AI Market Pulse, Thursday, 5 November 2026

The AI’s last read of the day on each major currency, gold, silver, oil and bitcoin.

• USD

  USD clawing back post-blue-sweep losses on firm jobs data and hawkish Fedspeak. DXY ~101.70 into NFP (f/c 65K). December hike is priced; political drag caps upside.

  USD reversed Wednesday's election-led sell-off on Thursday.

• EUR

  EUR supported by a priced-in hawkish ECB but capped as USD rebounds; EUR/USD ~1.1220 off 1.1268 high, with US NFP and Fed December-hike odds now the main driver.

  EUR/USD gave back early gains from 1.1268 to around 1.1220 as the USD recovered from its post-midterm sell-off, helped by low US jobless claims and hawkish Fed remarks.

• GBP

  GBP capped despite a hawkish 9-0 BoE hike to 4%. Cable slipped back under 1.3500 to ~1.3467 as firm US data and Fed hawks offset it; hike plus hawkish split looks priced.

  The BoE hiked 25bp to 4.00%, its first hike since 2023, with all nine members voting to tighten (Mann wanted 50bp) versus a 7-2 forecast.

• JPY

  JPY firmer on US tech-led risk-off and hawkish BoJ minutes, but USD/JPY stays inside a 157.39–158.76 range. Firm US data/Fed hike bets and structural outflows cap Yen gains.

  Hawkish BoJ September minutes said members saw room to keep raising rates, with one urging moves 'relatively soon'.

• CHF

  CHF firm after the hot 1.5% CPI revived SNB-hike talk. USD/CHF is consolidating 0.8125–0.8185 after a two-day slide. Friday's US NFP is the swing factor; Schlegel added little new.

  USD/CHF bounced from a ~two-month low near 0.8124–0.8135 to around 0.8176 as the dollar stabilised after the midterm sell-off.

• AUD

  AUD/USD is holding just above 0.7000 on USD weakness after the Democratic midterm sweep, not on Aussie strength. The dovish RBA hike caps upside, so US payrolls now decide which way the 0.6970–0.7040 range breaks.

  AUD/USD consolidated around 0.7010 after rebounding from 0.6954 to as high as 0.7022, helped by a broadly softer USD, falling US yields and improved risk appetite.

• CAD

  CAD firm near 7-week highs vs USD (USD/CAD ~1.39s) on a weak dollar and a hawkish Macklem, but soft growth data and swinging oil cap it into Friday's jobs data.

  USD/CAD held near its lowest since Sept 16 around mid-1.3900s as the post-midterm USD selloff continued, though Fed-hike bets and softer oil limited the downside.

• NZD

  NZD/USD bounce off the 0.5564 18-month low is USD-driven, not homegrown. Weak NZ jobs, a dovish RBNZ and the Nov 7 election cap it below 0.5650-0.5660 into US NFP.

  NZD/USD extended its recovery to a 1-week+ high at 0.5655-0.5660.

• XAU/USD

  Gold bid above $4,100 as the tech rout and falling yields cut December hike odds to 66%. Rally from the $3,870 low is extended into a hawkish-leaning NFP.

  Gold rose about 1% on Thursday and is back above $4,100, bouncing from a $4,057 daily low after an earlier intraday high of $4,146.

• XAG/USD

  XAG rebounding off ~$48.5 YTD lows on post-midterm USD/yield slide, but stalled at the $53.50 channel top as USD steadied; NFP decides breakout vs. lower high.

  Silver tested $53.48, its highest since Oct 29, then eased toward ~$52.50–52.85 as the USD and Treasury yields recovered from their post-election drop.

• BTC/USD

  BTC recovering from the Binance-hack flush, last reported testing $79k resistance. News flow is ~3.5 days stale, so NFP (f/c 65K) is the live macro catalyst into a fragile, ETF-outflow-hit tape.

  No BTC-specific news in the last ~24h; the latest headlines are ~86h old.

• USOIL

  Oil's war risk premium is unwinding fast on the Democrats' midterm sweep and Iran-peace hopes. WTI is ~15% lower w/w and pinned at the ~$86 200-day SMA, with headline risk now two-sided.

  WTI extended Wednesday's ~9% plunge and traded ~$86.40–87.50 Thursday, testing support at the 200-day SMA near $86.