US CPI on Tuesday tests 77% Dec Fed hike odds after NFP put the dollar back on top

Week Ahead, Sunday, 8 November 2026. Published 20:00 UTC.

Quiet: The weekend gauges are flat: indices 0% over 24h, gold 0%, oil 0.01%, and the JPY (-0.02) and CHF (0) strength scores barely moving. The open therefore carries last week's AI-led risk-off tilt rather than any fresh signal.

In short

• The week turns on US CPI, Tue 13:30 UTC. Headline MoM is forecast at 0.3% (prior 0.6%) and core MoM at 0.2% (prior 0.3%); no YoY forecasts are in our feed. With a December hike ~77% priced and DXY back above 102.00, the desk reads a soft core print as having more room to unwind the dollar than a hot one has to extend it. Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Monday and Waller Tuesday at 09:00 UTC.
• Europe carries the second tier. BoE Governor Bailey speaks Mon 17:25 UTC, HICP YoY is due Wed 07:00 UTC (f/c 2.8%), Lagarde speaks Wed 09:45 and Thu 19:30 UTC, and UK Q3 GDP lands Thu 07:00 UTC (QoQ f/c 0.7%). EUR shorts are crowded at CFTC €-157.8K, so the ECB's sticky December-hike pricing matters for EURUSD. For GBP, a February BoE move remains the consensus.
• Last week left the commodity currencies stretched at their lows. AUDUSD is at a 7-month low, NZDUSD at a 19-month low and CFTC AUD shorts sit at -129.5K. WTI is sitting near $90 after its risk-premium flush, with US-Iran headlines the swing factor. The NZD desk flagged gap risk from the weekend election, and no result is in our feed.

Themes

CPI decides whether the Fed repricing runs further

NFP took December hike odds back to ~77% and DXY above 102.00, so much of the hawkish move is already in the price. Gold, silver and BTC digests all see more room for a soft core print to move them than a hot one. Monday's Fed speakers and Waller on Tuesday morning will show whether officials endorse the pricing; Daly already said the jobs data gives room for tightening.

Europe's speakers vs crowded EUR and GBP shorts

Specs added to EUR shorts (CFTC €-157.8K), while ECB December-hike pricing remains the euro's main support into Wednesday's HICP and two Lagarde appearances. GBP specs are still net short (£-59.8K), with February the BoE consensus. Bailey, Lombardelli, Pill and Thursday's Q3 GDP decide whether December comes back into play.

Commodity FX stretched at the lows

AUDUSD sits near its 7-month low and NZDUSD at a 19-month low, with RBA and RBNZ rate support gone and AUD shorts deep at -129.5K. Neither has high-impact domestic data this week, so risk sentiment and US yields lead. USDCAD's jobs-driven breakout leans on the BoC Summary of Deliberations (Tue 18:30 UTC) and oil, where WTI's -12.39% week leaves US-Iran headlines as two-way gap risk.

AI sell-off keeps haven flows in play

The AI-led equity rout has been dollar-positive rather than euro-positive. It pressed the JPY crosses lower even as USDJPY stayed pinned in its 157.00–159.00 range. The JPY digest says a break needs a fresh shock: deeper risk-off or explicit BoJ hike signalling on one side, easing equity stress and firm US yields on the other.

What moved

• XTI/USD −12.39% The Democratic sweep led markets to price a faster end to the Iran war, stripping out risk premium down to the $86 200-day SMA before Hormuz tanker attacks and Trump's Iran rhetoric steadied prices near $90.50.
• US500 −2.64% A global sell-off in AI-infrastructure stocks drove the drop and fed safe-haven dollar demand across FX.
• XAU/USD +5.10% The post-election rally lifted gold to $4,106 early Friday, and the blowout NFP knocked it back only to ~$4,050-4,060, keeping it above $4,000.
• AUD/USD −2.36% The RBA's cautious guidance on its hike to 4.85%, AI-led risk-off and the US payrolls beat unwound the midweek rebound above 0.7000 and took the pair to a 7-month low at 0.6862.
• USD/CAD +1.09% A double jobs blow (US +165K, Canada -4.7K) erased the post-election drop to 1.3933 and pushed the pair to ~1.4120.

Releases

• USD Nonfarm Payrolls 165K. The dollar was bid across the board: GBP/USD broke 1.3400 to around 1.3371, EUR/USD slid to ~1.1132 and gold fell to $4,050-4,060 as December hike odds rose to 77% from 66%.
• USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.4%. Hot wages reinforced the hawkish read and revived the US-Japan yield gap, lifting USD/JPY from its 157.26 weekly low back to about 158.30.
• AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision 4.85%. The hike was taken as dovish: OIS now prices no further RBA hikes after 4.85%, removing rate support from AUD into its slide to 7-month lows.
• GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 4%. The hike was sold as fully priced, with February the consensus for the next move, and GBPUSD finished the week -0.28% once NFP hit.
• CAD Net Change in Employment -4.7K. Landing at the same time as the US beat, it sent USD/CAD up ~0.78% to ~1.4120 and put residual BoC hike pricing in question.
• CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) 1.5%. SNB hike bets were pulled forward and USD/CHF stalled at two-month lows near 0.8125, with USDCHF -0.49% on the week.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1104 Floor of the flat 1.1104–1.1273 range in place since mid-October; price at 1.11419 is sitting just above it.
• GBP/USD 1.3400 Broken on Friday after the 1.3500 double top resolved lower; now the first H4 resistance, with RSI at 26.
• USD/JPY 159.03 Top of the 6-week 156.08–159.03 range, where highs have been edging lower while lows rise.
• AUD/USD 0.6833 Next D1 support below 0.6854 in a lower-high/lower-low chain from the 0.7237 September peak; D1 RSI is 35.8.
• USD/CAD 1.4158 First D1 resistance after Friday's break out of the base above 1.3929; the H4 RSI reads 79.
• XAU/USD 4,146.92 Last week's high and the first D1 resistance; the lower-high line from early September has been broken.

Ahead

• 01:30 UTC CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) China CPI is forecast at 0.8% from 0.9% and sets the Asia-open tone for AUD and NZD, which start the week at multi-month lows.
• 17:25 UTC GBP BoE's Governor Bailey speech With February the consensus for the next hike, the test is whether Bailey pulls December into play or echoes Pill's dovish tint; GBPUSD and EURGBP are exposed.
• 13:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) Headline is forecast at 0.3% after 0.6%. This is the week's main test of ~77% December hike pricing for USD, gold, silver, BTC and US indices.
• 13:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) Core is forecast at 0.2% after 0.3%. Desk digests see a soft core print as having more room to move USD and gold than a hot one.
• 13:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) The prior reading was 3.7%, with no forecast in our feed, so the annual rate will be read against that and the Fed's 2% goal.
• 13:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) The prior reading was 2.6%, with no forecast provided; it rounds out the inflation picture that feeds directly into December Fed pricing.
• 07:00 UTC EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) Forecast at 2.8%, unchanged. A hot print could test crowded EUR shorts, which the EUR digest flags as vulnerable to a short-covering bounce.
• 09:45 UTC EUR ECB's President Lagarde speech Sticky ECB December-hike pricing is EUR's main support, so any shift in Lagarde's signalling matters for EURUSD.
• 07:00 UTC GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Q3 is forecast at 0.7% from 0.5%, alongside soft IP and manufacturing forecasts, and feeds the December-versus-February BoE debate for GBP.
• 07:00 UTC GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) The prior reading was 1.4%, with no forecast in our feed; it lands with the QoQ print and the monthly data.
• 19:30 UTC EUR ECB's President Lagarde speech Lagarde's second appearance of the week follows HICP and US CPI, giving a fresh read on December ECB pricing for EUR crosses.
• 13:30 UTC USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) The prior reading was 5%, with no forecast provided; it closes the week's US inflation read and Fed pricing into the weekend.

Until Tuesday's 13:30 UTC CPI, keep an eye on whether Monday's Fed speakers and Waller endorse the ~77% December hike pricing, and whether DXY holds above 102.00.