 lower high as the next resistance cluster.
Support: 3,911.91, 3,884.34, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,924.62, 3,954.81, 3,957.96
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%), followed by Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
H1 close above the London low at 3924.62 opens the path to the 3954.81 lower high and EMA(50) at 3957.96
Rejection at the EMA(50) cluster would keep the lower-high sequence intact
Loss of EMA(20) and the 3884 Asia base puts the 3852.50 yearly low back in play
Lower highs from Monday's peak; bounce reclaiming ema20 below ema50.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's NY-session peak at 4148.52. Tuesday's hot US CPI broke the structure, and each NY session since has extended the slide, ending at Thursday's 3852.50 yearly low. In today's Asia session price climbed back above the ema20 at 3910.99 as RSI(14) recovered to 46.7 from sub-20 readings, a mild bullish divergence across Thursday's two lows, and the bounce is pressing the 23.6% fib near 3922 just under Thursday's 3928 London low, with the 3955 lower high, the ema50 at 3959.48 and the lower-highs trendline clustered above.
Support: 3,910.99, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,928.18, 3,954.81, 3,959.48
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the ema20 at 3911 and the 3887 range top from Thursday's late consolidation would return focus to the 3852.50 yearly low
Acceptance above the 3928 London low and the 23.6% fib opens the 3955 lower high and the ema50 at 3959
Lower-highs trendline near 3958 stays intact until an H1 close above it
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%), then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday; Asia rebound into falling ema20.
Gold opened the week near 4061 and rallied to 4148.52 into Monday's NY session, but Tuesday's hot CPI flipped the tape, with NY sessions driving each leg lower through 4000 to Thursday's 3852.5 yearly low as yields and DXY pushed higher. After holding a 3872–3887 range floor overnight, an Asia session bounce has lifted price to the falling ema20 at 3910.5, with RSI(14) recovering from sub-20 readings to 43.5 and the close still just below the line. Above sits the Thursday breakdown area near 3955 and the ema50 at 3961.27, close to the 38.2% fib of the week's drop.
Support: 3,872.19, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,910.50, 3,961.27
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, with Bowman and Daly after, could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 3955 breakdown area and ema50 at 3961.27 would break the lower-high sequence
Rejection at ema20 and a close below the 3872 range floor exposes the 3852.5 yearly low
Lower highs and lower lows from Monday's 4148 high; tight base above 3852.
Gold reversed from Monday's 4148 week high after Tuesday's hot CPI print. It has carved lower highs since, with the heaviest legs coming in NY hours on Tuesday and Thursday down to the 3852 yearly low. Price is now compressing in a 3870–3891 range below a falling EMA(20) at 3910.76 and EMA(50) at 3963.44, with RSI(14) back at 32 from sub-20 readings and ATR easing off its Thursday peak.
Support: 3,870.00
Resistance: 3,910.76, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 near 3911 and the lower-highs trendline would mark the first break in this week's sequence
Thursday's 3955 breakdown shelf sits just below the 38.2% fib of the week's drop; a recovery there tests where supply re-emerges
4000 psych level stands as the larger cap above the breakdown zone
Loss of the 3870 range floor reopens the 3852 yearly low
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%), then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday; tight range above 3852 low.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's 4148.52 peak. Tuesday's hot CPI broke the week's open area, and Thursday's NY-hours liquidation set a yearly low at 3852.5 as 10y yields and the DXY pressed higher. Price has since compressed into a 3870–3887.6 range below a falling ema20 at 3913.4, with RSI(14) oversold for most of the last 20 bars and ATR easing off its 2073-pip peak. The lower-highs line from Wednesday's 4066.97 high runs just above the range top, with the 23.6% fib of the week's slide near 3922 and Thursday's 3955.5 lower high beyond.
Support: 3,870.26, 3,852.50
Resistance: 3,887.60, 3,913.40, 3,955.50
What it said to watch
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.3%) could materially shift this read; Bowman and Daly follow
H1 close above the 3887.6 range top and the lower-highs line puts the ema20 at 3913.4 in play
Failure to hold the 3870.26 range low exposes the 3852.5 yearly low
Acceptance below the 3852.5 yearly low extends the downtrend into fresh lows
Reclaim of the 3955.5 lower high (38.2% fib zone) would break the lower-highs sequence