USD AI Market Pulse, Monday, 9 November 2026
JAFX AI’s read of the news on USD (US dollar), as it stood at the end of the day: read at 22:21 UTC.
Bias: two-way
USD giving back post-NFP gains, DXY back below 102.00 as oil and yields slide on US-Iran peace hopes. A December Fed hike stays the anchor into Tuesday's CPI, which leans two-way.
DXY fell about 0.4% to below 102.00 as the safe-haven bid unwound. Drivers were the Trump–Qatar meeting on an Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks, oil near two-month lows and the 10y yield near a two-month low. The 3-year auction cleared at 4.627% vs 4.932% prior, confirming lower front-end yields. Majors recovered: EUR/USD around 1.1200, GBP/USD 1.3420 and USD/JPY around 157.91, while gold rose more than 1% to about $4,117.
The past week
DXY hit 101.10 on Nov 4 after the midterm results. It then rebounded hard on a blowout October jobs report: NFP 165K vs 65K, AHE 0.4% m/m and 3.1% y/y, unemployment 4.1%, plus Michigan sentiment at 51 vs 48. It closed Friday at 102.11 (+0.51%). Monday's risk-on, oil-driven pullback erased part of that move. The NY Fed survey kept 1y inflation expectations at 3.9% but showed rising job fears.
The bigger picture
The Fed is in a tightening regime, with most officials projecting at least one more hike and Deutsche Bank calling for 25bp in both December and March. Firm activity, sticky inflation and a hawkish Fed support dips, while US-Iran de-escalation, lower oil and an AI-led equity rotation set the risk tone.
Positioning
The 165K NFP (f/c 65K) and hot wages made a December 25bp hike close to consensus (Commerzbank, Deutsche), and ING calls Friday's rally stretched. That makes the dollar more exposed to a soft core print that challenges the hike than to a hot one that only confirms it. Falling oil also skews headline CPI risk lower, and Deutsche already expects softer monthly prints.
Scenarios it set out
- Core CPI MoM ≥0.3% (f/c 0.2%) with headline ≥0.4% (f/c 0.3%) December hike priced in full, with talk of March building. Front-end yields rebound, DXY reclaims 102.00 and retests Friday's 102.11 close. EUR/USD rejected around 1.1190–1.1200; USD/JPY pushes toward the 158.68 200dma and 159.04.
- Core MoM 0.2% / headline 0.3% (in line) Hawkish path confirmed but no new impulse. USD tracks oil, Iran headlines and Fed speakers, and DXY chops around 102.00.
- Core MoM ≤0.1% or headline ≤0.2% (oil-driven softness) December hike odds trimmed and yields extend toward two-month lows. DXY slides toward the 101.10 post-midterm low; EUR/USD clears 1.1200 and GBP/USD eyes 1.3500. USD/JPY breaks toward 156.96 and gold extends above $4,117.
What it said to watch
- DXY 102.00 pivot, Friday's 102.11 close above, and the 101.10 Nov 4 low below
- CPI MoM components rather than YoY: Deutsche flags that y/y may not be computable because 2025 index levels are missing, so headline YoY (f/c 3.9%) could be noisy or absent
- Waller (09:00 UTC) and Bowman speeches on whether December is a done deal
- US-Iran ceasefire headlines and oil near two-month lows, which feed USD (safe-haven and inflation channels) and CAD
- 10y UST yield holding near its two-month low; front-end follow-through after the 4.627% 3y auction
- USD/JPY 158.68 200dma cap (support 156.96 / resistance 159.04)
Risk ahead, as it saw it
Tue Nov 10, 13:30 UTC: US October CPI (MoM f/c 0.3%, core MoM 0.2%, YoY 3.9%, core YoY 2.8%), preceded by Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and ADP 4-wk avg at 13:15 UTC, and followed by Bowman and Paulson speeches. Also Thu: Initial Jobless Claims (f/c 195K); Fri: PPI (no forecast available).