AI Market Pulse, Wednesday, 28 October 2026

The AI’s last read of the day on each major currency, gold, silver, oil and bitcoin.

• USD

  USD softened on a 'sell-the-fact' Fed hold despite 2 hawkish dissents. With a December hike near-fully priced, Thursday's core PCE/GDP must run hot to revive the bid.

  The Fed held at 3.75–4.00% as expected, with two officials favoring a hike.

• EUR

  EUR bouncing off 17-month lows after Warsh's Fed presser hit USD, but the downtrend is intact. Thursday's ECB, expected to hold at 2.50% DFR, decides whether this is short-covering or a turn.

  EUR/USD hit a yearly low of 1.1113 pre-Fed amid French budget stress, wider OAT-Bund spreads and high energy prices.

• GBP

  GBP steadying near 1.3300-1.3330 after a 4-day slide. Neutral budget removed fiscal tail risk, a split-vote Fed hold gave a mild lift, and GBP stays firm vs EUR near 17-month highs.

  GBP/USD fell for a fourth day to a two-week low at 1.3275 on pre-event caution, then recovered to ~1.3327 (+0.17%).

• JPY

  JPY soft but contained: USD/JPY ~157.89 after a hawkish-leaning Fed hold, inside a 157.00-158.60 range. BoJ hold is priced, so Ueda's December signal is the swing factor.

  The Fed held at 3.75%-4.00% in a divided decision, with two officials favoring tightening.

• CHF

  CHF soft as USD/CHF posts a 4th straight up day near two-week highs (~0.8300). Fed outcome (18:00 GMT) is not yet in the inputs, so the near-term direction hinges on the post-Fed read.

  USD/CHF tagged 0.8313 then slipped back below 0.8300, holding about 0.5% up on the week ahead of the Fed.

• AUD

  AUD firm at a one-month high near 0.7054 after hot CPI and a USD dip post-Fed. A November RBA hike to 4.85% is ~78% priced. Price is pressing the 0.7050-0.7080 resistance zone.

  September CPI ran hot: 4.3% y/y vs 4.2% f/c, and 0.8% m/m vs 0.7% f/c.

• CAD

  CAD firmer into the close after a hawkish-lean BoC hike to 2.50% and a softer USD on Warsh's presser. USD/CAD is pinned just above the 1.4000 floor, with heavy BoC tightening already priced.

  The BoC hiked 25bp to 2.50% as expected (about 80% priced), citing energy-cost pass-through risk, and said another hike may be needed but there is 'no predetermined path.' CAD initially failed to gain, with USD/CAD chopping around 1.4050.

• NZD

  NZD heavy after RBNZ's surprise 4-3 hold at 2.75%. Pressing 0.5560/0.5550 multi-month support with USD firm into the Fed. Hawkish guidance keeps December alive but doesn't stop the bleed.

  The RBNZ unexpectedly held the OCR at 2.75% (consensus +25bp to 3.00%) in a narrow 4-3 vote.

• XAU/USD

  Gold heavy near $4,039 after a hawkish-leaning Fed hold (two hawkish dissents, 85% December hike odds). Rebound capped under $4,070; Thursday's core PCE and GDP are the next test.

  Gold gave back part of its two-day, oil-driven rebound and slipped about 0.2% to $4,039.

• XAG/USD

  Silver heavy near $53.60 after failing at $55 and holding $52.67 YTD lows; Fed held 4% as expected, ~84% Dec hike priced, oil-driven inflation fears weigh.

  XAG/USD stalled near $54.60 after Tuesday's bounce off the $52.67 YTD low.

• BTC/USD

  BTC in a post-FOMC macro holding pattern. The Fed held at 4% as expected, but no news covers the statement or presser tone. Next driver is Thursday's PCE/GDP cluster against sticky-inflation forecasts.

  The main event was the FOMC: rates held at 4% (f/c 4%, prev 4%).

• USOIL

  WTI back near $102 after a Houthi strike on Ras Tanura and an EIA draw. The Fed hold was a non-event. Price is pinned between a heavy war premium and Iran's answer to a Qatari peace draft, due by Friday.

  WTI ended a two-day losing streak, rising from below $100 to about $102.25 (+2.5%), with a session high just short of $103 before the Fed.