AUD stays weakest after RBA's split-vote hike; Swiss CPI opens Europe

London Open, Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Published 07:00 UTC.

Mixed: The tone leans defensive: CHF is the strongest major (0.62) and indices are down 0.68% on average over 24h, but gold is only up 0.31% on 24h and JPY is flat (-0.06), so this is not a clean risk-off.

In short

• The RBA hiked 25bp to 4.85% as forecast, but a 6-3 split and a gloomy growth outlook were read as a dovish hike. AUD is the weakest major (-0.63) and AUDUSD sits at 0.69801, down 0.25% since the Asia Open note. AUDNZD is down 0.36%.
• Metals slid and oil bounced. Reports of US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, and Qatari-mediated talks ending with no breakthrough, revived the energy premium. XTIUSD is up 1.67% to 98.51, XAGUSD down 2.81% to 49.173 and XAUUSD down 0.71% to 3917.
• Europe opens with Swiss CPI at 07:30 UTC (y/y f/c 1.3% vs 1%), with CHF the strongest major (0.62). US midterm voting is under way, followed by JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC and BoC's Macklem at 16:00 UTC.

Themes

AUD's 'dovish hike' is home-grown weakness

The RBA's fifth hike of the year came with three of nine members wanting a hold and a warning that unemployment will climb, so the market reads 4.85% as at or near the peak. AUD failed to rally even with the USD soft. AUDUSD has broken its H4 range floor near 0.7013 and is pressing the 0.697 day low. AUD's next domestic print is the S&P Global Services PMI at 22:00 UTC (f/c 47.8), with NZ Q3 jobs at 21:45 UTC driving AUDNZD.

Qeshm headlines put oil back in the driver's seat

Monday's diplomacy-driven oil flush partly reversed in Asia on the Qeshm strike reports and the lack of a breakthrough in Qatari mediation, lifting XTIUSD to 98.51. Silver bore the brunt via Fed-hike pricing, down 2.81% since the last note and through its 49.333 H4 support, while US index futures eased (US500 -0.35%, USTEC -0.45%). JP225 fell 0.98% with Tokyo cash shut for Culture Day, a move with no single clear driver in our news feed.

CHF leads into CPI as midterms keep USD in a holding pattern

CHF is the strongest major and USDCHF has set a new H4 low near 0.8176 into this morning's CPI, a move the desk attributes to USD weakness rather than Swiss news. Elsewhere the USD is drifting with oil as US midterm voting runs. USDJPY is boxed at 157.875 on a range just 0.22x normal, and EURUSD and GBPUSD barely moved overnight. A soft German retail sales print has EUR slightly weaker against GBP ahead of Thursday's BoE decision.

What moved

• AUD/USD −0.25% The RBA's 25bp hike was fully priced, so the market traded the 6-3 split and Bullock's warning on growth and unemployment, which leaves AUD unable to benefit from a soft USD.
• AUD/NZD −0.36% AUD sold across the board after the RBA while NZD held up on December RBNZ hike expectations, and the platform flagged a -0.66% AUDNZD move around the decision.
• XTI/USD +1.67% Dip-buyers returned after Iran said talks via Qatari mediators ended with no breakthrough and the WSJ reported a US strike on Qeshm Island near the Strait of Hormuz.
• XAG/USD −2.81% Monday's oversold bounce reversed as the Qeshm strike reports revived energy-inflation fears, with December Fed hike odds near 73%.
• XAU/USD −0.71% Gold drifted back below $3,950 in Asia as yields rebounded and Fed hike bets persisted after Monday's firm ISM Manufacturing print.

Releases

• AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision 4.85%. The hike matched forecast but read dovish on the 6-3 split. AUDUSD is down 0.25% since the last note to 0.69801, below 0.7000, and AUDNZD is down 0.36%.

Levels to watch

• AUD/USD 0.6970 H4 support at the day's low, reached after the two-week range floor near 0.7013 gave way post-RBA.
• USD/CHF 0.81761 Fresh H4 low set after the 0.8192 range floor broke; lower highs since 0.8313 frame the structure into Swiss CPI.
• EUR/USD 1.1177 First H4 support and the day's low, inside a higher-low sequence from 1.1104 that remains capped below the 1.1237–1.1260 line.
• USD/CAD 1.3941 D1 support at the 61.8% retrace of the Sep–Oct rally and the base of the H4 falling wedge, in play around Macklem's speech.

Ahead

• 07:00 UTC TRY Consumer Price Index (YoY) Turkish CPI is forecast at 29.56% from 29.73%, with Commerzbank flagging that inflation risks keep pressure on the lira.
• 07:30 UTC CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) The forecast is 1.3% vs 1% previously and the desk sees it as priced. A hot print has more room to lift CHF than a soft one has to hurt it, which exposes USDCHF, EURCHF and CHFJPY.
• 07:30 UTC CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) The m/m forecast is 0% (previous 0%) and lands alongside the headline y/y print driving CHF crosses.
• 15:00 UTC USD JOLTS Job Openings The forecast is 7.13M vs 7.079M. With December Fed hike odds around 73%, the desk sees soft labour data as having more room to hit USD, gold and indices than a firm print.
• 15:00 UTC USD Factory Orders (MoM) Orders are forecast to rebound 1.2% from 0.1%, released alongside JOLTS as USD trades closely with oil and midterm headlines.
• 16:00 UTC CAD BoC's Governor Macklem speech A December hike is largely priced, so any acknowledgement of stalled growth (manufacturing PMI 49.6) has more room to move USDCAD and CAD crosses than hawkish confirmation.

Into the US session, the main thing is whether Qeshm and Hormuz headlines keep lifting oil, since that is what is driving the USD, gold and silver while midterm results start to come in.