AI Market Pulse, Friday, 13 November 2026

The AI’s last read of the day on each major currency, gold, silver, oil and bitcoin.

• USD

  USD consolidating at 19-month highs above 103 DXY after a slightly soft PPI; ~85bp of Dec/Jan Fed hikes priced, so Warsh on Monday is the swing factor.

  October PPI undershot on the headline (6.5% y/y vs 6.6% f/c, 0.3% m/m vs 0.4%), while core matched at 5.0% y/y and 0.3% m/m.

• EUR

  EUR heavy near 19-month lows around 1.1045-1.1050 as Fed hike bets outrun ECB hawkishness. A December ECB hike is fully priced, so hawkish ECB talk gives the euro little lift.

  EUR/USD sat pinned near 1.1045-1.1060, close to its lowest since May 2025, as USD strength from bets on a 50bp December Fed hike dominated.

• GBP

  GBP heavy vs a surging USD, near 1.3230 after a ~0.9% weekly drop. Solid UK data and hawkish BoE pricing can't offset Fed hike bets. Sterling holds up better on crosses.

  US October PPI hit 6.5% YoY, the highest since 2022, cementing December Fed hike odds near 90% and pushing DXY to a 19-month high of 103.28.

• JPY

  JPY pinned near multi-month lows as USD/JPY holds ~160.00 on Fed-hike repricing. Tokyo's warnings cap the slide, and a priced December BoJ hike gives no lift.

  USD/JPY held above 160.00 for a second session after the midweek range breakout, keeping the pair on track for a third straight weekly gain (+0.91% w/w).

• CHF

  CHF the weakest major this week. USD/CHF is near 0.8395, its best weekly run in two years, as Fed hike bets widen the gap with the SNB's 0% rate. Stretched, with 0.8400 the pivot.

  USD/CHF made a fourth straight daily gain, from fresh one-month highs at 0.8368 to around 0.8395, near levels last seen in May 2025.

• AUD

  AUD heavy near 0.6775, at 10-month lows on Fed–RBA divergence. Hot US CPI and Fed hike bets dominate, and the RBA is seen done at 4.85%. Next catalyst: Bullock and the minutes on Tue.

  AUD/USD slipped from ~0.6810 in Asia to ~0.6775 (-0.43%) on Friday, losing the 0.6800 handle as US Treasury yields climbed further.

• CAD

  CAD heavy near one-month lows (USD/CAD ~1.4250) on Fed-BoC divergence. Firmer oil is giving a Friday reprieve, and Monday's Canada CPI is the swing factor for BoC December bets.

  USD/CAD paused a three/four-day rally just under the 1.4299 high.

• NZD

  NZD heavy at 19-month lows near 0.5527 on a four-day slide. Fed-RBNZ divergence dominates, and US PPI today decides whether 0.5527 breaks or a squeeze starts.

  NZD/USD fell for a fourth straight day to test the 0.5527 year-to-date / 19-month low.

• XAU/USD

  Gold heavy near $3,879 after a ~4.5% weekly rout; 5.15% US 10y yields, a 19-month-high USD and ~90% December Fed hike odds dominate. A softer PPI gave only a token bounce.

  Gold hit $3,852 on Thursday, its lowest since autumn 2025, as more Fed officials turned hawkish and the DXY held above 103.

• XAG/USD

  XAGUSD heavy near $49, just above the $48.87 YTD low, after a >5% weekly drop. A December Fed hike looks fully priced and bond-market stress is setting direction.

  Silver slipped back below $50 and trades around $49.

• BTC/USD

  BTC heavy near $68K after losing $70K. A hawkish Fed with hike talk, ETF outflows and Anthropic IPO capital rotation outweigh a cooler PPI. Sentiment is at extreme fear.

  BTC dropped about 4% on the day to a 12-week low near $68,000.

• USOIL

  WTI chopping in the high-$80s. Hormuz closure and IRGC threats set a floor, but a 9M bbl crude build, higher OPEC+ output and Fed-hike/strong-USD pressure cap rebounds near $88.20.

  WTI was capped at $88.20 and slipped back below $87 as bets on a steeper Fed tightening cycle and the 9M bbl EIA crude build outweighed fresh IRGC escalation.