Metals and bitcoin claw back from Friday's lows as Asia opens into AUD data and China PMI

Asia Open, Monday, 2 November 2026. Published 23:30 UTC.

Quiet: Indices are up 0.22% on average over 24h and the yen is slightly soft (-0.06), a mild risk-positive tilt, but gold +0.5%, oil -0.6% and well-below-normal ranges keep this a quiet open rather than a clean risk-on one.

In short

• The weekend gap is small and leans to relief. XAGUSD is up 1.1%, XAUUSD 0.5% and BTCUSD 1.52% since the Week Ahead, as Binance's phased withdrawals restart without disorder.
• FX ranges are tight, with USDJPY at 157.626 and AUDUSD at 0.7029. The outlier is EURCHF, up 0.42% on the day after a 0.3% jump in 15 minutes, with no clear driver in our feed.
• Asia calendar: AUD TD-MI inflation and building permits (f/c 2.1%), then China's RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (f/c 51.6, prev 52.1) at 01:45 UTC. Tuesday's RBA remains the week's AUD event.

Themes

AUD weakest into RBA week, China PMI first

AUD is bottom of the 24h strength table at -0.07 after an S&P Global Manufacturing PMI of 49.6 against 49.7 expected, while AUDUSD sits at 0.7029 inside its 0.7009-0.7040 H4 range. AUDNZD is the exception, up 0.19% on the day after a flagged 0.24% 15-minute jump. A hike to 4.85% is about 80% priced for Tuesday, so the desk sees a hold as the bigger asymmetric surprise. Before that, China's PMI is the session's swing input.

Metals and crypto: relief, not repair

XAUUSD at 3893.41 has lifted off a 3881.43 day low but sits under the $3,900 level the desk watches, with D1 RSI at 25. XAGUSD at 49.643 remains below its 50 resistance after Friday's break, and BTCUSD at 78094.885 is still below the $80,000-80,100 zone. Spec positioning and ETF outflows mean the desk still reads this as a bounce inside downtrends.

What moved

• XAG/USD +1.10% This is a bounce from deeply oversold levels after Friday's >5% liquidation below $50, but there is no new silver-specific catalyst in our feed and price is still under that level.
• BTC/USD +1.52% Binance resumed phased withdrawals after its $6.3 billion breach and the platform reopened without disorder, which steadied majors near $78K.
• EUR/CHF +0.42% The platform flagged a 0.3% rise in 15 minutes at 23:06 UTC, with no single clear driver in our news feed and no CHF data until Real Retail Sales at 07:30 UTC.
• XTI/USD −0.60% Weekend Iran headlines cut both ways, with warnings of expanded strikes despite progress in talks, and there is no single clear driver for the dip in our feed; WTI is holding at 103.

Levels to watch

• XAU/USD 3,870.26 D1 support just under Friday's YTD low, inside a lower-high/lower-low staircase from the 4510.88 September peak.
• AUD/USD 0.7040 Top of the 0.7009-0.7040 H4 range, where an upside break already failed once.
• USD/JPY 157.40 Nearest D1 support inside the 156.08-159.03 range that has held since late September, close to last week's post-BoJ settle.

Ahead

• 00:00 UTC AUD TD-MI Inflation Gauge (YoY) This is the last inflation read before Tuesday's RBA, which has a hike to 4.85% about 80% priced (previous 2.8%, no forecast). AUDUSD, AUDJPY and AUDNZD are exposed.
• 00:30 UTC AUD Building Permits (MoM) A rebound to 2.1% is forecast after -6.1%, following an S&P Global Manufacturing PMI of 49.6 that kept the AUD growth backdrop soft.
• 01:45 UTC CNY RatingDog Manufacturing PMI This is the main Asia-session print, forecast at 51.6 after 52.1. It feeds directly into AUD and NZD and into Asian equity sentiment after last week's AI-related selling.
• 05:00 UTC INR HSBC Manufacturing PMI This is a regional manufacturing read late in the Asia session (f/c 54.7). It has limited direct exposure on the major pairs.
• 07:00 UTC EUR Retail Sales (MoM) This print hands off to Europe with 0.4% forecast after 1.3%. Our EUR digest sees softer data feeding an already crowded EUR short, so EURUSD and EURCHF are in focus.
• 07:30 UTC CHF Real Retail Sales (YoY) Forecast 3% after 3.2%, this is the first Swiss test after overnight EURCHF strength and ahead of Tuesday's CPI.

Until Europe arrives, the two tests are whether China's PMI at 01:45 UTC shakes AUD out of its tight range and whether gold holds above Friday's $3,880 YTD low as Asian liquidity builds.