Blowout NFP caps a week of oil flush and AI sell-off; dollar finishes on top

Week in Review, Friday, 6 November 2026. Published 22:15 UTC.

Mixed: Friday ended with indices up an average 0.52% over 24h and the yen flat (JPY 0.06), but the dollar dominates (USD 0.73) and commodity currencies sit at the bottom (CAD -0.53, AUD -0.47, NZD -0.46) after a week defined by an AI-led equity rout.

In short

• US payrolls rewrote the end of the week. NFP printed 165K vs 65K expected, wages ran 0.4% m/m and 3.1% y/y, and unemployment fell to 4.1%. December Fed hike odds are back at ~77%, up from 66% on Thursday, and USD tops the 24h strength table at 0.73. EURUSD erased its weekly gains (-0.13% on the week) and GBPUSD broke below 1.3400.
• Two big repricings came before that. WTI fell -12.39% on the week as the Democratic sweep and Iran-peace hopes stripped out risk premium. An AI-led equity sell-off left USTEC -4.9%, JP225 -6.6% and NVDA -8.19% on the week, despite Friday's rebound. Metals went the other way: gold +5.1%, silver +5.82% and platinum +7.49%.
• Rate hikes didn't help the currencies that got them. The BoE's hike to 4% was sold as fully priced. A dovish 6-3 RBA hike to 4.85% left AUDUSD -2.36% at its lowest since late March. Canada lost 4.7K jobs, and USDCAD rose +1.09% on the week. Next week hinges on US CPI on Tuesday at 13:30 UTC (headline f/c 0.3%, core 0.2% m/m).

Themes

Payrolls revive the hawkish Fed

December Fed hike odds swung during the week, from 79–82% early on to 66% by Thursday, then back to ~77% after the 165K NFP, firmer wages and a Michigan sentiment beat (51 vs 48). The desk's read is that much of the hawkish case is now in the price, which makes Tuesday's CPI asymmetric for the dollar. Fed's Daly said the jobs data gives room for tightening, and Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin and Waller speak before CPI.

Oil risk premium flushed out

WTI fell -12.39% on the week as the Democratic sweep and Iran-peace hopes drained the premium, hitting the $86 200-day SMA, while Brent dropped below $100 for the first time since Oct 7. Renewed Hormuz tanker attacks and Trump's warning to Iran supported a two-day bounce to around $90.50. With less premium left, the desk sees escalation headlines carrying outsized squeeze risk, and weekend US-Iran news comes first.

AI sell-off hits indices; metals climb

A global sell-off in AI-infrastructure stocks left USTEC -4.9%, US500 -2.64% and JP225 -6.6% on the week, with NVDA -8.19% and TSLA -9.6%. Friday brought a partial bounce: USTEC was +1.7% on the day and NVDA +3.39% over 24h. Haven demand favoured USD and JPY, but USDJPY stayed pinned in its 157–159 range. Gold, silver and platinum all finished the week higher despite Friday's dollar bid.

Hikes that didn't help: GBP, AUD, NZD

The BoE's hike to 4% and the RBA's 6-3 move to 4.85% were both treated as priced or dovish, leaving GBPUSD below 1.3400 and AUDUSD at its lowest since late March. NZD hit 19-month lows after a weak jobs report, with Saturday's NZ election showing no majority in sight. The desk notes positioning is already stretched: AUD net shorts are at -129.5K and AUDUSD's H4 RSI is at 22.

What moved

• XTI/USD −12.39% The Democratic sweep and Iran-peace hopes stripped out the risk premium, taking WTI to a two-month low near the $86 200-day SMA before renewed Hormuz tanker attacks steadied it around $90.50.
• USTEC −4.90% A global sell-off in AI-infrastructure stocks drove the week's losses, and Friday's +1.7% rebound only trimmed them.
• JP225 −6.60% The AI/chip equity rout hit Tokyo hardest among the indices, alongside safe-haven yen demand.
• AUD/USD −2.36% A dovish 6-3 RBA hike removed rate support, then risk-off flows and the 165K NFP pushed the pair to its lowest since late March.
• XAU/USD +5.10% Gold rebounded off a one-year low as the dollar softened after the Democratic sweep, reaching a $4,146 two-week high before the blowout NFP knocked it back toward $4,060.
• USD/CAD +1.09% The pair erased its post-election drop to 1.3933 after US payrolls beat while Canada lost 4.7K jobs and unemployment rose to 6.7%.

Releases

• USD Nonfarm Payrolls 165K. It triggered a broad USD rally: DXY reclaimed 102.00, EURUSD fell -0.68% on the day, GBPUSD broke 1.3400 and gold slid from $4,106.
• USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) 3.1%. Firmer wages reinforced the hawkish repricing, lifting December Fed hike odds to ~77% from 66% on Thursday.
• CAD Net Change in Employment -4.7K. Landing alongside the US beat, it was a double blow for CAD: USDCAD jumped +0.8% on the day to around 1.4120 as BoC hike pricing came into question.
• GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 4%. The 25bp hike was sold as fully priced, with February the consensus for the next move; GBPUSD double-topped at 1.3500 and ended the week -0.28%.
• AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision 4.85%. The 6-3 split read as dovish and removed rate support, leaving AUDUSD -2.36% on the week.
• CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) 1.5%. The beat pulled SNB hike bets forward and pushed USDCHF to two-month lows; EURCHF ended the week -0.69%.
• NZD Employment Change -0.1%. The weak jobs mix faded RBNZ hike odds, and NZDUSD went on to fresh 19-month lows, -1.56% on the week.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1104 Floor of the five-week 1.1104–1.1276 range; price closed the week just above it after Friday's slide.
• GBP/USD 1.3400 Broke on Friday after the 1.3500 double top; the pair is now making lower lows beneath it.
• USD/JPY 159.03 Top of the compressing six-week 156.08–159.03 range of lower highs and higher lows.
• USD/CAD 1.4126 Immediate H4 resistance just above the week's close, after an impulsive move higher from the 1.3929 swing low; H4 RSI is stretched at 76.
• AUD/USD 0.6833 Next H4 support beneath the fresh 0.6854 lower low, which the desk flags as the nine-month low.
• XAU/USD 4,000.00 D1 support the desk calls the post-election pivot, below the 4057.79 level being tested.

Ahead

• 17:25 UTC GBP BoE's Governor Bailey speech The desk sees a February hike as consensus; any hint that December is in play would challenge that and matters for GBPUSD and EURGBP.
• 13:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) Headline is forecast at 0.3% after 0.6% and is the first test of whether ~77% December hike pricing holds; USD pairs, gold and US indices are most exposed.
• 13:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) Core is forecast at 0.2%; the desk flags that a soft core print could unwind a chunk of Friday's dollar rally, while a hot one adds only incrementally to pricing already in place.
• 07:00 UTC EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) It is forecast at 2.8%; sticky ECB December-hike pricing is EUR's main support, and specs are net short EUR at €-157.8K, so EURUSD is exposed to a surprise either way.
• 09:45 UTC EUR ECB's President Lagarde speech It comes right after HICP; any shift in December signalling feeds directly into EURUSD and EURCHF.
• 07:00 UTC GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Q3 is forecast at 0.7% after 0.5%; growth momentum feeds the BoE debate on December versus February timing for GBPUSD.

Weekend NZ election and US-Iran headlines come first, then Tuesday's 13:30 UTC US CPI tests whether ~77% December Fed hike pricing and the dollar's Friday rally hold.