Tuesday stacks RBA, midterms and Swiss CPI while metals and tech carry last week's damage

Week Ahead, Sunday, 1 November 2026. Published 20:00 UTC.

Quiet: The weekend tape is flat, with indices averaging 0.01%, gold 0.04% and oil 0.01% over 24h. JPY (-0.03) and CHF (-0.01) are slightly soft, so there is no haven bid yet ahead of the first full session since Friday's flush.

In short

• Last week ended in liquidation. XAGUSD lost 8.83%, XAUUSD 3%, BTCUSD 5.47% and USTEC 2.09%, while the dollar softened as tech selling pulled yields lower and December Fed hike odds slipped to about 70%.
• Tuesday is the pivot. The RBA decides with a hike to 4.85% about 80% priced, Tokyo is shut for Culture Day, then Swiss CPI, Macklem, the US midterms and NZ Q3 jobs follow.
• US data runs from ISM Manufacturing (f/c 54.6) on Monday to ADP (f/c 65K) and ISM Services (f/c 54.8) on Wednesday. The desk has the BoE on Thursday with a hike to 4.00% fully priced, though it is not in our calendar feed. Ueda speaks Friday.

Themes

A yield-driven dollar meets the midterms and US data

The desk says the dollar's marginal driver is yields, which AI/tech equity stress and Iran-diplomacy hopes have pulled lower. With hike bets and 3.1% core PCE largely priced, soft ISM, JOLTS or ADP prints may travel further than beats. The midterms land on Tuesday with tech sentiment still fragile.

Priced-in hikes meet crowded shorts

An RBA hike to 4.85% is about 80% priced against -128.3K AUD shorts, and a BoE hike to 4.00% is fully priced against -79.4K GBP shorts. The desk sees plain delivery as no news, with only hawkish guidance or vote splits able to squeeze positioning. NZ jobs test December RBNZ pricing of about 90%.

Metals and crypto: flush done or still running?

Gold spec longs are still large at 186.5K, which the desk sees as room for further unwind on hawkish data. Silver is deeply oversold, so a soft US print could trigger sharp short-covering. For BTCUSD, ETF flows and supply overhangs such as Next Technology's 5,833 BTC are the swing factors.

Oil's war premium into the election

WTI tagged $104.00 last week, its highest since May 19, on attacks on Saudi sites and Hormuz shipping, though XTIUSD ended the week down 0.66%. The desk sees downside asymmetry if Iran accepts the Qatari draft, while the midterms are the trigger for feared US strikes. Oil also feeds inflation fears behind Fed hike bets and weighs on CHF.

What moved

• XAG/USD −8.83% A Friday slide of more than 5% broke $50 as cross-asset de-risking and hawkish Fed rhetoric hit, and the desk describes silver as in liquidation mode.
• XAU/USD −3.00% Gold broke $3,900 and the $3,886 floor to a YTD low even as December hike odds fell to 70%, which the desk reads as liquidation tied to the tech rout and the Binance hack.
• BTC/USD −5.47% The Binance breach drove a $643.2M spot ETF outflow on Friday, and phased withdrawal restarts have only partly steadied price.
• NZD/USD −1.19% The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% sent the pair to 0.5584 before 'hawkish hold' bank commentary pulled it back toward 0.5650.
• USTEC −2.09% A tech-earnings sell-off on AI-spending doubts sent money into Treasuries, and GOOGL fell 11.45% on the week.

Releases

• AUD Consumer Price Index (YoY) 4.3%. The hot print firmed RBA hike pricing to about 80%, yet AUDUSD ended the week up only 0.03%, stuck near 0.7020-0.7040.
• NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.75%. The surprise hold knocked NZDUSD to 0.5584, and despite a partial rebound the pair lost 1.19% on the week.
• USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 4%. The hawkish-Fed bounce faded, DXY closed after a third straight daily decline, and December hike odds slipped to about 70% from about 81%.
• USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized 3.4%. The beat did not lift the dollar, as tech-driven flows into Treasuries pulled yields lower.
• JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 1.25%. The 8-1 hawkish hold pushed USDJPY to 157.12, but Ueda's vague timing let it bounce, and the pair rose 0.48% on the week.
• EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) 2.8%. The undershoot helped cap the euro, and EURUSD fell back from 1.1214 toward 1.1140, ending the week down 0.39%.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1104 D1 support at the floor of the 1.1104-1.1276 consolidation held since early October.
• GBP/USD 1.3434 H4 resistance at the fresh high in a higher-high, higher-low sequence.
• USD/JPY 158.35 D1 resistance at the latest lower high in a contracting 156-159 structure.
• USD/CAD 1.3941 D1 support at the base of a falling-wedge downtrend from the 1.4299 double top.
• XAU/USD 3,870.26 D1 support just under the broken July-October floor, with D1 RSI at 28.5.
• XAG/USD 50.00 D1 resistance at the round number broken in Friday's slide, with D1 RSI at 20.

Ahead

• 01:45 UTC CNY RatingDog Manufacturing PMI The forecast is 51.6 vs 52.1 after last week's NBS manufacturing miss, with AUD and NZD exposed at the open.
• 07:00 UTC EUR Retail Sales (YoY) There is no forecast (prior -0.4%), and the desk sees soft euro-area data as the main threat to December ECB hike pricing in EURUSD.
• 15:00 UTC USD ISM Manufacturing PMI The forecast is 54.6 vs 54.5, with Prices Paid (f/c 77) as the check on Fed hike pricing; USD, XAUUSD and XAGUSD are exposed.
• 03:30 UTC AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement The guidance decides whether the RBA signals more after 4.85%, the scenario the desk says could squeeze crowded AUD shorts.
• 03:30 UTC AUD RBA Rate Statement The wording matters more than the move, since the desk, citing TD, sees a plain hike adding little.
• 03:30 UTC AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision A hike to 4.85% from 4.6% is about 80% priced against -128.3K spec shorts, so a hold would be the sharp surprise, with AUDUSD and AUDJPY exposed.
• 04:30 UTC AUD RBA Press Conference Bullock's presser is where any commitment to further tightening would land.
• 05:00 UTC USD US Midterm Elections Results come overnight, and the desk flags post-election Iran strike risk for oil and a possible broad USD selloff; USD, XTIUSD and US indices are exposed.
• 07:30 UTC CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) The forecast is 1.3% vs 1%, and only an upside surprise would challenge the SNB-on-hold-through-2027 consensus; USDCHF and EURCHF are exposed.
• 16:00 UTC CAD BoC's Governor Macklem speech About 100bp of BoC hikes are priced, so the desk sees more room for a CAD pullback if Macklem sounds cautious; USDCAD is exposed.
• 21:45 UTC NZD Employment Change The forecast is 0.4% vs 0.5%, and with a December hike about 90% priced, a soft print has more room to move NZDUSD.
• 21:45 UTC NZD Unemployment Rate The forecast is 5.5% vs 5.6%, and it is the swing factor for rich RBNZ pricing in NZDUSD and AUDNZD.
• 01:45 UTC CNY RatingDog Services PMI There is no forecast (prior 51.6), and it follows last week's NBS non-manufacturing miss, with AUD and NZD exposed.
• 10:00 UTC EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) There is no forecast (prior 0.6%), and it is another inflation test for December ECB hike pricing.
• 10:00 UTC EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) The forecast is 3.9% vs 3.8%, with crowded EUR shorts (-143.9K) exposed to a surprise either way.
• 10:00 UTC EUR Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) The forecast is 2.5% vs 2.5%, and it is the core trend that ECB speakers will be judged against; EURUSD and EURGBP are exposed.
• 10:00 UTC EUR Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) There is no forecast (prior 0.2%), and it is the monthly core momentum read behind ECB pricing.
• 13:15 UTC USD ADP Employment Change The forecast is 65K vs 90K, and the desk sees activity misses carrying more follow-through than beats; USD and metals are exposed.
• 15:00 UTC USD ISM Services PMI The forecast is 54.8 vs 54.9, and it feeds December Fed hike odds near 70%.
• 00:30 UTC AUD Trade Balance (MoM) There is no forecast (prior 495M), and it lands two days after the RBA, with AUDUSD exposed.

Watch the RBA statement and the midterm results on Tuesday. Together they decide whether last week's liquidation and soft-yield story carries into the rest of the week.