AUDUSD slips under 0.7000 into the RBA, with Tokyo shut for Culture Day

Asia Open, Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Published 23:30 UTC.

Mixed: Signals are mixed and there is no clean risk read. CHF leads the majors (0.7) and gold is up 1.32% over 24h, while indices are flat on average (-0.03%) and JPY is soft (-0.27).

In short

• AUD is still the weakest major (-0.51) and AUDUSD has edged below the 0.7000 handle to 0.69965 ahead of the RBA at 03:30 UTC. The forecast is a hike to 4.85% from 4.6%. Bullock's press conference follows at 04:30 UTC.
• Tokyo is closed for Culture Day, so liquidity is thin. Overnight ranges are a fraction of normal: USDJPY at 0.19x and XAUUSD at 0.12x. USDJPY sits at 157.946, the top of its 157.00–158.00 box.
• US midterm voting opens at 05:00 UTC and Swiss CPI lands at 07:30 UTC (y/y f/c 1.3% vs 1%). NZ building permits fell -7.9% m/m overnight without moving the Kiwi.

Themes

RBA: the hike is priced, guidance decides

Markets largely expect 25bp to 4.85%, and Monday's AUD underperformance looked like de-risking rather than a new view. AUDUSD is testing the 0.7000 handle, which Societe Generale flags as the key line. Resistance sits at 0.7049/0.7068 on the daily chart.

Thin Tokyo, election overnight

With the TSE shut for Culture Day, JPY pairs are trading in a light market. USDJPY is pressing the 158.00 top of its range while intervention warnings stand. The NZD stays heavy just above 0.5600, with Q3 jobs data due later Tuesday at 21:45 UTC, just as US midterm results start to flow.

What moved

• AUD/USD −0.06% The desk reads continued pre-RBA position trimming as the driver: specs are deep net short (CFTC -128.3K) and the hike is largely priced.
• AUD/NZD +0.20% The NZ building permits slump (-7.9% m/m) is the only fresh local news; beyond that there is no single clear driver in our news feed.
• USD/JPY +0.07% The yen stays soft as speculative JPY longs built into the BoJ sit offside, with Katayama's intervention warnings capping the topside near 158.00.

Releases

• NZD Building Permits s.a. (MoM) -7.9%. NZDUSD is unchanged on the day (0%) at 0.56164, so the slump added little fresh pressure beyond the existing soft domestic-demand picture.

Levels to watch

• AUD/USD 0.69936 H4 support just below the price after the range floor broke; it sits under the 0.7000 handle.
• USD/JPY 158.00 H4 resistance at the top of the 157.00–158.00 near-term range, inside a contracting pattern of higher lows and lower highs.
• NZD/USD 0.5600 D1 support at the October base, which OCBC flags as the key near-term level within the downtrend.

Ahead

• 03:30 UTC AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision A hike to 4.85% from 4.6% is expected and largely priced, so the statement and SoMP forecasts will set the tone for AUDUSD, AUDJPY and AUDNZD.
• 04:30 UTC AUD RBA Press Conference Bullock's peak-rate signalling is the swing factor: an open door to more hikes could squeeze heavy AUD shorts, while 'near-peak' language risks a sell-the-fact move.
• 05:00 UTC USD US Midterm Elections Voting opens with results due overnight. Control of Congress is a two-way risk for USD, gold and US indices, and the desk sees more downside asymmetry for the dollar.
• 07:30 UTC CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) The forecast is 1.3% vs 1%. A hot print would challenge the priced SNB hold at 0%, which matters for CHF, the strongest major, and for USDCHF near 0.8192.

Watch how Bullock frames the peak rate at 04:30 UTC, and whether AUDUSD holds the 0.7000 area, before midterm results start to arrive.